土耳其房地产市场的利弊分析毕业设计外文资料翻译.docx

1、土耳其房地产市场的利弊分析毕业设计外文资料翻译 哈尔滨商业大学本科毕业设计外 文 翻 译 学 生 姓 名： 指 导 教 师： 专 业 班 级： 学 号： 学 院： 2017年04月07日An Analysis of the Strengths and Weaknesses of the Turkish Real Estate Market1. IntroductionReal estate is one of the foremost and traditional investments for Turkish household due to several reasons. Demogr

2、aphics, immigration to urban areas, urbanization, industrialization and renewal are the main components of the strong domestic demand for real estate. After 2000-2001 banking crisis, it has been also observed that foreign direct investments (FDI) to real estate markets were also augmenting. After th

3、e crisis, Turkish economy has showed extraordinary economic growth until negative impacts of global financial crisis in the 2008. EU full membership candidacy, political and economic stability and increasing liquidity (due to the rise in direct and portfolio investments) are the main components of t

4、he growth period.Rising residential prices, increasing the supply of residential unit and shopping center, growing FDI to domestic real estate market (particularly for commercial real estate investments) and production growth in social real estate market (by HDA/Housing Development Administration of

5、 Turkey) are the positive indicators of a dynamic real estate markets in this period. In addition to this remarkable periodic market movement, there are many reasons for a strong housing demand in Turkey (i.e. young population and inward migration, renewals, growing demand for afford able housing an

6、d niche residential demand etc.) which are significant for a long-term market development. On the other hand, the demand for industrial and commercial real estate also seems strong in Turkey thanks to dynamic socio-economic structure.Our study is motivated by two factors. First, although the economi

7、c growth is relatively higher and strong domestic and international residential/commercial real estate demand are the positive aspects, Turkish real estate market experiences important deficiencies. In this paper, we are attempting to reach an objective approach presenting both strong and also weak

8、sides of the market. Second, the author is questioning whether deficiencies may decrease the potential value of the opportunities in Turkish real estate market and what kind of measures would be taken for better marketplace. To analyze these issues, the paper aims to develop a solution framework for

9、 Turkish real estate markets. The paper would be find challenging. Because, to our knowledge, this is the first attempt to evaluate overall Turkish real estate markets taking both positive and negative sides into account. However it suffers from data availability and statistical modeling, we believe

10、 that the study has a considerable outcome. To better public and non-public purposes real estate management, we think that Real Estate Regulation and Supervision Agency should be established as a new government agency. To our view, primary expectation of this agency is to enhance public interest, cu

11、stomer protection and market efficiency in real estate markets. The paper is organized in four further sections. In section 2, we analyze Turkish economy and real estate market in general. Advantages and disadvantages of the Turkish real estate markets are discussed in section 3. In section 4, we ar

12、e arguing with some reservations that a new government agency should be established to solve current inefficiencies of Turkish real estate markets. And last section is reserved for the conclusion remarks.2. Overview to Turkish economy and real estate sectorTurkey is the 17th largest economy in the w

13、orld. Her GDP at the end of 2008 reached 7418 billion USD. Various international research reports argue that Turkey will be among the ten largest economies in the world in the 40 years to come.According to statistics, Turkey is considered to be a promising country in the greater European region. If

14、it is managed effectively, the country offers several economic benefits to its trade partners and investors. Like other immature sectors, real estate markets shall also offer opportunities. In this section, we aim to overview the facts and trends of Turkish economy and real estate sector.2.1. Turkis

15、h Financial Crisis By virtue of the rapid and uncontrolled financial liberalization approach lived 1980s, Turkey has faced several financial crisis arisen from the banking sector .1982-1985, 1994-1995 and 2000-2002 were the crisis periods for Turkish economy. Followed by year 1980, several financial

16、 restraints were also experienced. The last crisis, namely 2000-2001 banking crisis, was the most destructive one which has radically changed both economic and political pictures of the country. 2.2. Real Estate and the Turkish Economy The area of Turkey is 778.000.000 km. 26% of this area is forest

17、 and 12.3% is pasture area. The rest is the cadastral area which contains 480.000 km, in total. Residential area is about 5% (40.000 km) and rural area is about 56% (440.000 km). Both construction and real estate sectors have critical functions on the growth/ development process of the Turkish econo

