人民币升值对我国纺织品服装出口的影响 外文文献1Word下载.docx

人民币升值对我国纺织品服装出口的影响 外文文献1Word下载.docx

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外文题目：

Tradeliberalizationandpatternsofstrategic

adjustmentintheUStextilesandclothingindustry

译文题目：

美国纺织品和服装产业的贸易自由化和战略调整模式

系：

经济系专业班级：

国际经济与贸易0893

姓名：

武智学号：

2008945088

论文题目：

人民币升值对我国纺织品服装出口的影响

指导老师：

杨杰职称：

讲师

Tradeliberalizationandpatternsofstrategic

adjustmentintheUStextilesandclothingindustry

BelaySeyoum

U.S.A.

TheoverallenvironmentfacingtheUSTCindustrywillbeoneofrapidlychangingmarketconditionsandtechnologicalinnovation.Withthephaseoutofquotasandgrowingnumberoftradeagreements,theUSTCindustryisbeingexposedtointensecompetitioninexportanddomesticmarkets.Thisislikelytoleaddomesticindustries/labortodemandinterventionbynationalgovernmentstomitigatetheadverseimpactoftradeliberalization.

Chineseleadershaveexpressedstrongoppositiontooutsidepressureontheircurrencypolicy,callingitaformofprotectionismandinterferenceinChina’sdomesticeconomicpolicy,andsomehaveevenquestionedwhetherthecurrencyisundervaluedatall.However,onJune19,2010,theChinesecentralbank,thePeople’sBankofChina（PBC）statedthat,basedoncurrenteconomicconditions,ithaddecidedto“proceedfurtherwithreformoftheRMBexchangerateregimeandtoenhancetheRMBexchangerateflexibility.”Itruledoutanylargeone-timerevaluations,stating“itisimportanttoavoidanysharpandmassivefluctuationsoftheRMBexchangerate,”inpartsothatChinesecorporationscouldmoreeasilyadjust（suchasthroughupgrading）toanappreciationofthecurrency.ManyobserverscontendthetimingoftheRMBannouncementwasintendedinparttopreventChina’scurrencypolicyfrombeingacentralfocusoftheG-20summitinTorontofromJune26-27,2010.

OnJune22,2010,theRMBappreciatedby0.43%againstthedollar（to6.80yuan）overthepreviousday,which,atthetime,wasthelargestdailyrisesincereformswereimplementedinJuly2005.However,onthefollowingday（June23）itdepreciatedto6.81yuan.AsindicatedinFigure3,theyuan’sexchangeratewiththedollarhasgoneupanddownoverthepastfewmonths,butoverall,ithasappreciatedby1.9%throughOctober1,2010,withmostofthatappreciationoccurringinSeptember.3SomeanalystscontendthattheappreciationofthecurrencyinSeptember2010hashadmoretodowithChineseconcernsoverpossiblecongressionalactiononthecurrencythaneconomicconsiderations.

Inspiteofthesubstantialjoblosses,theUSTCindustryremainstechnologicallyadvancedpartlyduetoincreasedproductivityresultingfromadvancesintechnologyanddesigncapabilities.Textileproductioniscapitalintensiveandmoderntechnologyisessentialtomeettheincreasingforhigh-qualityproducts.Overthelastfewyears,UStextilesandapparelfirmshavesubstantiallyincreasedtheirinvestmenttomaintainmodernmanufacturingfacilitiesaswellasimproveproductionandmarketingcapabilitiesinordertomaximizetheirinherentadvantagestomarketproximity.Inapparel,lowskillproductionjobshavemovedtolow-costlocationsoffshorewhilethemoreskilledoneshavebeenretained.Tosuccessfullyadapttothenewenvironment,USTCindustriesneedtocapitalizeontheirsourcesofcompetitiveadvantage.Theyneedtodevelopamoreflexibleoperationalarrangement,meethighstandardsinproductinnovationandgenerallydevelopamorechange-seekingbusinessculture（Kilduff,2005）.

AnimportantsurvivaltoolforUSTCfirmsistoexpandtheirpotentialmarketbyofferingnewproductdesignsandproductcategories.Manufacturersmusttrytobringasteadystreamofproductstomarketthatareinlinewiththetaste,preferencesoftheconsumer.Theycanalsoexpandtheirmarketpotentialbyofferingnewproductcategories.TwoofthefastestgrowingapparelsegmentsintheUS,forexample,havebeenthewomen’splusandmen’sbigandtallsegments（Driscoll,2004）.Plus-sizeapparelmarketingwasestimatedat$47billionin2005accountingfor20%oftotalapparelmarket.Itisimportanttoidentifythefirm’stargetcustomersandassesswhetherthefirmissuccessfullyaddressingtheirneeds.

USTCfirmsshouldtargetanarrowsegmentofthemarketthatprovidesthebestopportunityforsuccess.Intextiles,thefocusshouldbeonafewspecializedsegmentssuchascarpets,nonwovensandtechnicaltextiles.Similarly,apparelproducersshouldincreasetheirfocusoncoreproducts,reduceverticalintegrationtoshedoverheadcosts,andestablishallianceswithotherfirmstoconsolidateresourcesandincreasemarketshare.

