价格形态百科旗形2.docx

价格形态百科旗形2.docx

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价格形态百科旗形2

14、FlagsandPennants

RESULTSSNAPSHOT

Flags

Appearance

Ashortslopingrectangleboundedbytwoparalleltrendlines

ReversalOrConsolidation

Short-term（upto3months）consolidation

FailureRateinUptrend

13%

FailureRateinDonwtrend

12%

AverageRiseinUptrend

19%,withmostlikelyrisebeing20%

AverageDeclineinDowntrend

17%,withmostlikelydeclinebeing15%

VolumeTrend

downward

Pullbacks

20%

Throwbacks

10%

Percentagemeetingpredictedpricetargetinuptrend

63%

Percentagemeetingpredictedpricetargetindowntrend

61%

Seealso

RectangleBottoms;RectangleTops

Pennants

Appearance

Ashortslopingtriangleboundedbytwoconvergingtrendlines

ReversalOrConsolidation

Short-term（upto3months）consolidation

FailureRateinUptrend

19%

FailureRateinDonwtrend

34%

AverageRiseinUptrend

21%,withmostlikelyrisebetween15%and20%

AverageDeclineinDowntrend

17%,withmostlikelydeclinebeing25%

VolumeTrend

downward

Pullbacks

17%

Throwbacks

16%

Percentagemeetingpredictedpricetargetinuptrend

58%

Percentagemeetingpredictedpricetargetindowntrend

52%

Seealso

Triangles,SymmetricalBottoms;Triangles,SymmetricalTops;Wedges,Falling;Wedges,Rising

Flagsandpennantslookalikeandinmanywaystheirperformanceissimilar,too.Theformationsareusuallyveryshortinduration,fromafewdaysto3weeks,andmarkthehalfwaypointinaquickpricemove.Theseformationscanbeprofitableshort-terminvestments,butyoumustbenimbleandattentivetotakefulladvantageofthem.Pennants,withafailurerateof34%indowntrends,areabovethe20%rateIconsideracceptable.Flagsat12%to13%andpennantsinauptrend（19%）performbetter.

旗形和三角旗形外观类似，性能也类似。

它们周期相当短，1天到三周，是快速价格运动的中继。

短期操作可以获利，但是三角旗形在下跌趋势中失败率相当高，34%。

Thepercentageofformationsthatmeetorexceedtheirpredictedpricetargetsisdisappointingforbothflagsandpennants.Iviewvaluesabove80%tobereliable,buttheresultsshowvaluesthatrangefrom52%to63%,suggestingthatyoushouldtradetheseformationswithcautionasyourprofitsmaynotbeaslargeasyouexpect.

目标价格达成率非常让人失望，所以不可奢望太高收益。

Themostlikelyriseordeclineisdeceptivefortheseformations.Whenthelikelyriseordeclinevalueisabovetheaverage,itsimplymeansthatafrequencydistributionshowsmorehitsataparticularvalue,butthebintotalsofthepriorcolumnsarehigh,pullingtheaveragedownward.

Tour

Figure14.1showsagoodexampleofaflag.Itisboundedbytwoparalleltrendlinesandusuallyislessthan3weekslong（sometimesasshortasafewdays）.Youseetheseformationsappearinginstronguptrendsordowntrends（suchasthatshowninFigure14.1）,usuallynearthehalfwaypointinthemove.Thisparticularflaggoesagainstthegraininthesensethatpricesriseinadowntrend.Thisisthemostcommonbehavior—aretraceinadowntrend—butitisnotunusualforflagstoappearhorizontal（asshortrectangles）orslopedownward（followingthetrend）.Sinceflagscanalsoappearinanuptrend,theyusuallyslopedownward,butcanbehorizontalorslopeupwardtoo.

旗形是两条平行的趋势线，它们可能倾斜向任何方向，也可能水平。

Thevolumetrendisdownward.AsweseeintheStatisticssectionofthischapter,arecedingvolumetrendusuallyaccompaniesflagformations.Figure14.2showswhatapennantlookslike.Theonlyvisualdifferencebetweenaflagandapennantistheshapeoftheformation.Twoslopingtrendlinesthateventuallymeetoutlineapennantformation,resemblingasmallwedge.Sometimesthetrendlinesslopeupward,asinFigure14.2,andsometimestheydonot.Usually,theyslopeupwardinadowntrendanddownwardinanuptrend.Liketheflagformation,thevolumepatternrecedes.Forpennants,therecedingvolumetrendismoreprevalent,occurringinnearlyalltheformationsinthisstudy.

成交量是下降趋势的。

IdentificationGuidelines

Table14.1outlinestheidentificationcharacteristicsforflagsandpennants.TwoparalleltrendlinesbounddiepriceactionforflagsasshowninFigure14.3.TwoconvergingtrendlinesoutlinetheboundariesforpennantsasshowninFigure14.4.Inbothfiguresdieformationsareshortcomparedwithmanyotherchartpatternsinthisbook.IndiecaseofFigure14.3,theformationis12tradingdayslong,whereasthepennantinFigure14.4isjust8tradingdayslong.Manytimeswhenaformationisveryshort,suchas3or4days,itappearsasahorizontalrectangle—adarkblobindiemiddleofafastpricetrend.Theformationsusuallyareshorterthan3weeksbutthisisanarbitrarylimit.Sixteenformationsinthisstudy（6%）havedurationsgreaterthan3weeks（thelongestflagis32daysandthelongestpennantis28days）.

