About Influences 0n our import and export trade and Countermeasures of Longterm Appreciation of RMB.docx

1、About Influences 0n our import and export trade and Countermeasures of Longterm Appreciation of RMBAbout Influences 0n our import and export trade and Countermeasures of Long-term Appreciation of RMB中文摘要:自2005年7月21日起，我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度;与此同时，人民币汇率调整为1美元=8.11元，升值2%。由此，人民币在经历亚洲金融危机以来

2、的稳定和实际升值以后，终于拉开了正式升值的序幕。根据各方面的分析，到2020年以前，人民币将处于长期升值的趋势之中。众所周知，汇率对进出口贸易具有较大的影响，因为汇率反映的是一种货币相对于另一种货币的价格，所以汇率的改变将直接传导给进出口商品和服务的价格，从而影响到进出口数量。本文研究的范围是人民币升值给进出口贸易带来的影响，重点研究2007 年以来人民币加速升值对进出口贸易带来的影响，包括正面影响、负面影响、出口、进口、进出口商品结构、贸易方式等。本研究基于权威部门的统计数据，利用国际贸易相关理论，采用实证和分析相结合的方法，试图全面分析人民币升值尤其是加速升值对我国进出口贸易的影响，以及面

3、对人民币升值应该的一些措施。AbstractSince July 21, 2005, China began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies. At the same time, RMB exchange rate adjusts to $1 = 8.11 RMB with an appreciation by 2%. Thus, after the Asian fina

4、ncial crisis in the experience of the stability and a real appreciation, RMB finally starts the prelude of appreciation. According to the analysis, by 2020, the RMB will be long before the upward trend. As is known, rate of exchange has great influence on import and export trade, because the exchang

5、e rate is a kind of currency reflects the relative to another currency exchange. So the change of exchange rate will directly affect import and export prices of goods and services, thus affecting import and export quantity. This research is about the influence of RMB appreciation for import and expo

6、rt trade, including the impact of positive effects and negative effects, import, export, import and export commodity structure and ways of trade, etc. This research is based on the authority of the statistics department, using the theory of international trade, empirical and analysis using the metho

7、d of combining, attempts to comprehensively analyze the appreciation of RMB appreciation on China in particular, to accelerate the import and export trade, and some of the measures should be taken to handle RMB appreciation.INTRODUCTIONIn different period of economic development, Chinas RMB exchange

8、 rate mechanism adopted different. In July 2005, Chinas RMB exchange rate formation mechanism was reformed with a reference to basket of currencies of mediation to implement a managed floating exchange rate system. Since then, RMB went in to a long-term slow appreciation track. Especially since 2007

9、, the RMB appreciation has accelerated the pace of record highs. To December 24, 2007, the RMB against the U.S. dollar breakthrough 7.3315:1and has appreciated 6.09%. And Chinas import and export trade has also experienced a tortuous history. Since the reform and opening up policy, Chinas import and

10、 export went into the track of healthy development, especially in recent years, Chinas foreign trade volume, quality and structure have achieved degrees of improvement. In 2002, China became the worlds fifth largest trading nation. In 2004 China made it 6years earlier to implement a long term goal t

11、o gain a 10000 billon foreign trade, and finally the total number was 1.15477 trillion U.S. dollars. Chinas foreign trade sharesof 12% of the world as the worlds third largest trading power, behind the United States and Germany. Since then, Chinas import and export trade continues to lead a double-d

12、igit growth. In 2006, Chinas foreign trade volume reached 1.7604 trillion U.S dollars, in 2007 breaking two trillion U.S dollars, the total foreign trade reached 2.167 trillion U.S. dollars.How much impact on Chinas import and export trade does RMB appreciation have? What are the positive effects an

13、d negative effects? What kind of influence does RMB appreciation have on Chinas import and export quantity, quality, amount, structure and ways of trade? This article will focus in January 2007 since the revaluation, for example, from the perspective of empirical and statistical to make an analysis

14、of RMB appreciation on Chinas import and export trade.As is known, rate of exchange has great influence on import and export trade, because the exchange rate is a kind of currency reflects the relative to another currency exchange. So the change of exchange rate will directly affect import and expor

15、t prices of goods and services, thus affecting import and export quantity. RMB appreciation on Chinas import and export trade can be divided into positive and negative effects of both.?RMB appreciations positive impact on the import and export trade1.1 To some extent to improve the trade environment

16、 in ChinaFor a long time, China implements mercantile system, that is to bring down production costs, expand product in the international market share and exports to earn more foreign exchange. Under the guidance of this line of thought, Chinas trade surplus grows, foreign exchange reserves have risen steadily, and only years of effort China became theworlds first, and its amount is larger and larger than the second one. To some extent, surplus and fore