Finally,inviewofrisingincomesandhighgrowthratesinmanydevelopingcountriessuchasChina,Brazil,andIndia,therearepotentialexportmarketopportunitiesforUStextileandapparelproducts.USexportinterestsmaybeservedbyseekingimprovedaccesstotheretaildistributionsystemsofdevelopingcountries.UStextilefirmsshouldalsobeabletouseMexicotoexporttotheEuropeanUnionandothercountries,takingadvantageoftheMexico-EUtradeagreement.SincetheconclusionofNAFTA,anumberofAsianandEuropeanfirmshaveproducedcertainproductsinMexicoinordertoexporttotheUSmarket.

Thispapersuggestsademandpullmodelasabasisfordevelopinganetworkstructureintheclothingindustry.Inademandpullmodel,consumerdemandisthedriverofsalesunlikethesupplypushmodelwherebythemanufacturerpushesgoodstotheretailerregardlessofconsumerdemand.

Retailcompanieshavebecomepowerfulduetotheirsufficientcapitalandmarketingexpertisetobuildloyaltyamongconsumers.Theyaretheleadfirminviewoftheircentralroleintheorganizationalnetwork.Theleadclothingretailerintegratesindustrialcapabilitiessuchassourcingoftextiles,design,productbrandinganditsrelationswithconsumersenablesittokeepabreastoffashionconsumptiontrends.

Theleadfirmconveysitsrequirementstothesechangingtrends（changesinstyle,materialrequirements）toitssuppliersorsubcontractors（Table7）.Italsoprovidesassistancewiththepurchasingofcapitalequipmentandtechnologynecessarytoproduceapparelinaccordancewithmarketdemand.Thefragmentedwebsofsuppliersandsubcontractorsareboundtogetherthroughinformationtechnology,onlinedatasharing,jointproductdevelopment,andcollaborativeforecasting,planningandreplenishmentactivities.Retailerswillholdlessinventoryasshipmentsbecomesmallerandmorefrequentsincepointofsaledataisdirectlytransmittedtothemanufacturer/supplierwhowillproduceandshipgarmentsasitisneeded.Thismodelshowstheroleoftheretailerasanintermediaryintegratingthefunctionsofdesign,textilesourcing,brandingandasfacilitatorofapparelproductionthroughawebofsuppliers/subcontractors.Suchrestructuringthroughtechnologicalimprovementsandinformationtechnologyisonemeansofsucceedinginanincreasinglycompetitiveenvironment.Thehorizontallystructured,massproductionmethodsnolongerensurefuturecompetitiveness.

Thelion’sshareofthebenefitsfromquotaeliminationisexpectedtoaccruetoChina.Itslowlaborcost,highproductivity,rangeandflexibilityofservicesaswellasefficientsuppliernetworkswillmakeChinathesupplierofchoice.About87%ofapparelexecutivesthatparticipatedinacottonsourcingsummitinMiamiinFebruary2004,agreedthatChinawillsoonaccountfor50–90%ofallapparelsoldintheUSmarket（NationalLaborCommittee,2004）.Thismeansrationalizationofproductionandamassiveconsolidationofvendors.OtherwinnersarelikelytoincludeIndiaandPakistaninnarrowsegmentsoftheTCindustry.TheeliminationofquotasisalsolikelytoleadtolowerpricesforconsumersinviewoftheabsenceofquotacostswhichisoftenasignificantpartofthecostofTCsoldintheUSmarket.Well-knownbrandsmaystillholdmarketvaluesincetheyarenotsubjecttoretailpricedeflation.ItisimportantforTCfirmstoevaluatetheirinternalcapabilitiessuchassourcing,manufacturing,logistics,transportationetc.inordertodevelopanactionplanforthepost-quotaworld.

ExportersfromLatinAmerica,AfricaandtheCaribbeanarelikelytolosemarketsharetoChinasincetheylargelycompeteonprice（notquality）andlackthecapabilitytoproducehighvalueaddedproducts.Evenwiththeintroductionofsafeguardsonarangeofproductsthatareofexportinteresttothesecountries,theirUSmarketsharehasdeclinedsincethephaseoutofquotas.Withthecompleteremovalofquotasin2008,itisdifficultforthesecountriestocompeteonprice.SincetheUSgovernmentliftedquotasin2002on29categories,forexample,China’smarketshare（inthesecategories）jumpedfromjust9%（2002）to65%（2003）whilepricespaidbyUSretailers（forapparelfromChina）droppedby48%（NationalLaborCommittee,2004）.Incottondressinggowns（quotasremoved）China’ssharein2003jumpedfrom25%to39%whilethatofCaribbeancountriesfellfrom13%toamere3%.Inthefirst12monthsafterthephaseoutofquotas,China’smarketshareinapparelroseby59%invaluewhilethatofmanyCentralandSouthAmericancountriesshowedasharpdecline.

WhataretheimplicationsforTCfirmsincountriesthatarevulnerabletocompetitionfromChina?

First,theyshouldcapitalizeontheirproximitytotheUSmarket.Theirabilitytoofferlowertransportcost,lowerleadtimesaswellasdutyfreeentrytotheUSmarketmayattractthefashion-orientedsegmentoftheUSindustry.Thiswilldependonaccesstogoodlocaltransportinfrastructuretogetgoodstomarketaswellasadvancedtelecommunicationssystemstolinksuppliersandcustomers.Localfirmsandg