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2.对于这种做法人们看法不一;
3.在我看来……
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PartIIReadingComprehension(SkimmingandScanning)(15minutes)
Directions:
Inthispart,youwillhave15minutestogooverthepassagequicklyandanswerthequestionsonAnswerSheet1.Forquestions1-7,choosethebestanswerfromthefourchoicesmarked[A],[B],[C]and[D].Forquestions8-10,completethesentenceswiththeinformationgiveninthepassage.
IntotheUnknown
Theworldhasneverseenpopulationageingbefore.Canitcope?
Untiltheearly1990snobodymuchthoughtaboutwholepopulationsgettingolder.TheUNhadtheforesighttoconvenea“worldassemblyonageing”backin1982,butthatcameandwent.By1994theWorldBankhadnoticedthatsomethingbigwashappening.Inareportentitled“AvertingtheOldAgeCrisis”,itarguedthatpensionarrangementsinmostcountrieswereunsustainable.
Forthenexttenyearsasuccessionofbooks,mainlybyAmericans,soundedthealarm.TheyhadtitleslikeYoungvsOld,GrayDawnandTheComingGenerationalStorm,andtheirmessagewasblunt:
health-caresystemswereheadingfortherocks,pensionersweretakingyoungpeopletothecleaners,andsoontherewouldbeintergenerationalwarfare.
Sincethenthedebatehasbecomelessemotional,notleastbecausealotmoreisknownaboutthesubject.Books,conferencesandresearchpapershavemultiplied.InternationalorganisationssuchastheOECDandtheEUissueregularreports.Populationageingisoneveryagenda,fromG8economicconferencestoNATOsummits.TheWorldEconomicForumplanstoconsiderthefutureofpensionsandhealthcareatitsprestigiousDavosconferenceearlynextyear.Themedia,includingthisnewspaper,aregivingthesubjectextensivecoverage.
Whetherallthatattentionhastranslatedintosufficientactionisanotherquestion.Governmentsinrichcountriesnowacceptthattheirpensionandhealth-carepromiseswillsoonbecomeunaffordable,andmanyofthemhaveembarkedonreforms,butsofaronlytimidly.Thatisnotsurprising:
politicianswithaneyeonthenextelectionwillhardlyrushtointroduceunpopularmeasuresthatmaynotbearfruitforyears,perhapsdecades.
Theoutlineofthechangesneededisclear.Toavoidfiscal(财政)meltdown,publicpensionsandhealth-careprovisionwillhavetobereinedbackseverelyandtaxesmayhavetogoup.Byfarthemosteffectivemethodtorestrainpensionspendingistogivepeopletheopportunitytoworklonger,becauseitincreasestaxrevenuesandreducesspendingonpensionsatthesametime.Itmayevenkeepthemalivelonger.JohnRother,theAARP’sheadofpolicyandstrategy,pointstostudiesshowingthatotherthingsbeingequal,peoplewhoremainatworkhavelowerdeathratesthantheirretiredpeers.
Youngerpeopletodaymostlyacceptthattheywillhavetoworkforlongerandthattheirpensionswillbelessgenerous.Employersstillneedtobepersuadedthatolderworkersareworthholdingonto.Thatmaybebecausetheyhavehadplentyofyoungeronestochoosefrom,partlythankstothepost-warbaby-boomandpartlybecauseoverthepastfewdecadesmanymorewomenhaveenteredthelabourforce,increasingemployers’choice.Butthereservoirofwomenableandwillingtotakeuppaidworkisrunninglow,andthebaby-boomersaregoinggrey.
Inmanycountriesimmigrantshavebeenfillingsuchgapsinthelabourforceashavealreadyemerged(andrememberthattherealshortageisstillaroundtenyearsoff).Immigrationinthedevelopedworldisthehighestithaseverbeen,anditismakingausefuldifference.Instill-fertileAmericaitcurrentlyaccountsforabout40%oftotalpopulationgrowth,andinfast-ageingwesternEuropeforabout90%.
Onthefaceofit,itseemstheperfectsolution.Manydevelopingcountrieshavelotsofyoungpeopleinneedofjobs;
manyrichcountriesneedhelpinghandsthatwillboosttaxrevenuesandkeepupeconomicgrowth.Butoverthenextfewdecadeslabourforcesinrichcountriesaresettoshrinksomuchthatinflowsofimmigrantswouldhavetoincreaseenormouslytocompensate:
toatleasttwicetheircurrentsizeinwesternEurope’smostyouthfulcountries,andthreetimesintheolderones.Japanwouldneedalargemultipleofthefewimmigrantsithasatpresent.Publicopinionpollsshowthatpeopleinmostrichcountriesalreadythinkthatimmigrationistoohigh.Furtherbigincreaseswouldbepoliticallyunfeasible.
Totackletheproblemofageingpopulationsatitsroot,“old”countrieswouldhavetorejuvenate(使年轻)themselvesbyhavingmoreoftheirownchildren.Anumberofthemhavetried,somemoresuccessfullythanothers.Butitisnotasimplematterofofferingfinancialincentivesorprovidingmorechildcare.Modernurbanlifeinrichcountriesisnotwelladaptedtolargefamilies.Womenfindithardtocombinefamilyandcareer.Theyoftencompromisebyhavingjustonechild.
