拉丁美洲的背景和白色的党派的选择社会的分工Word文档格式.docx

拉丁美洲的背景和白色的党派的选择社会的分工Word文档格式.docx

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ZoltanHajnal,UniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego

MarisaAbrajano,UniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego

Abstract

ImmigrationisprofoundlychangingtheracialmakeupofAmerica.Inthisarticle,weseektounderstandifandhowalargerLatinopopulationimpactsthepoliticsofindividualwhiteAmericans.WeshowthatstateLatinocontexthasbroadeffectsonthecorepoliticalidentitiesandvotechoicesofwhiteAmericans.Usinggeographicallydiversesamplesfromthe2000and2004NationalAnnenbergElectionStudies,wefindthat,allelseequal,whitesinstateswithlargerLatinoarelessapttoidentifyasDemocratsandlesslikelytofavorDemocraticcandidates.ThisrightwardshiftharkensbacktoanearlierperiodofwhitedefectionfromtheDemocraticPartyandhighlightstheenduringbutshiftingimpactofraceonAmericanpolitics.

ZoltanHajnalandMarisaAbrajanocanbereachedattheDepartmentofPoliticalScience,UCSD,LaJolla,CA92093-0521.PleasedirectallcorrespondencetoZoltanHajnalzhajnal@ucsd.edu.（858）822-5015.MarisaAbrajanoisat（858）534-7201mabrajano@ucsd.eduTheauthorswishtothankNicholasWarnerforhisexemplaryresearchassistanceandJamesGimpel,RodneyHero,andDavidLealfortheirthoughtfulcomments.

AttitudestowardAfricanAmericanshaveattimesbeenacentralelementinthepoliticalcalculusofwhiteAmericans（KingandSmith2011,ValentinoandSears2005）.InthewakeoftheCivilRightsMovement,theDemocraticParty’sembraceofcorecivilrightslegislation,andtheRepublicanParty’sSouthernStrategy,hugenumbersofwhitesdefectedtotheRepublicanParty（CarminesandStimson1989,EdsallandEdsall1991butseeAbramowitz1994andShaferandJohnston2005）.Morebroadly,anynumberofdifferentaspectsofwhitepoliticalbehaviorwerelinkedtothesizeandstrengthoftheblackcommunity（Key1949）.Alargerblackcommunitywasassociatedwithgreateroppositiontopro-blackcandidates,moreoppositiontopoliciesthatmightbenefitblacks,morenegativeviewsofblacks,andevengreaterracialviolence（BlackandBlack1973,FossetandKiecolt1989,Corzineetal1983）.

Immigrationhas,however,dramaticallyalteredtheracialmakeupofthenationsincethosedays.Latinosnowfaroutnumberblacks.Inlightofthischange,weassesswhetherLatinoshavebeguntoreplaceblacksinthepartisanthinkingofwhiteAmericans.Specifically,welookattheinterfacebetweenracialcontextandwhitepartisanshiptoday.DowhiteswholiveinstateswithlargerandorfastergrowingLatinopopulationstendtobemorecloselylinkedtotheRepublicanParty?

Ourresultsindicatethatracialcontextdoeshavebroadrangingeffectsonwhitepartyidentificationandvotechoice.WhiteswholiveinstateswithlargerLatinoandblackpopulationsaresignificantlylessapttoidentifyasDemocratsandsubstantiallymorelikelytosupportRepublicancandidates.ThiseffectisespeciallypronouncedamongwhiteAmericanswithconservativeviews.TheoverallpatternindicatesthatraceandracialcontextcontinuetoplayacentralroleinthepoliticalcalculationsofAmerica’swhitepopulation.

LatinoContext

Weare,bynomeans,thefirsttoexamineLatinocontext.AmongthestudiesthatexaminetheeffectsofLatino（orimmigrant）contextonwhiteattitudes,thebulkfindthatLatinoscanrepresentathreatthatleadstonegativewhitereactions（Ha2010,Campbelletal2006,Steinetal2000）.Thereare,however,someimportantexceptionswhichdemonstratelittletonolinkbetweenLatinocontextandwhiteviews（Dixon2006,Taylor1998,BurnsandGimpel2000）.

Oneoverlookedbutneverthelesscriticallimitationoftheseexistingstudiesistheirrelativelynarrowfocus.Almosteverystudythathasfocusedonthecontextualimpactofminoritieshaslimiteditspurviewtominorityspecificoutcomes（butseeHopkins2009,HeroandPreuhs2007,Hero1998）.Theystudyhowcontextaffectsattitudestowardminorities,violencetowardminorities,minorityspecificpolicies,orviolencetowardminorities.WecontendthattheeffectsofLatinocontextcouldreachmuchmorebroadly.

ALinktoWhitePartisanPolitics?

WhyshouldweexpectthereachofLatinocontexttoextendtocorepoliticalidentitieslikepartyidentificationandbasicdecisionsaboutwhichcandidatetosupportinnationalelections?

First,themagnitudeofthegrowthoftheLatinopopulationmakesitimpossibleforwhiteAmericanstomiss.OnlyfivedecadesagotheCensusdidnotrecordthesizeoftheHispanicpopulation.TodayLatinosrepresentover15percentofthepopulationandarenowclearlythelargestminoritygroup.Latinosarehighlyvisibleinthemediaandinthenation’sstreets,workplaces,andneighborhoods.Inmanyways,itwouldbesurprisingifsuchamassivechangeinthemakeupofthenationdidnotresultinLatinosplayingamorecentralroleinthemindsofwhiteAmericans.

