Transcript of a Press Briefing on the World Economic OutlookWord格式.docx
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WelcometoeveryonewatchingviathewebcastandontheOnlineMediaBriefingCenter.WewillbetakingquestionsfromjournalistsbothintheroomhereinWashingtonandviatheMediaBriefingCenter.
Letmeintroducetheparticipants.WehaveOlivierBlanchard,EconomicCounsellorandDirectorofResearchattheIMF;
Jö
rgDecressin,SeniorAdvisorofResearchattheIMF,andAbdulAbiad,whoiswiththeWorldEconomicStudiesDivisionoftheResearchDepartment.
Olivierwillhavesomebriefopeningremarks.Wewillhavethemavailableatendofthebriefingandthenwewilltakeyourquestions.
Mr.Blanchard-Thankyou,Bill.Goodmorning.
TheworldeconomicrecoveryisgainingstrengthbutitremainsunbalancedandthatiswhatIamgoingtodevelopinthenextfewminutes.Thebestwaytomakethepointistogiveyouthreenumbers.Fortheworldeconomy,forboth2011and2012,weexpectthegrowthratetobeabout4½
percent,afairlyhighgrowthrate,butifyoulookatthedetailsyoufindthatforadvancedeconomiesweforecastonlyabout2½
percentforeachofthetwoyears,andfortheemerginganddevelopingcountriesweforecast6½
percentforeachofthenexttwoyears,so4½
2½
6.½
.
Letmestartwiththegoodnews,thestrengtheningoftherecovery.Earliertherewerefearsofadoubledip.Wedidnotsharethem,buttheywerethere.Theyhavenotmaterialized.Themainworrywasthatinadvancedeconomies,afteraninitialrecoverywhichwasdrivenbytheinventorycycleandfiscalstimulus,thiswouldcometoanendandgrowthwouldfizzle.Thathasnothappened.Theinventorycycleislargelyover,fiscalstimulushasturnedinmostplacestofiscalconsolidation,butprivatedemand,consumption,andinvestmenthavetakentherelay.Thatisverygoodnews.It[thedoublediprecession]issomethingwhichdidnothappen;
couldhavehappened,andthefactitdidnotisgoodnews.
Fearshaveturnedtocommodityprices.Commoditypriceshaveincreasedmorethanexpected,reflectingacombinationofstrongdemandgrowthandanumberofsupplyshocks.Whenyouthinkabouttheseincreases,youthinkaboutthe1970sandtheterriblestagflationthatwehadthen.Wedonotthinkatthistimethattheseincreaseswillderailtherecovery.
Ifyoulookatadvancedcountries,thedecreaseintheshareofoil,thedisappearanceofwageindexationeitherdejureordefacto,andtheanchoringofinflationexpectationsallcombinetosuggestsmalleffectsoneithergrowthorcoreinflation.Inemergingmarketcountries,thechallengeisstronger,largelybecausetheshareoffoodinconsumptionislarger,andthecredibilityofsomeoftheemergingmarketcentralbanksisstillweak.
So,inthesecountries,theyhavetobemorecareful.Itcouldbethatinflationmaybeabithigherforsometime,butasourforecastsindicate,wedonotexpectthistohaveamajoradverseeffectongrowth.Letmeremindyouofour6½
percentforecastforthissetofcountries.
Nowletmeturntothebadnews,whichisabouttheunbalancedaspectoftherecovery.Inmostadvancedeconomies,outputisstillfarbelowpotential.Unemploymentishigh,andlowgrowthimpliesthatitwillremainsoformanyyearstocome.Thesourceoflowgrowthcanbetracedtobothpre-crisisexcessesandtowoundsfromthecrisis.Inmanycountries,especiallytheUS,thehousingmarketisdepressed—thereisnootherwordforit—leadingtoanemichousinginvestment.Thiswillcontinueforsometime.
Thecrisisitselfhasledtoalargedeteriorationinfiscalpositions,forcingashiftfromfiscalstimulustofiscalconsolidation,andatthesametimenoteliminatingmarketworriesaboutfiscalsustainability.Finally,inmanycountries,banksarestrugglingtoachievehighercapitalratiosinthefaceofincreasingnonperformingloans.
TheproblemsofperipheralEurope,whichcombinetheseinteractionsbetweenlowgrowth,fiscalwoes,andfinancialpressures,areparticularlyacute.Reestablishingfiscalandfinancialsustainability,inthefaceoflowornegativegrowthandhighinterestrates,isasubstantialchallengeandwilltaketime.And,whiletheyareextreme,theproblemsofperipheralEuropepointtoamoregeneralproblemandafundamentalone,anunderlyinglowrateofgrowthofpotentialoutput.Adjustment,beitfiscal,financial,orotherwise,isverydifficulttodowhengrowthislow.
NowthepolicyadvicetoadvancedcountriesremainslargelythesameasitwaslastOctoberorevenpreviousWEOs,insofarasithasbeenonlypartlyheededThisincludes,foradvancedeconomies:
increasedclarityonbanks’exposureswith,importantly,readyrecapitalizationplansifandwhereneeded;
smartfiscalconsolidationthatisnottoofast,whichwouldkillgrowth,andnottooslow,whichwouldkillcredibility;
redesignoffinancialregulationandsupervision;
and,especiallyinEurope,anincreasedfocusonreformstoincreasepotentialgrowth.