Andiffertilityinageingcountriesdoesnotpickup?
Itwillnotbetheendoftheworld,atleastnotforquiteawhileyet,buttheworldwillslowlybecomeadifferentplace.Oldersocietiesmaybelessinnovativeandmorestronglydisinclinedtotakerisksthanyoungerones.By2025atthelatest,abouthalfthevotersinAmericaandmostofthoseinwesternEuropeancountrieswillbeover50—andolderpeopleturnouttovoteinmuchgreaternumberthanyoungerones.Academicstudieshavefoundnoevidencesofarthatoldervotershaveusedtheirpowerattheballotboxtopushforpoliciesthatspecificallybenefitthem,thoughifinfuturetherearemanymoreofthemtheymightstartdoingso.
Noristhereanysignoftheintergenerationalwarfarepredictedinthe1990s.Afterall,olderpeoplethemselvesmostlyhavefamilies.Inarecentstudyofparentsandgrown-upchildrenin11Europeancountries,KarstenHankofMannheimUniversityfoundthat85%ofthemlivedwithin25kmofeachotherandthemajorityofthemwereintouchatleastonceaweek.
Evenso,theshiftinthecentreofgravitytoolderagegroupsisboundtohaveaprofoundeffectonsocieties,notjusteconomicallyandpoliticallybutinallsortsofotherwaystoo.RichardJacksonandNeilHoweofAmerica’sCSIS,inathoughtfulbookcalledTheGrayingoftheGreatPowers,arguethat,amongotherthings,theageingofthedevelopedcountrieswillhaveanumberofserioussecurityimplications.
Forexample,theshortageofyoungadultsislikelytomakecountriesmorereluctanttocommitthefewtheyhavetomilitaryservice.Inthedecadesto2050,Americawillfinditselfplayinganever-increasingroleinthedevelopedworld’sdefenceeffort.BecauseAmerica’spopulationwillstillbegrowingwhenthatofmostotherdevelopedcountriesisshrinking,Americawillbetheonlydevelopedcountrythatstillmattersgeopolitically(地缘政治上).
Askmein2020
Thereislittlethatcanbedonetostoppopulationageing,sotheworldwillhavetolivewithit.Butsomeoftheconsequencescanbealleviated.Manyexpertsnowbelievethatgiventherightpolicies,theeffects,thoughgrave,neednotbecatastrophic.Mostcountrieshaverecognisedtheneedtodosomethingandarebeginningtoact.
Buteventhenthereisnoguaranteethattheireffortswillwork.Whatishappeningnowishistoricallyunprecedented.RonaldLee,directoroftheCentreontheEconomicsandDemographyofAgeingattheUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley,putsitbrieflyandclearly:
“Wedon’treallyknowwhatpopulationageingwillbelike,becausenobodyhasdoneityet.“
注意:
此部分试题请在答题卡1上作答。
1.Inits1994report,theWorldBankarguedthatthecurrentpensionsysteminmostcountriescould______.
[A]notbesustainedinthelongterm
[B]furtheracceleratetheageingprocess
[C]hardlyhaltthegrowthofpopulation
[D]helptideoverthecurrentageingcrisis
2.WhatmessageisconveyedinbookslikeYoungvsOld?
[A]Thegenerationgapisboundtonarrow.
[B]Intergenerationalconflictswillintensify.
[C]Theyoungergenerationwillbeattheold.
[D]Oldpeopleshouldgivewaytotheyoung.
3.Onereasonwhypensionandhealthcarereformsareslowincomingisthat______.
[A]nobodyiswillingtosacrificetheirownintereststotackletheproblem
[B]mostpeopleareagainstmeasuresthatwillnotbearfruitimmediately
[C]theproposedreformswillaffecttoomanypeople’sinterests
[D]politiciansareafraidoflosingvotesinthenextelection
4.Theauthorbelievesthemosteffectivemethodtosolvethepensioncrisisisto______.
[A]allowpeopletoworklonger[C]cutbackonhealthcareprovisions
[B]increasetaxrevenues[D]startreformsrightaway
5.Thereasonwhyemployersareunwillingtokeepolderworkersisthat______.
[A]theyaregenerallydifficulttomanage
[B]thelongertheywork,thehighertheirpension
[C]theirpayishigherthanthatofyoungerones
[D]youngerworkersarereadilyavailable
6.Tocompensateforthefast-shrinkinglabourforce,Japanwouldneed______.
[A]toreviseitscurrentpopulationcontrolpolicy
[B]largenumbersofimmigrantsfromoverseas
[C]toautomateitsmanufacturingandserviceindustries
[D]apoliticallyfeasiblepolicyconcerningpopulation
7.Whydomanywomeninrichcountriescompromisebyhavingonlyonechild?
[A]Smallfamiliesarebecomingmorefashionab