发展中国家的经济增长和经济发展外文翻译.docx

发展中国家的经济增长和经济发展外文翻译.docx

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发展中国家的经济增长和经济发展外文翻译

外文翻译

FinancialDevelopmentandEconomicGrowthinUnderdevelopedCountries

MaterialSource:

googleAuthor:

HughT.Patrick

Anobservedcharacteristicoftheprocessofeconomicdevelopmentovertime,Inamarket-orientedeconomyusingthepricemechanismtoallocateresources.isanincreaseInthenumberandvarietyoffinancialinstitutionsandasubstantialriseintheproportionnotonlyofmoneybutalsoofthetotalofallfinancialassetsrelativetoGNPandtotangiblewealth.However,thecausalnatureofthisrelationshipbetweenfinancialdevelopmentandeconomicgrowthhasnotbeenfullyexploredeithertheoreticallyorempirically.

Typicalstatementsindicatethatthefinancialsystemsomehowaccommodatesor,totheextentthatitmalfunctions,itrestricts-growthofrealpercapitaoutput.Forexample,Itseemstobethecasethatwhereenterpriseleadsfinancefollows.Thesameimpulseswithinaneconomywhichsetenterpriseonfootmakeownersofwealthventuresome,andwhenastrongimpulsetoinvestisfetteredbylackoffinance,devicesareinventedtoreleaseitandhabitsandinstitutionsaredeveloped.

Suchanapproachplacesemphasisonthedemandsideforfinancialservices;astheeconomygrowsitgeneratesadditionalandnewdemandsfortheseservices,whichbringaboutasupplyresponseinthegrowthofthefinancialsystem.Inthisview,thelackoffinancialinstitutionsinunderdevelopedcountriesissimplyanindicationofthelackofdemandfortheirservices.

Wemaytermas“demand-following"thephenomenoninwhichthecreationofmodernfinancialinstitutions,theirfinancialassetsandliabilities,andrelatedfinancialservicesisinresponsetothedemandfortheseservicesbyinvestorsandsaversintherealeconomy.Inthiscase,theevolutionarydevelopmentofthefinancialsystemisacontinuingconsequenceofthepervasive,sweepingprocessofeconomicdevelopment.Theemergingfinancialsystemisshapedbothbychangesinobjectiveopportunities-theeconomicenvironment,theinstitutionalframeworkandbychangesinsubjectiveresponses-individualmotivations,attitudes,tastes,preferences.

Thenatureofthedemandforfinancialservicesdependsuponthegrowthofrealoutputanduponthecommercializationandmonetizationofagricultureandothertraditionalsubsistencesectors.Themorerapidthegrowthrateofrealnationalincome,thegreaterwillbethedemandbyenterprisesforexternalfunds（thesavingofothers）andthereforefinancialintermediation,sinceundermostcircumstancesfirmswillbelessabletofinanceexpansionfrominternallygenerateddepreciationallowancesandretainedprofits.（Theproportionofexternalfundsinthetotalsourceofenterprisefundswillrise）Forthesamereason,withagivenaggregategrowthrate,thegreaterthevarianceInthegrowthratesamongdifferentsectorsorindustries,thegreaterwillbetheneedforfinancialintermediationtotransfersavingtofast-growingindustriesfromslow-growingIndustriesandfromindividuals.ThefinancialsystemcanthussupportandsustaintheleadingsectorsIntheprocessofgrowth.

Thedemand-followingsupplyresponseofthegrowingfinancialsystemispresumedtocomeaboutmoreorlessautomatically.Itisassumedthatthesupplyofentrepreneurshipinthefinancialsectorishighlyelasticrelativetothegrowingopportunitiesforprofitfromprovisionoffinancialservices,sothatthenumberanddiversityoftypesoffinancialinstitutionsexpandssufficiently;andafavorablelegal,institutional,andeconomicenvironmentexists.Thegovernment'sattitudes,economicgoals,andeconomicpolicies,aswellasthesizeandrateofincreaseofthegovernmentdebt,areofcourseimportantinfluencesinanyeconomyonthenatureoftheeconomicenvironment.Asaconsequenceofrealeconomicgrowth,financial

marketsdevelop,widen,andbecomemoreperfect,thusincreasingtheopportunitiesforacquiringliquidityandforreducingrisk,whichinturnfeedsbackasastimulanttorealgrowth.

Thedemand-followingapproachimpliesthatfinanceisessentiallypassiveandpermissiveInthegrowthprocess.LateeighteenthandearlynineteenthcenturyEnglandmaybecitedasahistoricalexample.Infact,theincreasedsupplyoffinancialservicesinresponsetodemandmaynotbeatallautomatic,flexible,orinexpensiveInunderdevelopedcountries.ExamplesincludetherestrictivebankinglegislationinearlynineteenthcenturyFrance,religiousbarriersagainstloansandinterestcharges,andGerschenkron'sanalysisoftheabortiveupswingofItalianindustrialdevelopmentinthe1880's"mainly,itisbelieved,becausethemoderninvestmentbankhadnotyetbeenestablishedInItaly.Inunderdevelopedcountries

today,similarobstacles,togetherwithimperfectionsIntheoperationofthemarketmechanism,maydictateanInadequatedemand-followingresponsebythefinancialsystem.Thelackoffinancialservices,thus,inonewayoranotherrestrictsorinhibitseffectivegrowthpatternsandprocesses.

