The End of the University as We Know ItNATHAN HARDEN.docx
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TheEndoftheUniversityasWeKnowItNATHANHARDEN
TheEndoftheUniversityasWeKnowItNATHANHARDEN
Thehigheredrevolutioniscoming.Justafewdecadeshence,halfthecollegesanduniversitiesintheUnitedStateswillhavedisappeared,butschoolslikeHarvardwillhavemillionsofstudents.
Infiftyyears,ifnotmuchsooner,halfoftheroughly4,500collegesanduniversitiesnowoperatingintheUnitedStateswillhaveceasedtoexist.Thetechnologydrivingthischangeisalreadyatwork,andnothingcanstopit.Thefuturelookslikethis:
Accesstocollege-leveleducationwillbefreeforeveryone;theresidentialcollegecampuswillbecomelargelyobsolete;tensofthousandsofprofessorswilllosetheirjobs;thebachelor’sdegreewillbecomeincreasinglyirrelevant;andtenyearsfromnowHarvardwillenrolltenmillionstudents.
We’veallheardplentyaboutthe“collegebubble”inrecentyears.Studentloandebtisatanall-timehigh—anaverageofmorethan$23,000pergraduatebysomecounts—andtuitioncostscontinuetoriseataratefaroutpacinginflation,astheyhavefordecades.Credentialinflationisdevaluingthecollegedegree,makinggraduatedegrees,andthegreaterdebtrequiredtopayforthem,increasinglynecessaryformanypeopletomaintainthestandardoflivingtheyexperiencedgrowingupintheirparents’homes.Studentsaredefaultingontheirloansatanunprecedentedrate,too,partlyafunctionofaneconomyshortonentry-levelprofessionalpositions.Yet,aswithallbubbles,there’sapersistentpublicbeliefinthevalueofsomething,andthatfaithinthecollegedegreehaskeptdemandhigh.
Thefiguresarealarming,theanecdotesdownrightdepressing.ButtherealstoryoftheAmericanhigher-educationbubblehaslittletodowithindividualstudentsandtheirdebtsoremploymentproblems.Themostimportantpartofthecollegebubblestory—theonewewillsoonbehearingmuchmoreabout—concernstheimpendingfinancialcollapseofnumerousprivatecollegesanduniversitiesandthelikelyshrinkageofmanypublicones.Andwhenthatbubblebursts,itwillendasystemofhighereducationthat,forallofitshistory,hasbeensteepedinacultureofexclusivity.Thenwe’llseethebirthofsomethingentirelynewasweacceptonecentralandunavoidablefact:
Thecollegeclassroomisabouttogovirtual.
W
eareallawarethattheITrevolutionishavinganimpactoneducation,butwetendtoappreciatethechangesinisolation,andatthemargins.Veryfewhavebeenabletoexercisetheirimaginationstothepointthattheycanperceivethesystemicandstructuralchangesahead,andwhattheyportendforthebusinessmodelsandsocialscriptsthatsustainthestatusquo.Thatispartlybecausethechangesarethreateningtomanyvestedinterests,butalsopartlybecausethehumanmindresistssurrendertoupheavalandtheanxietythattendstogowithit.Butresistornot,majorchangeiscoming.Thelivelecturewillbereplacedbystreamingvideo.Theadministrationofexamsandexchangeofcourseworkovertheinternetwillbecomethenorm.Thepushandpullofacademicexchangewilltakeplacemainlyininteractiveonlinespaces,occupiedbyanewgenerationoftablet-toting,hyper-connectedyouthwhoalreadyspendmuchoftheirlivesonline.Universitieswillextendtheirreachtostudentsaroundtheworld,unboundedbygeographyorevenbytimezones.Allofthiswillbeonoffer,too,atafractionofthecostofatraditionalcollegeeducation.
HowdoIknowthiswillhappen?
Becauserecenthistoryshowsusthattheinternetisagreatdestroyerofanytraditionalbusinessthatreliesonthesaleofinformation.Theinternetdestroyedthelivelihoodsoftraditionalstockbrokersandbondssalesmenbythrowingopentoeveryoneaccesstotheproprietaryinformationtheyusedtosell.Thesametechnologyenabledbankersandfinancierstodevelopnewproductsandmethods,but,asitturnedout,theexperiencenecessarytomanageitalldidnotkeepup.PriortotheWallStreetmeltdown,itseemedabsurdtothinkthatstoriedfinancialinstitutionslikeBearStearnsandLehmanBrotherscoulddisappearseeminglyovernight.Untilithappened,almostnoonebelievedsuchathingwaspossible.Well,getreadytoseethesamethinghappentoauniversitynearyou,andnotforentirelydissimilarreasons.
