Transcript of a Press Briefing on the World Economic OutlookWord格式.docx

Transcript of a Press Briefing on the World Economic OutlookWord格式.docx

《Transcript of a Press Briefing on the World Economic OutlookWord格式.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《Transcript of a Press Briefing on the World Economic OutlookWord格式.docx（11页珍藏版）》请在冰豆网上搜索。

WelcometoeveryonewatchingviathewebcastandontheOnlineMediaBriefingCenter.WewillbetakingquestionsfromjournalistsbothintheroomhereinWashingtonandviatheMediaBriefingCenter.

Letmeintroducetheparticipants.WehaveOlivierBlanchard,EconomicCounsellorandDirectorofResearchattheIMF;

Jö

rgDecressin,SeniorAdvisorofResearchattheIMF,andAbdulAbiad,whoiswiththeWorldEconomicStudiesDivisionoftheResearchDepartment.

Olivierwillhavesomebriefopeningremarks.Wewillhavethemavailableatendofthebriefingandthenwewilltakeyourquestions.

Mr.Blanchard-Thankyou,Bill.Goodmorning.

TheworldeconomicrecoveryisgainingstrengthbutitremainsunbalancedandthatiswhatIamgoingtodevelopinthenextfewminutes.Thebestwaytomakethepointistogiveyouthreenumbers.Fortheworldeconomy,forboth2011and2012,weexpectthegrowthratetobeabout4½

percent,afairlyhighgrowthrate,butifyoulookatthedetailsyoufindthatforadvancedeconomiesweforecastonlyabout2½

percentforeachofthetwoyears,andfortheemerginganddevelopingcountriesweforecast6½

percentforeachofthenexttwoyears,so4½

2½

6.½

.

Letmestartwiththegoodnews,thestrengtheningoftherecovery.Earliertherewerefearsofadoubledip.Wedidnotsharethem,buttheywerethere.Theyhavenotmaterialized.Themainworrywasthatinadvancedeconomies,afteraninitialrecoverywhichwasdrivenbytheinventorycycleandfiscalstimulus,thiswouldcometoanendandgrowthwouldfizzle.Thathasnothappened.Theinventorycycleislargelyover,fiscalstimulushasturnedinmostplacestofiscalconsolidation,butprivatedemand,consumption,andinvestmenthavetakentherelay.Thatisverygoodnews.It[thedoublediprecession]issomethingwhichdidnothappen;

couldhavehappened,andthefactitdidnotisgoodnews.

Fearshaveturnedtocommodityprices.Commoditypriceshaveincreasedmorethanexpected,reflectingacombinationofstrongdemandgrowthandanumberofsupplyshocks.Whenyouthinkabouttheseincreases,youthinkaboutthe1970sandtheterriblestagflationthatwehadthen.Wedonotthinkatthistimethattheseincreaseswillderailtherecovery.

Ifyoulookatadvancedcountries,thedecreaseintheshareofoil,thedisappearanceofwageindexationeitherdejureordefacto,andtheanchoringofinflationexpectationsallcombinetosuggestsmalleffectsoneithergrowthorcoreinflation.Inemergingmarketcountries,thechallengeisstronger,largelybecausetheshareoffoodinconsumptionislarger,andthecredibilityofsomeoftheemergingmarketcentralbanksisstillweak.

So,inthesecountries,theyhavetobemorecareful.Itcouldbethatinflationmaybeabithigherforsometime,butasourforecastsindicate,wedonotexpectthistohaveamajoradverseeffectongrowth.Letmeremindyouofour6½

percentforecastforthissetofcountries.

Nowletmeturntothebadnews,whichisabouttheunbalancedaspectoftherecovery.Inmostadvancedeconomies,outputisstillfarbelowpotential.Unemploymentishigh,andlowgrowthimpliesthatitwillremainsoformanyyearstocome.Thesourceoflowgrowthcanbetracedtobothpre-crisisexcessesandtowoundsfromthecrisis.Inmanycountries,especiallytheUS,thehousingmarketisdepressed—thereisnootherwordforit—leadingtoanemichousinginvestment.Thiswillcontinueforsometime.

Thecrisisitselfhasledtoalargedeteriorationinfiscalpositions,forcingashiftfromfiscalstimulustofiscalconsolidation,andatthesametimenoteliminatingmarketworriesaboutfiscalsustainability.Finally,inmanycountries,banksarestrugglingtoachievehighercapitalratiosinthefaceofincreasingnonperformingloans.

TheproblemsofperipheralEurope,whichcombinetheseinteractionsbetweenlowgrowth,fiscalwoes,andfinancialpressures,areparticularlyacute.Reestablishingfiscalandfinancialsustainability,inthefaceoflowornegativegrowthandhighinterestrates,isasubstantialchallengeandwilltaketime.And,whiletheyareextreme,theproblemsofperipheralEuropepointtoamoregeneralproblemandafundamentalone,anunderlyinglowrateofgrowthofpotentialoutput.Adjustment,beitfiscal,financial,orotherwise,isverydifficulttodowhengrowthislow.

