香港第三次整体交通规划英文.docx
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香港第三次整体交通规划英文
1.INTRODUCTION
1.1Inthepast10years(1988-98),HongKong'spopulationhasincreasedfrom5.7millionto6.8millionandGDPpercapitahasincreasedby20%inrealterms.Thissocio-economicgrowth,togetherwiththerapidexpansionofHongKong'sportandairportfacilitiesandincreaseincrossboundarytraffic,haveplacedtremendousdemandsontransportinfrastructure.Despitethis,transportsystemsofHongKonghavecopedremarkablywellwithsuchdemands.Themajorityofthepopulationenjoyhighlevelsofmobilityandtrafficspeedsinmostareasareatacceptablelevels.
1.2Thissuccesshasbeenachievedthroughimprovingtransportinfrastructure,expandingandimprovingpublictransport,andmanagingroaduse.Theseprinciples,coupledwithproperland-useplanning,haveformedthefoundationofHongKong'stransportpolicyandhavebeenappliedinresponsetochangingopportunitiesandconstraints.TheFirstandSecondComprehensiveTransportStudies,completedin1976and1989respectively,haveformedthebackboneofHongKong'stransportinfrastructureandpolicydevelopment.
1.3However,HongKongisadynamiccity,withcontinuouschangesineconomicgrowthanddevelopment,technology,publicdemandsandaspirations.Populationisforecasttocontinuegrowingatafastpaceandcrossboundaryactivityisalsoexpectedtoincrease.ThesedevelopmentswillcontinuetoplacefurtherpressureonHongKong'stransportinfrastructure.Ifmobilityistobemaintained,thesedemandsneedtobeaccommodatedinsomeway.However,newinfrastructureisbecomingincreasinglyexpensiveanddifficulttoconstructinHongKong'suniquegeographicsituation.
1.4Recentyearshaveseengreaterpublicawarenessandconcernoverthedeterioratingenvironmentalconditions,whichhaveaccompaniedthegrowthoverthepastdecade.Althoughtransportisonlyoneofthecontributingfactorsofenvironmentalpollution,thereisanincreasingneedfortransportpolicyandplanningtobetterreflectthisconcern.
1.5Asaresult,theThirdComprehensiveTransportStudy(CTS-3)wascommissionedinAugust1997,withtheobjectiveofformulatingatransportdevelopmentframeworkthatwouldcontributetomoresustainabledevelopmentinHongKong.Inthetransportcontext,thisobjectiverequiresthebalancingofasystemthatmaintainsandimprovesmobilitywiththeadverseimpactsthiscanhaveontheenvironment,andallowscontinuedeconomicandsocialdevelopment.Byemphasisingtheuseofpublictransport,inparticularrailway,enhancingtheintegrationofdifferenttransportmodes,andmakinguseofnewtechnologies,aframeworkhasbeendevelopedthatprovidesmobilityinasustainabledevelopmentcontext.
Providingmobilityinasustainabledevelopmentcontext
1.6AswithpreviousCTSstudies,CTS-3hasdevelopedtransportpoliciestogetherwithasetofinfrastructurerequirementsandassociatedprogrammesforimplementation.Inaddition,CTS-3hasrecommendedtodevelopareviewsystemtoensurethattheneed,timing,scopeandprioritiesoftherelevanthighwayprojectsarere-assessedbeforeimplementationinlightofthelatestdevelopment.
2.BACKGROUNDTOCTS-3
DevelopmentssinceCTS-2
2.1CTS-3isthethirdcomprehensivetransportstudy.Thefirststudy,whichwascompletedin1976,resultedinthedecisiontoconstructtheMTRsystemandtherealisationthatitwouldbenecessarytorestrainprivatecartravel.In1986-89,theSecondComprehensiveTransportStudy(CTS-2)formulatedatransportframeworkfortheterritoryuptotheyear2001forapopulationforecastof6.3million.Inviewoftheconsiderableuncertaintiesoftransportplanningatthetime,inparticularthefuturelocationoftheterritory'sairport,thestudyrecommendedthattheimplementationofthestrategyshouldbemonitoredandupdatedonaregularbasis.Accordingly,from1990to1993,theUpdatingoftheSecondComprehensiveTransportStudy(CTS-2Update)wasundertakentoreviewtheCTS-2frameworktakingintoaccounttherelocationoftheairporttoChekLapKok,Metroplan,andvariousreclamationstudies.Theplanninghorizonwasalsoextendedto2011forapopulationforecastof6.6million.
2.2CTS-2wasakeystudyinthedevelopmentofHongKong'stransportpolicyandsystems.Itsrecommendationsformedthebasisofthe1990WhitePaper"Movingintothe21stCentury".ManyoftheroadandrailinfrastructurerecommendationsoftheWhitePaperhavenowbeenimplemented,asshowninTable2.1.Thebroadpolicydirectionshavealsobeengenerallymaintained.
Table2.1
ProgressonMajorInfrastructure
Recommendationsof1990WhitePaper
Recommendation
Progress
HighwayProjects
NorthLantauExpresswayandLantauFixedCrossing
Route9fromTsingYitoChekLapKokcompletedandopentotrafficin1997.
