交易为生.docx

交易为生.docx

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交易为生

Chartistsstudymarketaction,tryingtoidentifyrecurrentpricepatterns.

Theirgoalistoprofitfromtradingwhenpatternsrecur.Mostchartistswork

withbargraphsshowinghigh,low,andclosingpricesandvolume.Some

alsowatchopeningpricesandopeninterest.Point-and-figurechartiststrack

onlypricechangesandignoretime,volume,andopeninterest.

Classicalchartingrequiresonlyapencilandpaper.Itappealstovisually

orientedpeople.Thosewhoplotdatabyhandoftendevelopaphysicalfeel

forprices.Computersspeedchartingatacostoflosingsomeofthatfeel.

Thebiggestprobleminchartingiswishfulthinking.Tradersoftenconvince

themselvesthatapatternisbullishorbearishdependingonwhether

theywanttobuyortosell.

EarlyinthiscenturyHermanRorschach,aSwisspsychiatrist,designeda

testforexploringaperson'smind.Hedroppedinkon10sheetsofpaperand

foldedeachinhalf,creatingasymmetricalinkblot.Mostpeoplewhopeerat

thesesheetsdescribewhattheysee:

partsoftheanatomy,animals,buildings,

andsoon.Inreality,thereareonlyinkblots!

Eachpersonseeswhat'sonhis

mind.MosttradersusechartsasagiantRorschachtest.Theyprojecttheir

hopes,fears,andfantasiesontothecharts.

BriefHistory

ThefirstchartistsintheUnitedStatesappearedattheturnofthecentury.

TheyincludedCharlesDow,theauthorofafamousstockmarkettheory,and

WilliamHamilton,whosucceededDowastheeditoroftheWallStreet

Journal.Dow'sfamousmaximwas"Theaveragesdiscounteverything."He

meantthatchangesintheDowJonesIndustrialandRailAveragesreflected

allknowledgeandhopesabouttheeconomyandthestockmarket.

Downeverwroteabook,onlytheWallStreetJournaleditorials.

HamiltontookoverthejobafterDowdiedandstruckablowforcharting

whenhewrote"TheTurnoftheTide,"aneditorialfollowingthe1929crash.

HamiltonlaidouttheprinciplesofDowtheoryinhisbook,TheStock

MarketBarometer.RobertRhea,anewsletterpublisher,broughtthetheory

toitspinnacleinhis1932book,TheDowTheory.

Thedecadeofthe1930swastheGoldenAgeofcharting.Manyinnovators

foundthemselveswithtimeontheirhandsafterthecrashof1929.Schabaker,

Rhea,Elliott,Wyckoff,Gann,andotherspublishedtheirresearchduringthat

decade.Theirworkwentintwodistinctdirections.Some,suchasWyckoff

andSchabaker,sawchartsasagraphicrecordofsupplyanddemandinthe

markets.Others,suchasElliottandGann,searchedforaperfectorderinthe

markets-afascinatingbutfutileundertaking（seeSection6）.

In1948,Edwards（whowasason-in-lawofSchabaker）andMageepublished

TechnicalAnalysisofStockTrends.Theypopularizedsuchconcepts

astriangles,rectangles,head-and-shoulders,andotherchartformations,as

wellassupportandresistanceandtrendlines.Otherchartistshaveapplied

theseconceptstocommodities.

MarketshavechangedagreatdealsincethedaysofEdwardsandMagee.

Inthe1940s,dailyvolumeofanactivestockontheNewYorkStock

Exchangewasonlyseveralhundredshares,whileinthe1990sitoften

exceedsamillion.Thebalanceofpowerinthestockmarkethasshiftedin

favorofbulls.Earlychartistswrotethatstockmarkettopsweresharpand

fast,whilebottomstookalongtimetodevelop.Thatwastrueintheirdeflationary

era,buttheoppositehasbeentruesincethe1950s.Nowbottoms

tendtoformquicklywhiletopstendtotakelonger.

TheMeaningofaBarChart

Chartpatternsreflectthetidesofgreedandfearamongtraders.Thisbook

focusesondailycharts,butyoucanapplymanyofitsprinciplestoother

data.Therulesforreadingweekly,daily,hourly,orintradaychartsarevery

similar.

Eachpriceisamomentaryconsensusofvalueofallmarketparticipantsexpressedinaction.Eachpricebarprovidesseveralpiecesofinformationaboutthebalanceofpowerbetweenbullsandbears.

Theopeningpriceofadailyoraweeklybarusuallyreflectstheamateurs'

opinionofvalue.Theyreadmorningpapers,findoutwhathappened

thedaybefore,andcalltheirbrokerswithordersbeforegoingtowork.

Amateursareespeciallyactiveearlyinthedayandearlyintheweek.

Traderswhoresearchedtherelationshipbetweenopeningandclosingprices

forseveraldecadesfoundthatopeningpricesmostoftenoccurnearthehighor

thelowofthedailybars.Buyingorsellingbyamateursearlyinthedaycreates

anemotionalextremefromwhichpricesrecoillaterintheday.

Inbullmarkets,pricesoftenmaketheirlowfortheweekonMondayor

Tuesdayonprofittakingbyamateurs,thenrallytoanewhighonThursday

orFriday.Inbearmarkets,thehighfortheweekisoftensetonMondayor

Tuesday,withanewlowtowardtheendoftheweek,onThursdayorFriday.