Second,irrespectiveoftheactualconsequencesofLatinopopulationgrowth,thereisanon-goingandoftrepeatedthreatnarrativethatlinksAmerica’sLatinoandimmigrantpopulationswithahostofperniciousfiscal,social,andculturalconsequences（Chavez2008）.ThisnarrativeemphasizesLatino’suseofwelfare,health,andeducationalservices,theirpropensitytoturntocrime,theirtendencytodisplacenativecitizensfromjobs,andtheirculturaldissimilarity（Borjas2001,GimpelandSkerry2008,Huntington2005）.Thereisalsoavisibleandpotentiallyalarmingpoliticalthreatinthenarrativeofthe‘sleepingLatinogiant.’ManywhiteAmericanssurelyhavenoticedtheincreasingsizeoftheLatinovote（itgrewby64percentbetween2000and2008）anddramaticincreasesinthenumberofLatinoelectedofficials（fromalmostnonetoover5,000nationwideinthepast40years）（NALEO2008）.Eachoftheseconcernshasbeenspelledoutrepeatedlyandingreatdetailinthemedia,inthepoliticalsphere,andinscholarlyoutlets（Chavez2008）.

Moreover,althoughmanyinsideandoutsideofthepoliticalarenadisputethethreatnarrative,itappearsthatthenarrativehasbeenabsorbedbyasignificantsegmentofthewhitepopulation.AcrossthewhitepopulationattitudesonLatinosandimmigrationarediverse,butthereislittledoubtthatmanywhiteAmericanshaveexpressedrealconcernsaboutimmigrationandholdnegativeattitudestowardLatinos.RecentpollssuggestthatwelloverhalfofwhiteAmericansfeelthatimmigrantsareaburdenonthenation,aslightmajoritythinktheyaddtothecrimeproblem,andabouthalfbelievetheytakejobsawayfromAmericans（CNN2010）.ViewsofLatinos,whileundoubtedlymixed,canalsobequitenegative.Justunder70percentofwhiteAmericansbelievethatLatinosarepronetobeonwelfareandlargenumbersofwhiteAmericanstendtoviewLatinosaslessintelligentandmoreviolent（Bobo2001）.Formany,thechangesthatareoccurringinAmericarepresentarealthreat.

CriticallythegrowingattentiontoandthreatfromtheLatinopopulationhasbeeninfusedintothepartisanpoliticsofthenationintwoimportantways.First,therapidgrowthoftheLatinopopulationandtheDemocratictendenciesofLatinovotershavedramaticallyalteredtheracialgroupmembershipandimageryoftheDemocraticParty.TheDemocraticPartywasoncealmostexclusivelythedomainofwhitesbutgrowingminorityattachmenttotheDemocraticParty–fueledinrecentdecadesbygrowthinLatinoDemocraticidentifiers–hasgreatlyalteredthatequation.Today,accordingtotheANES,over40percentofDemocraticidentifiersareracialandethnicminorities–almosthalfofwhichareLatinos.Bycontrast,92percentofRepublicanidentifiersarenon-Hispanicwhites.ItwouldbehardnottonoticethattheDemocraticPartyhasbecomethepartyofminoritiesandLatinoswhiletheRepublicanPartyhasnot.Finally,whenRepublicanandDemocraticleaderstakedivergentstancesonimmigrationandotherissuesofparticularrelevancetotheLatinocommunityandinparticularwhenRepublicansstandmorestronglyagainstimmigration,thetwopartiespresentindividualwhiteAmericanswithacompellingpartisanlogic.Ultimately,forthosewhoareconcernedaboutthegrowingLatinopopulation,thereisapowerfulmotivationtochoosetheRepublicanParty.

WhyGeographicContext?

OneofthemostinescapablefeaturesofAmerica’sracialtransformationisitsgeographicallyunevennature.SomeAmericansliveinareaswherethereislittleevidenceofimmigrationandracialdiversityandothersliveinneighborhoods,cities,andstates,thathavebeendramaticallyre-shaped.Thatuneventransformationmeansthatanyperceivedthreatposedbyagrowingminoritypopulationwilllikelyvaryacrossdifferentgeographiccontexts

Anynumberofdifferentfactorsislikelytoundergirdthisrelationship.AhigherconcentrationofLatinosoftenmeansthatLatinosaremorevisibleinthelocalpoliticalsphereandthereforemoreofapotentialthreattowhitepowerandresources.Weknow,forexample,thattheelectionofLatinostoofficeiscloselycorrelatedwithLatinopopulationsize（Casellas2011,Hajnal2010）.Similarly,inplaceswhereLatinosliveinlargernumbers,politicalcampaignsappeartobemoreapttofocusonLatinorelatedissues.ThedegreetowhichlocalgovernmentsraiseanddealwithimmigrationandotherLatinorelatedissuesiscorrelatedwiththesizeofthelocalLatinopopulation（Varsanyi2010）.Inparticular,growthintheLatinoshareofcitieshasbeentiedtothepassageofrestrictionist,anti-immigrantmeasures（RamakrishnanandWong2010）.Equallyimportantly,weknowthatalargerLatinopopulationmeansgreaterattentiontoLatinorelatedissuesintheloca