18、my. In terms of housing finance/construction activities, the real estate economy affects the level of economic activity, employment rate etc. In this context, the economy requires constant real estate investment due to increasing economic growth，immigration to urban areas, renewals etc. Population g

19、rowth and inter-regional migration have been and will be significant drivers for the Turkish real estate markets. In 2007 the fertility rate was at 2.2 (children per woman) compared to an average fertility rate of 1.5 for the EU-25 countries. With currently more than 53% of inhabitants younger than

20、30 years, this ensures a steady expansion in the number of people of working age. These demographic trends will have a strong impact on housing demand as well as on commercial real estate (Deutsche Bank Research, 2008: 7). Deloitte (2009: 77) estimates that the rapid population increase and the need

21、 for earthquake-resistant housing projects ensured overall growth and construction volume reached 24 bn in 2007. Jones Lang Lasalle (2008:5) underlines that over the last decade Turkeys urban population has increased by some 10 million dwellers, while Istanbul alone has grown by nearly 2 million new

22、 inhabitants. The fall of inflation and interest rates after 2001, and increasing liquidity led to the rise of investments in real estate and construction activities. According to TurkStat (Turkish Statistical Institute), the construction sub-sector has made contribution to the gross national produc

23、ts at a rate 3.5% -5.3% by production approach between years 2004 -2006. According to State Planning Organization (2006：45) the share of the construction sector, where an average of 1,1 million persons are employed, in total employment was realized as 5,3 per cent as of the end of 2005.3. ADVANTAGES

24、 AND DISADVANTAGES of REAL ESTATE SECTOR Although one side of the medal seems bright for Turkey as indicated in the previous section, the objective assessment for the market requires a cost-benefit analysis. In this section, we are attempting to classify both advantages and disadvantages of the Turk

25、ish real estate sector. As part of this analysis, we also present suggestions to develop effectiveness of the market.3.1. Opportunities in Turkish Real Estate Markets The economy and real estate business in Turkey offer several advantages to investors.In this context, fundamentals(geopolitical posit

26、ion; EU positive candidacy industrialization; growing/stable economy etc.), positive sides of demographics and urbanization, İstanbul as emerging metropolis, some public policies on real estate supply, dynamic and creative entrepreneurship, motives in domestic demand and other factors for strong dem

27、and, advantages of REITs (or İstanbul Stock Exchanges positive impacts to real estate business), advantages of being a late comer, developments in regulatory framework and developing academic knowledge would be classified as opportunities (or positive factors) supporting the potential values of Turk

28、ish economy and real estate business. Such factors make positive contributions to the expected rate of return of the real estate investment in Turkey. 3.1.1. Motives in Domestic Demand A high inflationary environment and negative real interest rates, which for many decades were a mainstay of Turkish

29、 economy, resulted in unusual investment patterns for both the Turkish household and corporate sectors. During this period, the emphasis was mostly on investment in precious metals (specifically the gold market) and real estate (Cokun, 2010a: 30).Spending on housing finance and rent consist of consi

30、derable part of consumer payments in Turkey. In this context, Housing Department of Turkey (2003: 5-16) indicates that in the year 1965 the residential leaseholders consists of 38, 66% of the all household. This ratio declined 31,6 % in the year 2000. In other words, 3,5 million people have monthly

31、rent payments in Turkey. Therefore, the residential leaseholders could be seen potential mortgage buyers if affordable loans would be available. European Mortgage Federation (2007: 124) underlines that average housing ratio is 67 % in EU 27 countries. This ratio is 68 % in Belgium (in 2001), 80% in

32、Italy (in 2002) and 75 % in Poland (in 2004). According to TurkStat and Housing Department (2003: 4) owner occupation rate is 68,2 % in Turkey. Although ownership ratio seems high in Turkey, demographics, rural immigration, urbanization, industrialization and renewal are the main components of the s

33、trong domestic demand for residential.3.1.2. Opportunities in İstanbul Real Estate Markets İstanbul is the essential driver of the real estate investments in the country and still needs more office space, upper/middle class residential, logistics and hotel investments. Although the estimated numbers would