土耳其房地产市场的利弊分析毕业设计外文资料翻译.docx

土耳其房地产市场的利弊分析毕业设计外文资料翻译.docx

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土耳其房地产市场的利弊分析毕业设计外文资料翻译

哈尔滨商业大学本科毕业设计

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2017年04月07日

AnAnalysisoftheStrengthsandWeaknessesoftheTurkishRealEstateMarket

1.Introduction

RealestateisoneoftheforemostandtraditionalinvestmentsforTurkishhouseholdduetoseveralreasons.Demographics,immigrationtourbanareas,urbanization,industrializationandrenewalarethemaincomponentsofthestrongdomesticdemandforrealestate.After2000-2001bankingcrisis,ithasbeenalsoobservedthatforeigndirectinvestments（FDI）torealestatemarketswerealsoaugmenting.

Afterthecrisis,Turkisheconomyhasshowedextraordinaryeconomicgrowthuntilnegativeimpactsofglobalfinancialcrisisinthe2008.EUfullmembershipcandidacy,politicalandeconomicstabilityandincreasingliquidity（duetotheriseindirectandportfolioinvestments）arethemaincomponentsofthegrowthperiod.

Risingresidentialprices,increasingthesupplyofresidentialunitandshoppingcenter,growingFDItodomesticrealestatemarket（particularlyforcommercialrealestateinvestments）andproductiongrowthinsocialrealestatemarket（byHDA/HousingDevelopmentAdministrationofTurkey）arethepositiveindicatorsofadynamicrealestatemarketsinthisperiod.Inadditiontothisremarkableperiodicmarketmovement,therearemanyreasonsforastronghousingdemandinTurkey（i.e.youngpopulationandinwardmigration,renewals,growingdemandforaffordablehousingandnicheresidentialdemandetc.）whicharesignificantforalong-termmarketdevelopment.Ontheotherhand,thedemandforindustrialandcommercialrealestatealsoseemsstronginTurkeythankstodynamicsocio-economicstructure.

Ourstudyismotivatedbytwofactors.First,althoughtheeconomicgrowthisrelativelyhigherandstrongdomesticandinternationalresidential/commercialrealestatedemandarethepositiveaspects,Turkishrealestatemarketexperiencesimportantdeficiencies.Inthispaper,weareattemptingtoreachanobjectiveapproachpresentingbothstrongandalsoweaksidesofthemarket.Second,theauthorisquestioningwhetherdeficienciesmaydecreasethepotentialvalueoftheopportunitiesinTurkishrealestatemarketandwhatkindofmeasureswouldbetakenforbettermarketplace.Toanalyzetheseissues,thepaperaimstodevelopasolutionframeworkforTurkishrealestatemarkets.

Thepaperwouldbefindchallenging.Because,toourknowledge,thisisthefirstattempttoevaluateoverallTurkishrealestatemarketstakingbothpositiveandnegativesidesintoaccount.Howeveritsuffersfromdataavailabilityandstatisticalmodeling,webelievethatthestudyhasaconsiderableoutcome.

Tobetterpublicandnon-publicpurposesrealestatemanagement,wethinkthatRealEstateRegulationandSupervisionAgencyshouldbeestablishedasanewgovernmentagency.Toourview,primaryexpectationofthisagencyistoenhancepublicinterest,customerprotectionandmarketefficiencyinrealestatemarkets.

Thepaperisorganizedinfourfurthersections.Insection2,weanalyzeTurkisheconomyandrealestatemarketingeneral.AdvantagesanddisadvantagesoftheTurkishrealestatemarketsarediscussedinsection3.Insection4,wearearguingwithsomereservationsthatanewgovernmentagencyshouldbeestablishedtosolvecurrentinefficienciesofTurkishrealestatemarkets.Andlastsectionisreservedfortheconclusionremarks.

2.OverviewtoTurkisheconomyandrealestatesector

Turkeyisthe17thlargesteconomyintheworld.HerGDPattheendof2008reached7418billionUSD.VariousinternationalresearchreportsarguethatTurkeywillbeamongthetenlargesteconomiesintheworldinthe40yearstocome.

Accordingtostatistics,TurkeyisconsideredtobeapromisingcountryinthegreaterEuropeanregion.Ifitismanagedeffectively,thecountryoffersseveraleconomicbenefitstoitstradepartnersandinvestors.Likeotherimmaturesectors,realestatemarketsshallalsoofferopportunities.Inthissection,weaimtooverviewthefactsandtrendsofTurkisheconomyandrealestatesector.

2.1.TurkishFinancialCrisis

Byvirtueoftherapidanduncontrolledfinancialliberalizationapproachlived1980s,Turkeyhasfacedseveralfinancialcrisisarisenfromthebankingsector.1982-1985,1994-1995and2000-2002werethecrisisperiodsforTurkisheconomy.Followedbyyear1980,severalfinancialrestraintswerealsoexperienced.Thelastcrisis,namely2000-2001bankingcrisis,wasthemostdestructiveonewhichhasradicallychangedbotheconomicandpoliticalpicturesofthecountry.

2.2.RealEstateandtheTurkishEconomy

TheareaofTurkeyis778.000.000km².26%ofthisareaisforestand12.3%ispasturearea.Therestisthecadastralareawhichcontains480.000km²,intotal.Residentialareaisabout5%（40.000km²）andruralareaisabout56%（440.000km²）.