Lessemphasishasbeengiveninacademicdiscussions（ifnotinpolicyactions）towhatmaybetermedthe"supply-leading”phenomenon:

thecreationoffinancialinstitutionsandthesupplyoftheirfinancialassets,liabilities,andrelatedfinancialservicesinadvanceofdemandforthem,especiallythedemandofentrepreneurs.Inthemodern,growth-inducingsectors."Supply-leading”hastwofunctions:

totransferresourcesfromtraditional（non-growth）sectorstomodernsectors,andtopromoteandstimulateanentrepreneurialresponseinthesemodernsectors.Financialintermediationwhichtransfersresourcesfromtraditionalsectors,whetherbycollectingwealthandsavingfromthosesectorsInexchangeforitsdepositsandotherfinancialliabilities,orbycreditcreationandforcedsaving,isakintotheSchumpeterianconceptofinnovationfinancing.

Newaccesstosuchsupply-leadingfundsmayinItselfhavesubstantial,favorableexpectationalandpsychologicaleffectsonentrepreneurs.Itopensnewhorizonsastopossiblealternatives,enablingtheentrepreneurto"thinkbig.'Thismaybethemostsignificanteffectofall,particularlyincountrieswhereentrepreneurshipisamajorconstraintondevelopment.Moreover,ashasbeenemphasizedbyRondoCameron,thetopmanagementoffinancialinstitutionsmay

alsoserveasentrepreneursinindustrialenterprises.TheyassistintheestablishmentoffirmsInnewindustriesorinthemergeroffirms（theadvantagesofeconomiesofscalemaybemorethanoffsetbytheestablishmentofrestrictivecartelsormonopolies,however）,notonlybyunderwritingasubstantialportionofthecapital,butmoreimportantlybyassumingtheentrepreneurialinitiative.

Byitsverynature,asupply-leadingfinancialsysteminitiallymaynotbeabletooperateprofitablybylendingtothenascentmodernsectors.Thereare,however,severalwaysinwhichnewfinancialinstitutionscanbemadeviable.First,theymaybegovernmentinstitutions,usinggovernmentcapitalandperhapsreceivingdirectgovernmentsubsidies.ThisisexemplifiednotonlybyRussianexperienceinthelatterhalfofthenineteenthcentury,butbymanyunderdevelopedcountriestoday.Second,privatefinancialinstitutionsmayreceivedirectorindirectgovernmentsubsidies,usuallythelatter.Indirectsubsidiescanbeprovidedinnumerousways.Commercialbanksmayhavetherighttoissuebanknotesunderfavorablecollateralconditions;thistechniquewasmoreimportantintheeighteenthandnineteenthcenturies（nationalbankinginJapaninthe1870's;wildcatbankingintheUnitedStates）thanitislikelytobeinpresentunderdevelopedcountries,wherethisrightisreservedforthecentralbankortreasury.Nonetheless,modernequivalentsexist.Theyincludeallowingprivatefinancialinstitutiontocreatedepositmoneywithlow（theoretically,evennegative）reserverequirementsandcentralbankrediscountofcommercialbankloansatinterestrateseffectivelybelowthoseontheloans.Third,new,modernfinancialinstitutionsmayinitiallylendalargeproportionoftheirfundstotraditional（agriculturalandcommercial）sectorsprofitably,graduallyshiftingtheirloanportfoliotomodernindustriesasthesebegintoemerge.Thismorecloselyresemblesthedemand-followingphenomen;whethersuchafinancialinstitutionissupply-leadingdependsmainlyonitsattitudeinsearchingoutandencouragingnewventuresofamodernnature.

Itcannotbesaidthatsupply-leadingfinanceisanecessaryconditionorpreconditionforinauguratingself-sustainedeconomicdevelopment.Rather,itpresentsanopportunitytoinducerealgrowthbyfinancialmeans.Itthusislikelytoplayamoresignificantroleatthebeginningofthegrowthprocessthanlater.Gerschenkronimpliesthatthemorebackwardtheeconomyrelativetoothersinthesametimeperiod（andthegreatertheforced-draftnatureoftheeconomicdevelopmenteffort）,thegreatertheemphasiswhichisplacedonwhatIheretermsupply-leadingfinance.'Atthesametime,itshouldberecognizedthatthesupply-leadingapproachtodevelopmentofacountry'sfinancialsystemalsohasitsdangers,andtheyshouldnotbeunderestimated.Theuseofresources,especiallyenterpreneurialtalentsandmanagerialskills,andthecostsofexplicitorimplicitsubsidiesinsupply-leadingdevelopmentmustproducesufficientbenefitsintheformofstimulatingrealeconomicdevelopmentforthisapproachtobejustified.

Inactualpractice,thereislikelytobeaninteractionofsupply-leadinganddemandfollowingphenomena.Nevertheless,thefollowingsequencemaybepostulated.Beforesustainedmodernindustrialgrowthgetsunderway,supply-leadingmaybeabletoinducerealinnovation-