经济学人双语版楼市温和战略.docx
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经济学人双语版楼市温和战略
2019年经济学人双语版:
楼市,温和战略
篇一:
【经济学人】中英双语阅读精粹(1998-20XX年版(中英版))
CONTENTS
[20XX.08.06]Thesunalsorises日升如故,阴霾潜伏.....................................................................1
[20XX.08.06]Knottingthepurse-strings捂紧钱袋子.......................................................................4
[20XX.01.22]Howtoplaychickenandlose如何玩火自焚..............................................................7
[20XX.10.19]Goingcritical,defyingtheworld................................................................................13
[20XX.10.05]Thesearchfortalent寻找人才...................................................................................16
[20XX.09.18]Sweden'sModeraterevolution瑞典的温和革命........................................................20
[20XX.08.24]Whokilledthenewspaper?
.......................................................................................22
[20XX.08.21]Water,watereverywhere?
........................................................................................26
[20XX.08.10]Butdidtheybuytheirownfurniture?
.........................................................................28
[20XX.08.03]Somethingnew新气象..............................................................................................31
[20XX.07.27]Thefutureofglobalisation全球化前景......................................................................33
[20XX.07.13]Acrisiswidens危机扩大..........................................................................................36
[20XX.06.21]Awarmembrace.......................................................................................................40
[20XX.05.11]JaneJacobs..............................................................................................................42
[20XX.04.27]Inaleagueofitsown................................................................................................45
[20XX.04.06]Thestateislookingafteryou国家在照管你.............................................................49
[20XX.03.23]Colbertwashere柯尔贝尔回来了............................................................................52
[20XX.02.09]Passtheparcel..........................................................................................................56
[20XX.02.09][GlobalAgenda]Foodfirmsandfat-fighters.............................................................58
[20XX.01.26]'Tistheseason一年之计在于春................................................................................65
[20XX.01.12]PetsinChina:
Friendorfood?
朋友还是食物?
.......................................................66
[20XX.12.20]Churchesasbusinesses:
Jesus,CEO教会就是生意..............................................68
[20XX.12.20]Thestoryofwheat:
Earsofplenty麦穗满满............................................................76
[20XX.10.27]Whenlightningstrikes...............................................................................................85
[20XX.10.13]LeoSternbach...........................................................................................................87
[20XX.12.16]Go:
Thegametobeatallgames围棋~~游戏之王...................................................90
[20XX.12.16]Abriefhistory末日天启说简史.................................................................................96
[20XX.12.16]TheRomansinChina罗马人在中国......................................................................103
[20XX.11.18]Changingtheguard走马换将.................................................................................109
[20XX.10.21]Girlpower................................................................................................................113
[20XX.08.19]Agreatwallofwaste用垃圾铸造我们新的长城.....................................................116
[20XX.05.06]Thisroundismine这回该我了...............................................................................125
[20XX.01.29]Jammed杯水车薪...................................................................................................127
[20XX.01.15]Agrandbutcostlyvision宏伟但昂贵的规划...........................................................130
[2003.12.18]Thenannystate.......................................................................................................134
[2003.12.11]Theshapeofthingstoe未来的体型.................................................................137
[2003.11.01]Whoselifeisit,anyway?
.........................................................................................140
[2003.10.23]Therighttoknow知情权.........................................................................................145
[2003.09.11]Flagsofconvenience..............................................................................................147
[2003.06.19]Atiger,fallingbehindadragon被蛟龙甩在背后的猛虎.......................................150