NowthepolicyadvicetoadvancedcountriesremainslargelythesameasitwaslastOctoberorevenpreviousWEOs,insofarasithasbeenonlypartlyheededThisincludes,foradvancedeconomies:

increasedclarityonbanks’exposureswith,importantly,readyrecapitalizationplansifandwhereneeded;

smartfiscalconsolidationthatisnottoofast,whichwouldkillgrowth,andnottooslow,whichwouldkillcredibility;

redesignoffinancialregulationandsupervision;

and,especiallyinEurope,anincreasedfocusonreformstoincreasepotentialgrowth.

Nowletmeturntoemergingmarketcountries.Inemergingmarketcountriesthecrisishasnotleftdeepmarksordeepwounds.Theirfiscalandfinancialpositionsweretypicallystrongertostart,andadverseeffectsofthecrisishavebeenmoremuted.Highunderlyinggrowthandlowinterestratesaremakingfiscaladjustmentmucheasierthaninadvancedcountries.Exportshavelargelyrecovered,andwhatevershortfallinexternaldemandsomeofthesecountriesexperiencedtheyhavemadeupthroughanincreaseindomesticdemand.Capitaloutflows,whichdominatedduringthecrisis,haveturnedtocapitalinflowsbothduetobettergrowthprospectsinthatpartoftheworldandtohigherinterestrates.

Sothechallengeforemergingmarketcountriesisverydifferentfromthatfacingadvancedcountries,namelyitistoavoidoverheatinginthefaceofaclosingoutputgapandhighercapitalflows.Whatshouldbetheresponse?

Theresponseshouldbetwofold:

first,onthemacroside,torelyonacombinationofhigherinterestratesandfiscalconsolidationtomaintainoutputatpotential;

second,touseacombinationofreserveaccumulationandmacro-prudentialtools,including,whereneeded,capitalcontrols,toavoidincreasesinsystemicriskstemmingfrominflows.

Now,countriesareoftentemptedtoresisttheexchangerateappreciation,whichislikelytocomewithhigherinterestratesandhigherinflows.Butwithinlimitsappreciationisgood:

appreciationincreasesrealincome,ispartofthedesirableadjustment,andshouldnotberesisted.

Letmereturntotheoverallpicture.Overall,themacropolicyagendafortheworldeconomyremainsthesame,butwithtime,probablymoreurgent.Fortherecoverytobesustained,advancedcountriesmustachievefiscalconsolidation.Todoso,andtomaintaingrowth,theyneedtorelyonincreasedexternaldemand.Symmetrically,emergingmarketcountriesmustrelylessonexternaldemandandmoreondomesticdemand.

Appreciationofemergingmarketcountries'

currenciesrelativetoadvancedcountries'

currenciesisacentralkeytothisglobaladjustment;

itisnottheonlykeybutitisacentralkey.Theneedforcarefuldesignofpoliciesatthenationallevel,coordinatedatthegloballevel,maybeasimportanttodayasitwasatthepeakofthecrisistwoyearsago.

Thankyouverymuch.

Mr.Murray:

Wearegoingtotakequestionsfromtheaudience.Pleaseidentifyyourselvesforourviewers.

Questions–

1.AboutItalyeconomy

IseefromyourprojectionsthatyouexpectamuchslowerfiscaladjustmentforItalythanthegovernmentexpects.Youhaveadeficitof3.5percentstillin2012whereasthegovernmentisat3orbelow3.Iwouldlikeyoutoexplainthis.ItalyisalsotheslowestgrowingcountryintheG-7,probablyamongmostadvancedcountries.CouldyoupleaseexplainthereasonforthisslowgrowthandwhatwouldbeyourpolicyadvicetoItalyintermsofpromotingfastergrowth?

Mr.Decressin:

-Asfarasfiscalpolicyisconcerned,weunderstandthattheobjectiveoftheItaliangovernmentistoreducethedeficitto3percent,orbelow,bytheyear2013.Infact,Italybytheyear2013isgoingtobeprettyclosetoreachingthatobjectiveaccordingtoourforecast,closerthanmanyotherEuroAreaeconomies.Itwill,however,stillneedsomeadditionalmeasuresinordertoreachthatobjective,givenalsotherelativelysubduedgrowthratethatweareforecastingfor2011and2012ofjustbetween1and11/4percent.

Now,youaskedwhythatisthecase.Italyhasbeenstrugglingwithgrowthforawhile.Thegrowthratehasbeenrelativelylowforanextendedperiodnowandwetraceittostructuralrigiditiesintheeconomy.Onthatfront,wehavebeenpushingforpoliciestoimproveeducation,alsothewaythejusticeapparatusworks,localservices,andalsotoreformduallabormarkets;

thatistosay,labormarketsthatofferstrongprotectiontosomebutlessprotectiontoothers.

2.AboutJapaneseeconomy

IwanttoaskabouttheJapaneseeconomyandtheearthquakeandtsunamiissue.Youassumedthatthepowershortageandnuclearpowerplantaccidentwouldberesolvedinafewmonths,twoorthreemonths,butsomeexpertsworryaboutitcontinuingmuchmore,abouthalfayearormore.AreyouafraidthattheJapaneseeconomywouldbegrowingmoreslowly?

Secondly,Iwanttoaskaboutthesupplychainissue.Japaneseautomobile（partmakers）makepartsandsomeUScompaniesandothercompaniesdonotmakeproductsfully.Whatisyoura