Theclosingpricesofdailyandweeklybarstendtoreflecttheactionsof

professionaltraders.Theywatchthemarketsthroughouttheday,respondto

changes,andbecomeespeciallyactiveneartheclose.Manyofthemtake

profitsatthattimetoavoidcarryingtradesovernight.

Professionalsasagroupusuallytradeagainsttheamateurs.Theytendto

buyloweropenings,sellshorthigheropenings,andunwindtheirpositionsas

thedaygoeson.Tradersneedtopayattentiontotherelationshipbetween

openingandclosingprices.Ifpricesclosedhigherthantheyopened,then

marketprofessionalswereprobablymorebullishthanamateurs.Ifprices

closedlowerthantheyopened,thenmarketprofessionalswereprobably

morebearishthanamateurs.Itpaystotradewiththeprofessionalsand

againsttheamateurs.

Thehighofeachbarrepresentsthemaximumpowerofbullsduringthat

bar.Bullsmakemoneywhenpricesgoup.Theirbuyingpushesprices

higher,andeveryuptickaddstotheirprofits.Finally,bullsreachapoint

wheretheycannotliftprices-notevenbyonemoretick.Thehighofadaily

barrepresentsthemaximumpowerofbullsduringtheday,andthehighofa

weeklybarmarksthemaximumpowerofbullsduringtheweek;thehighof

a5-minutebarreflectsthemaximumpowerofbullsduringthat5-minute

period.Thehighestpointofabarrepresentsthemaximumpowerofbulls

duringthatbar.

Thelowofeachbarrepresentsthemaximumpowerofbearsduringthat

bar.Bearsmakemoneywhenpricesgodown.Theykeepsellingshort,their

sellingpushespriceslower,andeverydowntickaddstotheirprofits.At

somepointtheyrunoutofeithercapitalorenthusiasm,andpricesstop

falling.Thelowofeachbarshowsthemaximumpowerofbearsduringthat

bar.Thelowofadailybarmarksthemaximumpowerofbearsduringthat

day,andthelowofaweeklybaridentifiesthemaximumpowerofbearsduring

thatweek.

Theclosingtickofeachbarrevealstheoutcomeofabattlebetween

bullsandbearsduringthatbar.Ifpricesclosenearthehighofthedailybar,

itshowsthatbullswontheday'sbattle.Ifpricesclosenearthelowofthe

day,itshowsthatbearswontheday.Closingpricesondailychartsofthe

futuresmarketsareespeciallyimportant.Theamountofmoneyinyour

accountdependsonthembecauseyouraccountequityis"markedtomarket"

eachnight.

Thedistancebetweenthehighandthelowofanybarrevealstheinten18.

sityofconflictbetweenbullsandbears.Anaveragebarmarksarelatively

coolmarket.Abarthatisonlyhalfaslongasaveragerevealsasleepy,disinterested

market.Abarthatistwotimestallerthanaverageshowsaboiling

marketwherebullsandbearsbattlealloverthefield.

Slippage（seeSection3）isusuallylowerinquietmarkets.Itpaystoenter

yourtradesduringshortornormalbars.Tallbarsaregoodfortakingprofits.

Tryingtoputonapositionwhenthemarketisrunningislikejumpingona

movingtrain.Itisbettertowaitforthenextone.

JapaneseCandlesticks

Japanesericetradersbeganusingcandlestickchartssometwocenturies

beforethefirstchartistsappearedinAmerica.Insteadofbars,thesecharts

haverowsofcandleswithwicksatbothends.Thebodyofeachcandlerep

resentsthedistancebetweentheopeningandclosingprices.Iftheclosing

priceishigherthantheopening,thebodyiswhite.Iftheclosingpriceis

lower,thebodyisblack.

Thetipoftheupperwickrepresentsthehighoftheday,andthebottomof

thelowerwickrepresentsthelowoftheday.TheJapaneseconsiderhighsand

lowsrelativelyunimportant,accordingtoSteveNison,authorofJapanese

CandlestickChartingTechniques.Theyfocusontherelationshipbetween

openingandclosingpricesandonpatternsthatincludeseveralcandles.

Themainadvantageofacandlestickchartisitsfocusonthestruggle

betweenamateurswhocontrolopeningsandprofessionalswhocontrolclosings.

Unfortunately,mostcandlestickchartistsfailtousemanytoolsof

Westemanalysts.Theyignorevolumeandhavenotrendlinesortechnical

indicators.ThesegapsarebeingfilledbymodemAmericananalystssuchas

GregMorris,whoseCandlepowersoftwarecombinesWesterntechnical

indicatorswithclassicalcandlestickpatterns.

MarketProfile

Thischartingtechniquefortrackingaccumulationanddistributionduring

eachtradingsessionwasdevelopedbyJ.PeterSteidlmayer.MarketProfile

requiresaccesstoreal-timedata-aconstantflowofquotesthroughoutthe

day.Itassignsoneletterofthealphabettoeachhalf-houroftrading.Each

pricelevelreachedduringthathalf-hourismarkedwithitsownletter.

Aspriceschange,moreandmorelettersfillthescreen,creatingabell74

CLASSICALCHARTANALYSIS

shapedcurve.Whenpriceseruptinatrend,MarketProfilereflectsthatby

becomingelongated.MarketProfileissometimescombinedwithLiq