低碳经济的外文翻译.docx

低碳经济的外文翻译.docx

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低碳经济的外文翻译

外文翻译

原文：

Lowcarboneconomy

ThispaperexaminesdifferentcarbonpathwaysforachievingdeepCO2reductiontargetsfortheUKusingamacro-econometrichybridmodelE3MG,whichstandsforEnergy–Economy–EnvironmentModelattheGloballevel.TheE3MG,withcombinesatop-downapproachformodelingtheglobaleconomyandforestimatingtheaggregateanddisaggregateenergydemandandabottom-upapproach（EnergyTechnologysubModel,ETM）forsimulatingthepowersector,whichthenprovidesfeedbacktotheenergydemandequationsandthewholeeconomy.TheETMsubmodelusesaprobabilisticapproachandhistoricaldataforestimatingthepenetrationlevelsofthedifferenttechnologies,consideringtheireconomic,technicalandenvironmentalcharacteristics.Threepathwayscenarios（CFH,CLCandCAM）simulatetheCO2reductionby40%,60%and80%by2050comparedto1990levelsrespectivelyandarecomparedwithareferencescenario,withnoreductiontarget.ThetargetsaremodeledastheUKcontributiontoaninternationalmitigationeffort,suchasachievingtheG8reductiontargets,whichisamorerealisticpoliticalframeworkfortheUKtomovetowardsdeepreductionsratherthanmovingalone.ThispaperaimstoprovidemodelingevidencethatdeepreductiontargetscanbemetthroughdifferentcarbonpathwayswhilealsoassessingthemacroeconomiceffectsofthepathwaysonGDPandinvestment.

Climatechange,asaresultofrisinggreenhousegasemissions,threatensthestabilityoftheworld’sclimate,economyandpopulation.Thecausesandconsequencesofclimatechangeareglobal,andwhilenationalgovernmentscanandshouldtakeaction,theultimatesolutionmustbeacollectiveglobaleffort.Thelatestscientificconsensus（IPCC,2007）hasfurtherstrengthenedtheevidencebasethatitisverylikelythatanthropogenicGHGemissionsatorabovecurrentrateswouldcausefurtherwarmingandinducemanychangesintheglobalclimatesystemduringthe21stcentury.Amajorrecentreportontheeconomicsofglobalclimatechange（Stern,2006）supportsthepositionthatthebenefitsofstringentclimatemitigationactionoutweighedthecostsandrisksofdelayedaction.Althoughthereisaglobalconsiderationoftheclimatechangeeffects,individualcountrieshaveundertakendifferentstepsinclimatechangemitigation,whichisobviousgiventheextendednegotiationstowardstheratificationoftheKyotoProtocol.TheEUandindividualMemberStateshaveundertakenseveralcommitmentsanddirectedseveralpoliciestowardsthereductionoftheiremissions.UKhasbeenselectedforthisanalysisasthereispoliticalwillwithinthecountry,asdescribedbelowfromthecommitmentstotackleclimatechange.Butthiscommitmentcanbeexaminedinthecontextofnegotiationsatinternationallevel,suchastherecentcommitmentofG8toreducetheiremissionsby80%by2050.

ClimatechangemitigationandenergysecurityaretheUK’scoreenergypolicygoals（BERR,2007）.Inaddition,thedeclineindomesticreservesandproductionofUKoilandnaturalgas,combinedwithincreasinggeopoliticalinstabilitiesinkeygasandoilproductionandtransmissioncountrieshavehighlightedtheneedforasecureandresilientUKenergysystem.OtherUKenergypolicygoalsarereductionsinvulnerableconsumers’exposuretohighenergypricesandacontinuedemphasisonopenandcompetitiveenergymarkets.

TheUKsetitselfagroundbreakingclimatechangemitigationpolicywiththepublicationofalong-termnationalCO2reductiontargetof60%by2050（DTI,2003）.ThistargetwasestablishedinresponsetotheclimatechallengesetoutbytheRoyalCommissiononEnvironmentalPollution（RCEP,2000）.Climatechangemitigationtargetswerereaffirmedinlightofcompetingenergysecurityissuesviathe2007EnergyWhitepaper（BERR,2007）.The60%UKCO2reductionstargetisbeingestablishedintheUKlegislativeprocessthroughtheClimateChangeBillastheminimumCO2reductiontargetrequiredby2050（DEFRA,2008）.ThislongertermtargethasbeenfurtheranalyzedbythenewregulatoryCommitteeonClimateChange（CCC,2008）,inlightofnewevidenceconcerningglobalstabilizationtargets（IPCC,2007）.Thishasledtotheproposalforan80%reductiontargetforgreenhousegasesby2050comparedto1990levels.ThistargethasbeenadoptedbytheBrownAdministrationandtheEnergyandClimateChangeSecretaryofStateEdMiliband,becomingalawthroughtheClimateChangeAct（DECC,2008）.Additionally,theUKhasbeenaleadingproponentofgloballong-termCO2targetsettingwithintheG8,asthecausesandconsequencesofclimatechangeareglobal,andwhilenationalgovernmentscanandshouldtakeaction,theultimatesolutionmustbeacollectiveglobaleffort.TheG8dialogueresultedinagreementatthe2009G8Italiansummitforarobustresponsetoclimatechangeincludingtheadoptionofthegoaltoachieveatleast80%reductionoftheiremissionsby2050,andaimingtoreachanagreementofa50%reductioninglobalemissionswithothercountries.

