比尔盖茨谈能源TED字幕Word文件下载.docx

比尔盖茨谈能源TED字幕Word文件下载.docx

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Butenergyandclimateareextremelyimportanttothesepeople,infact,moreimportantthananyoneelseontheplanet.Theclimategettingworsemeansthatmanyyearsthatmanyyears,theircropswon’tgrow.Therewillbetoomuchrain,notenoughrain,thingswillchangeinwaysthattheirfragileenvironmentsimplycan’tsupport.Andthatleadstostarvation,itleadstouncertainty,itleadstounrest.So,thepriceofenergyisveryimportanttothem.Infact,ifyoucouldpickjustonethingtolowerth-epriceof,toreducepoverty,byfaryouwouldpickenergy.Now,thepriceofenergyhasbecomedownovertime.Reallyadvancedcivilizationisbasedonadvancesinenergy.

ThecoalrevolutionfueledtheIndustrialRevolution,and,evenin1990swe’veseenaveryrapiddeclineinthepriceofelectricity,andthat’swhywehaverefrigerators,air-conditioning,wecanmakemodernmaterialsanddosomanythings.Andso,we’reinawonderfulsituationwithelectricityintherichworld.But,aswemakeitcheaper-andlet’sgoformakingittwiceascheap-weneedtomeetanewconstrain,andthatconstrainhastodowithCO2.CO2iswarningtheplanet,andtheequationonCO2isactuallyaverystraightforwardone.IfyousumuptheCO2thatgetsemitted,thatleadstoatemperatureincrease,andthattemperatureincreaseleadstosomeverynegativeeffects:

theeffectsontheweather,perhapsworse,theindirecteffects,inthatthenatureecosystemscan’tadjusttotheserapidchanges,andsoyougetecosystemcollapses.

Now,theexactamountofhowyoumapfromacertainincreaseofCO2towhattemperaturewillbeandwherethepositivefeedbackare,there’ssomeuncertaintythere,butnotverymuch.Andthere’scertainlyuncertaintyabouthowbadthoseeffectswillbe,buttheywillbeextremelybad.Iaskedthetopscientistsonthisseveraltimes.Dowereallyhavetogetdowntonearzero?

Can’twejustcutitinhalforaquarter?

Andtheansweristhatuntilwegetneartozero,thetemperaturewillcontinuetorise.Andsothat’sabigchallenge.It’sverydifferentthansaying“We’reatwelve-foot-hightrucktryingtogetunderaten-footbridge,andwecanjustsortofsqueezeunder.”Thisissomethingthathastogettozero.Now,weputoutofalotofcarbondioxideeveryyear,over26billiontons.ForeachAmerican,it’sabout20tons;

forpeopleinpoorcountries,it’slessthanoneton.It’sanaverageofaboutfivetonsforeveryoneontheplanet.

And,somehow,wehavetomakechangesthatwillbringthatdowntozero.It’sbeenconstantlygoingup.It’sonlyvariouseconomicchangesthathavebeenflatteneditatall,sowehavetogofromrapidrisingtofalling,andfallingallthewaytozero.Thisequationhasfourfactors,alittlebitofmultiplication:

So,you’regotathingontheleft,CO2,thatyouwanttogettozero,andthat’sgoingtobebasedonthenumberofpeople,theserviceseachperson’susingonaverage,theenergyonaverageforeachservice,andtheCO2beingputoutperunitofenergy.So,let’slookateachoneoftheseandseehowwegetthisdowntozero.Probably,oneofthisnumberisgoingtohavetogetprettyneartozero.Nowthat’sbackfromhighschoolalgebra,butlet’stakealook.First,we’vegotpopulation.Theworldtodayhas6.8billionpeople.That’sheadeduptoaboutninebillion.Now,ifwedoareallygreatjobonnewvaccines,healthcare,reproductivehealthservices,wecouldlowerthatby,perhaps,10or15percent,butthereweseeanincreaseofabout1.3.Thesecondfactoristheservicesweuse.Thisencompasseverything:

thefootweeat,clothing,TV,heating.Theseareverygoodthings:

gettingridofpovertymeansprovidingtheseservicestoalmosteveryoneontheplanet.Andit’sagreatthingforthisnumbertogoup.Intherichworld,perhapsthetoponebillion,weprobablycouldcutbackanduseless,buteveryyear,thisnumer,onaverage,isgoingtogoup,andso,overall,thatwillmorethandouble,theservicesdeliveredperperson.

Herewehaveaverybasicservice:

Doyouhavelightinginyourhousetobeabletoreadyourhomework?

And,infact,thesekidsdon’t,sothey’regoingoutandreadingtheirschoolworkunderthestreetlamps.Now,efficiency,E,theenergyforeachservice,herefinallywehavesomegoodnews.Wehavesomethingthat’snotgoingup.Throughvariousinventionsandnewwaysofdoinglightingthroughdifferenttypesofcar,differentwaysofbuilding--therearealotofserviceswhereyoucanbringtheenergyforthatservicedownquitesubstantially.Thereareotherserviceslikehowwemakefertilizer,orhowwedoairtransport,wheretheroomsforimprovementarefar,farless.Andso,overallhere,ifwe’reoptimistic,wemaygetareductionofafactorofthreetoeven,perhaps,afactorofsix.