旗形持续时间短！

Reliableflagsandpennantsappearduringsteep,quickpricetrends.Thetrendsmightbeupordown,butpricesriseorfallquickly,movingseveralpointsinjustafewdaystoafewweeks.InFigure14.3,forexample,thedowntrendbeginsonJanuary18andtheflagbeginsonFebruary1.Inthatshorttime,pricestumblefromahighof403/4toalowof301/8.AlthoughonemightarguetheuptrendinFigure14.4beginsinearlyApril,Isuggesttheriseleadingtothepennantbeginslater,onApril26,fromalowpriceof223/8.Sixtradingdayslater,thepriceclimbstothetopofthepennantat313/4.Thelaterstartingpointisafterthetwominorhighsanditservesasareferencepointforthemeasurerule.

旗形出现在快速的价格移动中比较可靠！

Figure14.3,thepricetrendindieflagslopesupward,whereasinFigure14.4thepennantslopesdownward.Thisbehavioristypicalfortheprevailingpricetrend（thatis,flagsorpennantstypicallymoveagainstthetrend）.Thechartpatternsusuallyappearnearthemidpointofthemove.Assuch,theyareoftentermedhalf-mastformations.

Thevolumetrendnearlyalwaysrecedesoverthecourseoftheformation.However,thisisnotaninviolaterulebutusuallyisthecase.Ishouldpointoutthatrisingvolumeisnocauseforalarm.Ofthe45formationfailures,only4haverisingvolumetrends.

Whenselectingaflagorpennanttotrade,themostimportantguidelineistherapid,steeppricetrend.Ifpricesaremeanderingupordownandformaflagorpennant,thenlookelsewhere.Theflagorpennantmustbeaplacewherethestockcantakeabreatherfromitsrapidpace.Pricesmoveagainsttheshort-termtrendforseveraldaysbeforecontinuingon.

FocusonFailures

Likeallformations,flagsandpennantsarenotimmunetofailure.Figure14.5showsaflagfailure.Theflag,whileobeyingtheconfinesofthetwodownslopingtrendlines,hasagoodvolumetrend.Pricesshouldcontinuehigheraftertheflagcompletesbutdonot.Why?

Oneexplanationisthattheformationisjusttoolongat26days.Sometimesanexcessivelylongformationsuggestsanimpendingfailureoraweakpricemove（afterthebreakout）.Tradeflagsorpennantsmorethan3weekslongcarefullyorpassthemupentirely.

图14.5中旗形，拥有两条下降的平行趋势线，有很好的成交量走势，为什么价格没能继续上涨？

一种解释是形态持续时间太长。

Figure14.6,anotherflagformation,isalsoafailure.Pricesshouldcontinuerisingaftertheflagcompletes.Thedurationisgood,at10days（aboutaverageforflags）,andthevolumetrendisdownward.However,theformationhasaninadequatepriceriseleadingtoit.Thedifferencebetweenthetake-offpointandtheformationhighisjustoveradollar,wellshortofthe19%averagerise.Thereisprobablylittledangerthatyouwouldselectthisformationtotrade.Sinceflagsandpennantssignalthehalfwaypoint,thepredictedriseinthisexampleisjusttoosmalltotakeadvantageof.Aninvestorviewingthisformationfortradingwouldlikelypassitby.

图14.6是另一种失败的例子，它的问题在于前期的价格走势太弱。

出现在强势的价格走势中的旗形才比较可靠。

Figure14.7showsafailureofapennantinadowntrend.Theformationprobablyremindsyouofashortsymmetricaltriangle—onethatactsasareversal（whichisunusualforasymmetricaltriangle）.Thevolumetrendisreceding,asyouwouldexpect.Theformationpricetrend,boundedbythetwoslopingtrendlines,looksgoodtoo.Thepricetrendleadingdowntotheformationrepresentsan18%decline,exactlytheaverageforapennantinadowntrend.Pricesshouldcontinuemovinglowerafterthisformationcompletesbuttheydonot.Why?

YoucanseeinFigure14.7thatpriceslooparoundtheformationendthenheadlower（athrowback）.Ifyouheldontoyourshortposition,youwouldeventuallymakemoney.However,Istillclassifythisformationasafailure.Pricesshouldcontinuedownimmediatelyafterpiercingthetrendlineboundary.Thereasonpricesascendimmediatelyisnotclear.Ascanofthedatabasereveals66%oftheformationfailures（30outof45）failinthismanner.Thatistosay,theymovebrieflyinthewrongdirection（abreakoutfailure）butsoonturnaround（bythrowbackorpullback）andcompleteproperly.

旗形的失败案例66%是图14.7的情况，价格向上突破，然后掉头下跌。

虽然最终还是下跌了，但是突破方向反了。

TradingTactics

Table14.5showstradingtacticsforflagsandpennants.ConsultFigure14.8asIreviewthetacticslistedinTable14.5.Themeasurerulegaugestheminimumpricemove.Itisthesameforbothflagsandpennants.First,determinewherethetrendbegins,whichisusuallytheminorhigh（fordowntrends）orlow（foruptrends）precedingtheformation.Figure14.8showsthetrendbeginningatpointA.Subtractthelowattheformationstart（pointBat423/4）frompointA（47'/z）,givingadifferenceof43/4.Subtractthedifferencefromthehighattheformationend（pointCat43）togivethetargetpriceof381/4.Pricesreachthetarget13tradingdaysaftertheymovebelowtheformationtrendline.Whentradingflagsandpennants,youmustfirstbesureyouhaveavalidformation.UsetheidentificationguidelinesoutlinedinTable14.1toensurethatyouhave