TheimplementationofthreedeepCO2reductiontargets（40%,60%and80%）fortheG8isexaminedusingthemacro-econometricE3MGmodel.ResultsarereportedfortheUK,whichisselectedasthereisapoliticalwilltoimplementsuchreductions.Thesetargets,examinedwithintheUKEnergyResearchCenter’s2050project（UKERC,2050）,aremetthroughtheimplementationofaportfolioofpoliciesincontrasttotheneoclassicalapproach,wherethetargetsareimposedandthemarginalabatementcostformeetingthosetargetsisestimated.Thepapercontributesbyadoptinganovelhybridapproachintegratingsimulationmodelsoftheeconomicsystemandenergytechnologiesandthereforeprovidinganalternativeapproachtothetraditionaleconomicequilibriummodeling.Moreoverthepaperaimstoprovideevidencethatthereexistpathwaysformeetingdeepreductiontargetsandalsohelpingtheeconomytogrow.TheneedforsuchevidencehasbeennotedbytheIPCCinitsassessmentoftheliteratureonstringentmitigationtargets.Suchevidencecaninformtheinternationalnegotiationsforapost-Kyotoglobalagreement.

Long-termforecastoftheeconomyandoftheenergysystemexpansionissubjecttouncertaintiesonfossilfuelresources,prices,economicandtechnicalcharacteristicsofnewtechnologies,behavioralchange,politicalframeworkandregulatoryenvironment.Butthemodelingapproachimplementedtosimulatetheenergysystemandtheinteractionwiththeglobaleconomyiscrucialfortheresults.Therearemanymodelingapproachesusedforexaminingenergyandclimatepoliciesatglobaloratnationalleveleitherthroughmacroorenergysystemmodels.Intheextensiveliteratureonenergy-economicmodelingofenergyandclimatepolicies,therearetwowidespreadmodelingapproaches:

bottom-upvs.top-downmodels.Thetwomodelclassesdiffermainlywithrespecttotheemphasisplacedontechnologicaldetailsoftheenergysystemandthecomprehensivenessofendogenousmarketadjustments（BohringerandRutherford,2007）.However,recentevaluationsoftheliterature（IPCC,2007）haveshowntheincreasingconvergenceofthesemodelcategoriesaseachgroupofmodelersadoptsthestrengthsofthealternateapproach.Thereisalongtrackrecordofenergymodelsunderpinningmajorenergypolicyinitiatives,producingalargeandvibrantresearchcommunityandabroadrangeofenergymodelingapproaches（JebaraandIniyan,2006）.Particularlyinrecentyears,energymodelshavebeendirectlyappliedbypolicymakersforlong-termdecarburizationscenarios（IEA,2008;Dasetal.,2007;EuropeanCommission,2006）,withfurtheracademicmodelingcollaborationsdirectlyfeedingintotheglobalpolicydebateonclimatechangemitigation（Weyant,2004;StrachanNeiletal.,2009）.

Beforederivinganyparticularconclusionfromthescenariospresentedinthispaper,itisimportanttoconsiderthemodelingapproachandthewaythescenarioshavebeenimplementedwithE3MG.E3MGbeingamacro-econometricmodeloftheglobaleconomyhastheadvantageofexaminingpoliciesatglobalandatnationallevel,whichismoreimportantincasesofinternationalefforts.The40%,60%and80%reductiontargetsarenotrealisticoptionsifimplementedonlybyUKbecausetheywouldnotleadtoasignificantreductioninclimatechangeandbecausenosinglecountrywouldeasilytakeadecisionmovingtowardssuchpoliciesonitsown.ForthesereasonsweassumethattheemissionsreductiontargetsfortheUKareimplementedaspartofinternationalreductiontargets.BasedonthefactsthattheObamaUSAAdministrationiscommittedtofindingsolutiontoclimatechangeissueandthemajordevelopingcountriesarereluctanttoadoptsuchpoliciesinthemediumterm,aG8reductiontargetof40%,60%and80%by2050comparedto1990levelsseemstobeamorerealisticframework.

TheE3MGmodeladoptsahybridapproach.Theaggregateanddisaggregateenergydemandisestimatedusingeconometrictechniques,allowingforfuelswitchingforthe12differentfueltypesandforthe19fuelusers,whilethepowersectorissimulatedusingaprobabilisticapproachwhichconsiderstheeconomic,technical,environmentalcharacteristicsofthepowerunitsbutconsidersalsothehistory.Theelectricsystemexpansionismodeledbyusingparametersforthedifferenttechnologiesbasedonhistoricaldataonlearningrates,whichallowsnewtechnologiestogainashareinthemarketevenwhentheircostishigherthanconventionaltechnologies.Moreoverthedispatchofthedifferenttechnologiestomeettheelectricdemand,althoughusingthecostoptimizationapproachcomparingthepenetrationofthedifferenttechnologies,takeshistoricaldataasitsstart