Butforthesefirstthreefactorsnow,we’vegonefrom26billionto,atbest,may13billiontons,andthatjustwon’tcutit.Solet’slookatthisfourthfactor-thisisgoingtobeakeyone-andthisistheamountofCO2putoutpereachunitofenergy.Andsothequestionis:

canyouactuallygetthattozero?

Ifyouburncoal,no.Ifyouburnnaturalgas,no.Almosteverywaymakeelectricitytoday,exceptfortheemergingrenewablesandnuclear,putsoutCO2.Andso,whatwe’regoingtohavetodoataglobalscale,iscreateanewsystem.

Andso,weneedenergymiracles.Now,whenIusetheterm“miracle,”Idon’tmeansomethingthat’simpossible.Themicroprocessorisamiracle.Thepersonalcomputerisamiracle.TheInternetanditsservicesaremiracles.So,thepeopleherehaveparticipatedinthecreationofmanymiracles.Usually,wedon’thaveadeadline,whereyouhavetogetthemiraclebyacertaindate.Usually,youjustkindofstandbyandsomecomealong.Thisisacasewhereweactuallyhavetodriveatfullspeedandgetamiracleinaprettytighttimeline.

NowIthought,“howcouldIreallycapturethis?

Istheresomekindofnaturalillustration,somedemonstrationthatwouldgrabpeople’simaginationhere?

”IthoughtbacktoayearagowhenIbroughtmosquitos,andsomehowpeopleenjoyedthat.Itreallygottheminvolvedintheidealof,youknow,therearepeoplewholivewithmosquitos.So,withenergy,allIcouldcomeupwithisthis.Idecidedthatreleasingfireflieswouldbemycontributiontotheenvironmentherethisyear.Soherewehavesomenaturalfireflies.I’mtoldtheydon’tbite,infact,theymightnotevenleavethatjar.Now,thereallsortsofgimmickysolutionslikethatone,buttheydon’treallyadduptomuch.Weneedsolutions-eitheroneorseveral-thathaveunbelievablescaleandunbelievablereliability,and,althoughthere’smanydirectionspeopleareseeking,Ireallyonlyseefivethatcanachievethebignumbers.I’veleftouttide,geothermal,fusion,biofuels.Thosemaymakesomecontribution,andiftheycandobetterthanIexpect,somuchthebetter,butmykeypointhereisthatwe’vegoingtohavetoworkoneachofthesefive,andwecan’tgiveupanyofthembecausetheylookdaunting,becausetheyallhavesignificantchallenges.Let’slookfirstattheburningfossilfuels,eitherburningcoalorburningnaturalgas.Whatyouneedtodothere,seemslikeitmightbesimple,butit’snot,andthat’stotakealltheCO2,afteryou’veburnedit,goingouttheflue,pressurizeit,createaliquid,putitsomewhere,andhopeitstaysthere.Nowwehavesomepilotthingsthatdothisatthe60to80percentlevel,butgettingtothatfullpercentage,thatwillbeverytricky,andagreeingonwheretheseCO2quantitiesshouldbeputwillbehard,butthetoughestonehereisthislong-termissue.Who’sgoingtobesure?

Who’sgoingtoguaranteesomethingthatisliterallybillionsoftimelargethananytypeofofwastedyouthinkofintermsofnuclearorotherthings?

Thisisalotofvolume.Sothat’satoughone.

Nextwouldbenuclear.Italsohasthreebigproblems:

Cost,particularlyinhighlyregulatedcountries,ishigh,theissueofthethesafety,reallyfeelinggoodaboutnothingcouldgowrong,that,eventhoughyouhavethesehumanoperators,thatthefueldoesn’tgetusedforweapons.Andthenwhatdoyoudowiththewaste?

And,althoughit’snotverylarge,therearealotofconcernsaboutthat.Peopleneedtofeelgoodaboutit.Sothreeverytoughproblemsthatmightbesolvable,andso,shouldbeworkedon.Thelastthreeofthefive,I’vegroupedtogether.Thesearewhatpeopleoftenrefertoastherenewable.Andtheyactually--althoughit’sgreattheydon’trequirefuel-theyhavesomedisadvantages.Oneofthatthedensityofenergygatheredinthesetechnologiesisdramaticallylessthanapowerplan.Thisisenergyfarming,soyou’retalkingaboutmanysquaremiles,thousandsoftimemoreareathanyouthinkofasanormalenergyplant.Also,theseareintermittentsources.Thesundoesn’tshineallday,itdoesn’tshineeveryday,and,likewise,thewinddoesn’tblowallthetime.Andalso,ifyoudependonthesesources,youhavetohavesomewayofgettingtheenergyduringthosetimeperiodthat’sit’snotaavailable.So,we’vegotbigcostchallengeshere,wehavetransmissionchallenges:

forexample,saythisenergysourceisoutsideyourcountry;

younotonlyneedthetechnology,butyouhavetodealwiththeriskoftheenergycomingfromelsewhere.Andfinally,thisstorageproblem.And,todimensionalizethis,Iwentthroughandlookedatalltypesofbatteriesthatgetmade--forcars,forcomputers,forphones,forflashlights,foreverything--andcomparedthattotheamountof