Nowletmeturntoemergingmarketcountries.Inemergingmarketcountriesthecrisishasnotleftdeepmarksordeepwounds.Theirfiscalandfinancialpositionsweretypicallystrongertostart,andadverseeffectsofthecrisishavebeenmoremuted.Highunderlyinggrowthandlowinterestratesaremakingfiscaladjustmentmucheasierthaninadvancedcountries.Exportshavelargelyrecovered,andwhatevershortfallinexternaldemandsomeofthesecountriesexperiencedtheyhavemadeupthroughanincreaseindomesticdemand.Capitaloutflows,whichdominatedduringthecrisis,haveturnedtocapitalinflowsbothduetobettergrowthprospectsinthatpartoftheworldandtohigherinterestrates.
Sothechallengeforemergingmarketcountriesisverydifferentfromthatfacingadvancedcountries,namelyitistoavoidoverheatinginthefaceofaclosingoutputgapandhighercapitalflows.Whatshouldbetheresponse?
Theresponseshouldbetwofold:
first,onthemacroside,torelyonacombinationofhigherinterestratesandfiscalconsolidationtomaintainoutputatpotential;
second,touseacombinationofreserveaccumulationandmacro-prudentialtools,including,whereneeded,capitalcontrols,toavoidincreasesinsystemicriskstemmingfrominflows.
Now,countriesareoftentemptedtoresisttheexchangerateappreciation,whichislikelytocomewithhigherinterestratesandhigherinflows.Butwithinlimitsappreciationisgood:
appreciationincreasesrealincome,ispartofthedesirableadjustment,andshouldnotberesisted.
Letmereturntotheoverallpicture.Overall,themacropolicyagendafortheworldeconomyremainsthesame,butwithtime,probablymoreurgent.Fortherecoverytobesustained,advancedcountriesmustachievefiscalconsolidation.Todoso,andtomaintaingrowth,theyneedtorelyonincreasedexternaldemand.Symmetrically,emergingmarketcountriesmustrelylessonexternaldemandandmoreondomesticdemand.
Appreciationofemergingmarketcountries'
currenciesrelativetoadvancedcountries'
currenciesisacentralkeytothisglobaladjustment;
itisnottheonlykeybutitisacentralkey.Theneedforcarefuldesignofpoliciesatthenationallevel,coordinatedatthegloballevel,maybeasimportanttodayasitwasatthepeakofthecrisistwoyearsago.
Thankyouverymuch.
Mr.Murray:
Wearegoingtotakequestionsfromtheaudience.Pleaseidentifyyourselvesforourviewers.
Questions–
1.AboutItalyeconomy
IseefromyourprojectionsthatyouexpectamuchslowerfiscaladjustmentforItalythanthegovernmentexpects.Youhaveadeficitof3.5percentstillin2012whereasthegovernmentisat3orbelow3.Iwouldlikeyoutoexplainthis.ItalyisalsotheslowestgrowingcountryintheG-7,probablyamongmostadvancedcountries.CouldyoupleaseexplainthereasonforthisslowgrowthandwhatwouldbeyourpolicyadvicetoItalyintermsofpromotingfastergrowth?
Mr.Decressin:
-Asfarasfiscalpolicyisconcerned,weunderstandthattheobjectiveoftheItaliangovernmentistoreducethedeficitto3percent,orbelow,bytheyear2013.Infact,Italybytheyear2013isgoingtobeprettyclosetoreachingthatobjectiveaccordingtoourforecast,closerthanmanyotherEuroAreaeconomies.Itwill,however,stillneedsomeadditionalmeasuresinordertoreachthatobjective,givenalsotherelativelysubduedgrowthratethatweareforecastingfor2011and2012ofjustbetween1and11/4percent.
Now,youaskedwhythatisthecase.Italyhasbeenstrugglingwithgrowthforawhile.Thegrowthratehasbeenrelativelylowforanextendedperiodnowandwetraceittostructuralrigiditiesintheeconomy.Onthatfront,wehavebeenpushingforpoliciestoimproveeducation,alsothewaythejusticeapparatusworks,localservices,andalsotoreformduallabormarkets;
thatistosay,labormarketsthatofferstrongprotectiontosomebutlessprotectiontoothers.
2.AboutJapaneseeconomy
IwanttoaskabouttheJapaneseeconomyandtheearthquakeandtsunamiissue.Youassumedthatthepowershortageandnuclearpowerplantaccidentwouldberesolvedinafewmonths,twoorthreemonths,butsomeexpertsworryaboutitcontinuingmuchmore,abouthalfayearormore.AreyouafraidthattheJapaneseeconomywouldbegrowingmoreslowly?
Secondly,Iwanttoaskaboutthesupplychainissue.Japaneseautomobile(partmakers)makepartsandsomeUScompaniesandothercompaniesdonotmakeproductsfully.Whatisyoura