[2003.05.03]Hotandcoldrunningmoney....................................................................................154
[2002.12.19]The-bestplace–last最后的最佳场所..................................................................159
[2001.11.18]THEBESTTIME:
PRINCETON,1949最佳时代3................................................168
[1999.12.23]God神.....................................................................................................................169
[1998.09.30]YangShangkun杨尚昆,一位中国的―神仙‖.............................................................174
[20XX.08.06]Thesunalsorises日升如故,阴霾潜伏
Signs
经济of复苏economic的前cheer奏
The
日
Aug
Fromsun升6th如The故20XX,|also阴Economistprint霾WASHINGTON,潜rises伏DCedition
Theeconomymaybepullingoutofrecessionbutunemploymentisstillsurprisinglyhigh.Celebrationsshouldbedelayed虽然经济渐别衰退,但是面对居高不下的失业率,要想庆祝还为时尚早
WHENBarackObamavisitedElkhart,Indiana,inearlyFebruary,afewweeksafterhisinauguration,itwasasombreaffair.Intheprevious12monthsthearea‘sunemploymentratehadmorethantripledto18.3%.Thepresidentpleadedforthepassageofamassivefiscalstimulus,insistingthat―doingnothingisnotanoption.‖BythetimehereturnedtoElkhartonAugust5thhewasquiteabitsunnier.Localfactoriesare―ingbacktolife‖,heproclaimed.Afewdaysearlierhehaddeclaredtheeconomytohavedone―measurablybetter‖thanexpected.今年二月初,就职数周后的奥巴马总统来到印第安纳州小城埃尔克哈特(Elkhart,位于美国印第安纳州北部,埃尔克哈特县县治),对其进行考察。
本次埃县之行,局势并不乐观。
过去一年来,县内失业率翻了三倍多,飙升至18.3%。
针对经济颓势,总统言辞恳切地坚称―对此袖手旁观只会使局面恶化‖,希望能促使国会通过一项大规模的财政刺激政策。
八月五日,奥巴马重返埃县视察。
此时的他颇为神采奕奕;并宣称,当地工厂正―重现生机‖。
此前几日不久,奥巴马就对外宣布,经济形式与预期相比有―适度好转‖。
MrObama‘sgoodspiritsarewellgrounded:
America‘srecessionappearstobeingtoanend.OnJuly31stthegovernmentreportedthatrealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)contractedinthesecondquarter,butatonlya1%annualrate.Muchofthatdeclinereflectedbusiness‘sdeterminationtokeepfactoriesandworkersidleandfillnewordersoutofexistinginventory.Now,stocksaresodepletedthatproductionwillsoonhavetorestart.奥巴马的乐观论调并非空穴来风。
的确,美国经济似乎正在走出萧条阴影。
七月三十一日,政府报告指出,虽然第二季度的实际国民生产总值(GDP)仍有萎缩,但其萎缩速度已减少至年均1%。
此项萎缩多半反映出企业在想方设法地保持厂房闲置,限制工时,并尽量利用现有存货来交付订单。
目前,存货已近清空,生产重启也是指日可待。
TheclutchofdatanowavailableforJulyhasstrengthenedexpectationsthatGDPwillriseinthecurrentquarterbyasmuchas3%.AnindexofmanufacturingactivityrosetoitshighestlevelsincelastAugust,andmanufacturersreportedthatnewordersweregrowingbriskly,thebestinovertwoyears.Carsalesjumped15%toanannualized11.2mandmanufacturersarerampingupproduction.Salesofexistinghouseshaverisen.EvenbatteredElkhartgotsomegoodnews:
onAugust4thDometic,asupplierofrecreational-vehicleparts,saidthatwithsomehelpfromlocal
incentivesitwouldadd240jobstoitsoperationinthetown.七月份已出炉的各项数据均显示出复苏迹象,市场信心也由此增强。
本季度GDP增长预计将达到3%。
其中一项生产活动指数更是创下自去年八月来的最高水平,上升态势强劲。
厂商报告也显示订单增势旺盛,达到两年多来的最佳状态。
汽车销售额跃升15%,达年均1120万辆。
各大汽车制造商都在补充产能。
现房销售也有上涨。
甚至连饱尝萧条之痛的埃尔克哈特也传来振奋人心的消息:
车载娱乐部件提供商多美达(Dometic)于八月四日称,得益于当地政府的经济刺激措施,公司在埃县将新增240个工作岗位。
MrObamaandhisaideshavewastednotimeincreditingthe$787billionfiscalstimulusforspurringthisrecovery.Infactthestimulus‘scontributionsofarhasbeenrelativelymodest.Moreimportantwaslastautumn‘smassiveinjectionofpubliccapital,loansandloanguaranteesintothefinancialsystem,andthisspring‘sbankstresstests.Thesestoppedthespiralofdecliningassetprices,creditwithdrawalsandbankfailuresthathadthreatenedtoturnarecessionintoadepression.
奥巴马总统在其顾问团的协助下,为推动经济复苏不失时机地出台了金额达7870亿美元的财政刺激计划。
目前,该计划的实际收效相对而言并不显著。
去年秋季,政府对金融体系进行了包括公共资本、贷款及贷款担保在内的大规模注资;今年春季又对银行进行了压力测试。
这些举措都比上述财政刺激计划更为有效。
在这些措施的助力下,资产价格下跌的势头得到有效遏止;挤兑风潮和银行倒闭的危机得到解除;同时也缓解了经济进一步恶化的风险。
OneofthemostencouragingbitsofnewsisthattheS&P/Case-Shiller20-cityindexofhousepricesfelljust0.2%betweenAprilandMay,thesmallestfallintwoyears.Stablehousepriceswoulddowondersinreducingloandelinquencies,shoringupthebanks‘balance-sheetsandrestoringtheflowofcredit.最令人鼓舞的消息来自房地产市场。
今年四至五月,―标普/凯斯-希勒20城市房价指数‖仅下跌0.2%,创两年来最小跌幅。
而稳定的房价不仅是减少贷款违约率的灵丹妙药,也将在重振银行资产平衡和恢复信贷流动方面大显身手。
Despitethegoodnews,MrObama‘sapprovalratings,thoughhigh,areslipping.This,inpart,isbecausethesinglemostimportanteconomicbenchmark,employment,remainsgrim,surprisinglyso.Unemploymentusuallyrespondstoeconomicgrowthinarelationshipthatwascapturedbyaneconomist,ArthurOkun,inthe1960s.ButithasrisenmoreduringthisrecessionthanmostformulationsofOkun‘sLawwouldsuggest.与经济好转相反,奥巴马的支持率尽管仍保持在高位,却已开始不断下滑。
其部分原因在于,作为最为重要的经济指标,就业率依然令人讶异地徘徊在较低水平。
失业率与经济增长之间往往存在反向变动关系,这一规律最早于20世纪60年代由经济学家亚瑟?
奥肯(ArthurOkun)发现。
但在本次经济危机中,失业率的攀升却远超出奥肯定律公式所作出的估计。
ThepublicationlastweekofrevisionstoearlierGDPdataexplainssomeofthediscrepancy.TherevisionsshowthatGDPhasdeclinedacumulative3.7%sincetheendof20XX,thustyingwith1957-58asthedeepestrecessionsincetheDepression(beforetheserevisions,thedeclinewasshowntobe2.5%).Evenso,MichaelFeroli,aneconomistatJPMorganChase,saysthatOkun‘sLawwouldhavepredictedanunemploymentrateofjust8.6%duringthesecondquarter,whereasitactuallyaveraged9.3%.
一项对早先GDP数据的修订解释了两者之间的部分差异。
这项上周发布的修订表明,自20XX年