Bothconstructionandrealestatesectorshavecriticalfunctionsonthegrowth/developmentprocessoftheTurkisheconomy.Intermsofhousingfinance/constructionactivities,therealestateeconomyaffectsthelevelofeconomicactivity,employmentrateetc.Inthiscontext,theeconomyrequiresconstantrealestateinvestmentduetoincreasingeconomicgrowth，immigrationtourbanareas,renewalsetc.

Populationgrowthandinter-regionalmigrationhavebeenandwillbesignificantdriversfortheTurkishrealestatemarkets.In2007thefertilityratewasat2.2（childrenperwoman）comparedtoanaveragefertilityrateof1.5fortheEU-25countries.Withcurrentlymorethan53%ofinhabitantsyoungerthan30years,thisensuresasteadyexpansioninthenumberofpeopleofworkingage.Thesedemographictrendswillhaveastrongimpactonhousingdemandaswellasoncommercialrealestate（DeutscheBankResearch,2008:

7）.Deloitte（2009:

77）estimatesthattherapidpopulationincreaseandtheneedforearthquake-resistanthousingprojectsensuredoverallgrowthandconstructionvolumereached€24bnin2007.JonesLangLasalle（2008:

5）underlinesthatoverthelastdecadeTurkey’surbanpopulationhasincreasedbysome10milliondwellers,whileIstanbulalonehasgrownbynearly2millionnewinhabitants.

Thefallofinflationandinterestratesafter2001,andincreasingliquidityledtotheriseofinvestmentsinrealestateandconstructionactivities.AccordingtoTurkStat（TurkishStatisticalInstitute）,theconstructionsub-sectorhasmadecontributiontothegrossnationalproductsatarate3.5%-5.3%byproductionapproachbetweenyears2004-2006.AccordingtoStatePlanningOrganization（2006：

45）theshareoftheconstructionsector,whereanaverageof1,1millionpersonsareemployed,intotalemploymentwasrealizedas5,3percentasoftheendof2005.

3.ADVANTAGESANDDISADVANTAGESofREALESTATESECTOR

AlthoughonesideofthemedalseemsbrightforTurkeyasindicatedintheprevioussection,theobjectiveassessmentforthemarketrequiresacost-benefitanalysis.Inthissection,weareattemptingtoclassifybothadvantagesanddisadvantagesoftheTurkishrealestatesector.Aspartofthisanalysis,wealsopresentsuggestionstodevelopeffectivenessofthemarket.

3.1.OpportunitiesinTurkishRealEstateMarkets

TheeconomyandrealestatebusinessinTurkeyofferseveraladvantagestoinvestors.

Inthiscontext,fundamentals（geopoliticalposition;EUpositivecandidacyindustrialization;growing/stableeconomyetc.）,positivesidesofdemographicsandurbanization,İstanbulasemergingmetropolis,somepublicpoliciesonrealestatesupply,dynamicandcreativeentrepreneurship,motivesindomesticdemandandotherfactorsforstrongdemand,advantagesofREITs（orİstanbulStockExchange’spositiveimpactstorealestatebusiness）,advantagesofbeingalatecomer,developmentsinregulatoryframeworkanddevelopingacademicknowledgewouldbeclassifiedasopportunities（orpositivefactors）supportingthepotentialvaluesofTurkisheconomyandrealestatebusiness.SuchfactorsmakepositivecontributionstotheexpectedrateofreturnoftherealestateinvestmentinTurkey.

3.1.1.MotivesinDomesticDemand

Ahighinflationaryenvironmentandnegativerealinterestrates,whichformanydecadeswereamainstayofTurkisheconomy,resultedinunusualinvestmentpatternsforboththeTurkishhouseholdandcorporatesectors.Duringthisperiod,theemphasiswasmostlyoninvestmentinpreciousmetals（specificallythegoldmarket）andrealestate（Coşkun,2010a:

30）.

SpendingonhousingfinanceandrentconsistofconsiderablepartofconsumerpaymentsinTurkey.Inthiscontext,HousingDepartmentofTurkey（2003:

5-16）indicatesthatintheyear1965theresidentialleaseholdersconsistsof38,66%oftheallhousehold.Thisratiodeclined31,6%intheyear2000.Inotherwords,3,5millionpeoplehavemonthlyrentpaymentsinTurkey.Therefore,theresidentialleaseholderscouldbeseenpotentialmortgagebuyersifaffordableloanswouldbeavailable.

EuropeanMortgageFederation（2007:

124）underlinesthataveragehousingratiois67%inEU27countries.Thisratiois68%inBelgium（in2001）,80%inItaly（in2002）and75%inPoland（in2004）.AccordingtoTurkStatandHousingDepartment（2003:

4）owneroccupationrateis68,2%inTurkey.AlthoughownershipratioseemshighinTurkey,demographics,ruralimmigration,urbanization,industrializationandrenewalarethemaincomponentsofthestrongdomesticdemandforresidential.

3.1.2.OpportunitiesinİstanbulRealEstateMarkets

İstanbulistheessentialdriveroftherealestateinvestmentsinthecountryandstillneedsmoreofficespace,upper/middleclassresidential,logisticsandhotelinvestments.Althoughtheestimatednumberswould