Thehigher-edbusinessisinforalotofpainasaneweraofcreativedestructionproducesamercilessshakeoutofthoseinstitutionsthatadaptandprosperfromthosethatstallanddie.Meanwhile,studentsthemselvesareinforagoldenage,characterizedbynear-universalaccesstothehighestqualityteachingandscholarshipataminimalcost.Thechangesaheadwillultimatelybringaboutthemostbeneficial,mostefficientandmostequitableaccesstoeducationthattheworldhaseverseen.Thereismuchtobegained.Wemaylosethegothicarches,thebespectacledlecturers,dustybooksliningthewallsoflabyrinthinelibraries—wonderfulimagesfromhighereducation’spast.Butnostalgiawon’tstoptheunsentimentalbeastofprogressfromwreakinghavoconoldwaysofdoingthings.Ifafaster,cheaperwayofsharinginformationemerges,historyshowsusthatitwillquicklysupplantwhatcamebefore.Peoplewillnotcontinuetopaytensofthousandsofdollarsforwhattechnologyallowsthemtogetforfree.
Technologywillalsobringfuturestudentsanarrayofnewchoicesabouthowtobuildandcustomizetheireducations.Powerisshiftingawayfromselectiveuniversityadmissionsofficersintothehandsofeducationalconsumers,whowillsoonhavetheirchoiceofattendingvirtuallyanyuniversityintheworldonline.Thiswilldramaticallyincreasecompetitionamonguniversities.Prestigiousinstitutions,especiallythosefewextremelywell-endowedoneswithmoneytobufferandfinancechange,willbeinapositiontodominatethisvirtual,globaleducationalmarketplace.Thebottomfeeders—thefor-profitcollegesandlow-levelpublicandnon-profitcolleges—willdisappearorturnintotheequivalentofvocationaltraininginstitutes.Universitiesofallranksbelowtheverytopwillengageeachotherinanall-outwarofsurvival.Inthiswar,big-budgetuniversitiescarryinglargetransactionalcostsstandtolosethemost.Smaller,morenimbleinstitutionswithsoundleadershipwilldobest.
T
hispastspring,HarvardandMITgottheattentionofeveryoneinthehigheredbusinesswhentheyannouncedanewonlineeducationventurecallededX.Thenewventurewillmakeonlineversionsoftheuniversities’coursesavailabletoavirtuallyunlimitednumberofenrolleesaroundtheworld.Thinkoftheramifications:
Nowanyoneintheworldwithaninternetconnectioncanaccessthekindofhigh-levelteachingandscholarshippreviouslyavailableonlytoaselectgroupofthebestandmostprivilegedstudents.It’sallpartofanewbreedofonlinecoursesknownas“massiveopenonlinecourses”(MOOCs),whicharepoisedtoforeverchangethewaystudentslearnanduniversitiesteach.
Oneofthebiggestbarrierstothemainstreamingofonlineeducationisthecommonassumptionthatstudentsdon’tlearnaswellwithcomputer-basedinstructionastheydowithin-personinstruction.There’snothinglikethepersonaltouchofbeinginaclassroomwithanactualprofessor,saystheconventionalwisdom,andthat’struetosomeextent.Clearly,onlineeducationcan’tbesuperiorinallrespectstothein-personexperience.Noristhereanypointpretendingthatinformationisthesameasknowledge,andthataccesstoinformationisthesameastheteachingfunctioninstrumentaltoturningtheformerintothelatter.ButresearchersatCarnegieMellon’sOpenLearningInitiative,who’vebeenexperimentingwithcomputer-basedlearningforyears,havefoundthatwhenmachine-guidedlearningiscombinedwithtraditionalclassroominstruction,studentscanlearnmaterialinhalfthetime.ResearchersatIthakaS+Rstudiedtwogroupsofstudents—onegroupthatreceivedallinstructioninperson,andanothergroupthatreceivedamixtureoftraditionalandcomputer-basedinstruction.Thetwogroupsdidequallywellontests,butthosewhoreceivedthecomputerinstructionwereabletolearnthesameamountofmaterialin25percentlesstime.
TherealvalueofMOOCsistheirscalability.AndrewNg,aStanfordcomputerscienceprofessorandco-founderofanopen-sourcewebplatformcalledCoursera(afor-profitversionofedX),gotintotheMOOCbusinessafterhediscoveredthatthousandsofpeoplewerefollowinghisfreeStanfordcoursesonline.Hewantedtocapitalizeontheintensedemandforhigh-quality,open-sourceonlinecourses.AnormalclassNgteachesatStanfordmightenroll,atmost,severalhundredstudents.Butinthefallof2011hisonlinecourseinmachinelearningenrolled100,000.“Toreachthatmanystudentsbefore”,NgexplainedtoThomasFriedmanofthe NewYorkTimes,“IwouldhavehadtoteachmynormalStanfordclassfor250years.”
BasedonthepopularityoftheMOOCofferingsonlinesofar,weknowthatopen-sourcecoursesateliteuniversitieshavethepotentialtoserveenormous“classes.”AnearlyMITonlinecoursecalled“CircuitsandElectronics”hasattracted120,000registrants.TopschoolslikeYale,MITandStanfordhavebeenmakingstreamingvideosandpodcastsoftheircoursesavailableonlineforyears,butMOOCsgobeyondthistoofferafull-blowninteractiveexperience.Studentscaninterminglewithfacultyandwitheachotheroverakindofhigher-edsocialnetwork.Streaminglecturesmaybeaccompaniedbyshortauto-gradedquizzes.Studentscanpostquestionsaboutcoursematerialtodiscusswithotherstudents.Thesediscussionsunfoldacrosstimezones,24hoursaday.Inextremelylargecourses,s