Route3toprovideamajornorth-southlinkbetweentheboundaryandHongKongIsland
Completedandopentotrafficinphasesbetween1997and1998.
HungHomBypass
Openedin1999.
Route7KennedyTowntoAberdeen
Landunavailable–plannedcompletiondate2010.
Central–WanChaiBypassandIslandEasternCorridorLink
Landunavailable–plannedcompletiondate2010.
Route16betweenShaTinandWestKowloon
NowpartofRoute9.Detaileddesigncurrentlyinprogresswithconstructionexpectedtobecompletedby2005.
RailwayProjects
AirportRailway/TungChungLine
Completedin1998.
MTRTseungKwanOExtension
Underconstruction,duetobecompletedin2002.
WestRail(PhaseI)connectingNWNTandTsuenWan
Underconstruction,duetobecompletedin2003.
2.3CTS-2andthesubsequent1990WhitePaperlaidoutbroadtransportpolicydirectionswhichhavehelpedkeepHongKongmoving.However,HongKonghasdevelopedmorerapidlythanwasenvisagedinCTS-2.Forexample,thepopulationforecastfor2001atthetimeofCTS-2was6.3million.Thisfigurewasactuallyreachedin1996andtheforecastfor2001isnowcloseto7million.TheupperlimitofpopulationtestedduringCTS-3is10.1millionin2016.Toplanforahigherpopulation,severalmajorplanningstudieshavebeencarriedoutinrecentyears.ThemostimportantoftheseistheTerritorialDevelopmentStrategyReview(TDSR),whichwascompletedin1996.OtherkeystudiesincludetheFirstandSecondRailwayDevelopmentStudies(RDS),andtheCrosslinksFurtherStudy1.
(Note:
1.TheStudyisformallyknownasFeasibilityStudyforAdditionalCross-borderLinks)
2.4Tocopewiththesechangesinourfuturedevelopment,weneedacomprehensivetransportstudytohelpproduceacohesiveandcomprehensivetransportplan.CTS-3extendstheplanninghorizonto2016,takingintoaccountawiderrangeofconsiderationstomeetthechangingaspirationsofsociety,especiallytheeffectoftransportontheenvironmentandtheneedtointegrateland-use,transportandenvironmentalplanning.Itaimstoproduceaframeworkfordevelopingastrategythatnotonlymeetsthetraditionalobjectiveofmaintainingmobilitybutdoessoinanenvironmentallyacceptableandsustainableway.
ExistingSituation
2.5CTS-3adopted1997asthebaseyeartowhichfutureconditionsarecompared.Despiterapiddevelopment,average1997trafficspeedsarecomparabletothose10yearsago(about26-30km/hinheavilyurbanisedareasand32km/helsewhereinthepeakhour),testimonytothesuccessofHongKong'stransportplanningandanexpandinginfrastructureprogramme.Furthermore,therehavebeenconsiderableimprovementstopublictransportservices,includingamorecomprehensiverailwaynetworkandprovisionofparkingatrailwaystations.(Publictransportisestimatedtocarryaround90%ofallpersontripsin1997.Thenumberofobservedpublictransportboardingsisabout11millionperday).However,duetothelackofprogressonsomeoftheprojectsrecommendedbyCTS-2,andbecauseoffasterthanexpectedpopulationandeconomicgrowth,someareassufferfromseverecongestion(e.g.Central,WanChai,CausewayBay,LionRockTunnelandtheCrossHarbourTunnel).SectionsoftheMTRsystemalsosufferfromovercrowdingatpeaktimes(e.g.alongtheNathanRoadCorridorbeforeopeningofTungChungLinein1998).
AssumptionsandForecasts
2.6ThedemandfortransportservicesiscloselyrelatedtoHongKong'sdevelopmentpattern.Asdevelopmenttypesorintensitieschange,transportsystemimprovementsmaybeneededtobetterlinkareasofgrowthwiththeremainderoftheregion.CTS-3usesestimationproceduresrefinedfromCTS-2anditsUpdatethatdeterminepassengerandgoodstraveldemandsbasedonthedistributionofdevelopmenttypesandintensitieswithintheregion,takingintoconsiderationthechangedtripmakingbehaviourobservedinthecourseofvalidationofthetransportmodelagainst1997trafficconditions.
2.7Thefutureisdrivenbytoomanyvariablestobeaccuratelypredicted.Itisdifficulttoforeseeeventsthatwilloccurorconditionsthatwillexistin15-20yearstime.CTS-3hasthereforeadoptedanapproachdifferentfromCTS-2.Insteadofrelyingonhistoricaltrends,CTS-3examinedawiderangeofdevelopmentscenariosincorporatingassumptionsdefiningthekeydeterminantsoffuturetraveldemand.Thevalueofusingdifferentscenariosisthecontrastingpicturestheypaintandthediverseimplicationstheysuggest.Theintentionwastoaddressanenvelopeofassumptionsandidentifyalternative(relatedtolow,mediumandhightraveldemandgrowth)combinationsofinfrastructureinvestmentsanddemandmanagementpolicies.AsHongKongmovesforward,andlevelsofeconomicandotherdevelopmentsarebetterdetermined,Governmentcanusethescenariosandpackagestobuildarobustandflexiblestrategythatbestmeetstransportmobility,economic,