中国对外直接投资的经验主义外文翻译文档格式.docx

中国对外直接投资的经验主义外文翻译文档格式.docx

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MaterialSource:

PacificEconomicReview,2009.8,312-341Author:

YIN-WONGCHEUNG,XINGWANGQIAN

Abstract：

WeinvestigatetheempiricaldeterminantsofChina’soutwarddirectinvestment（ODI）.ItisfoundthatChina’sinvestmentsindevelopedanddevelopingcountriesaredrivenbydifferentsetsoffactors.Subjecttothedifferencesbetweendevelopedanddevelopingcountries,thereisevidencethat:

（i）bothmarket-seekingandresource-seekingmotivesdriveChina’sODI;

（ii）ChineseexportstodevelopingcountriesinduceChina’sODI;

（iii）China’sinternationalreservespromoteitsODI;

and（iv）Chinesecapitaltendstoagglomerateamongdevelopedeconomiesbutdiversifyamongdevelopingeconomies.SimilarresultsareobtainedusingalternativeODIdata.WedonotfindsubstantialevidencethatChinainvestsinAfricanandoil-producingcountriesmainlyfortheirnaturalresources.

1.Introduction

Whetheritisentirelytrueorapocryphal,theemergenceofChinaintheglobaleconomicstagehasengenderedastrongfeelingofdé

jà

vu.ChinawasestimatedtohavehadapercapitaGDPhigherthanthatofEuropebefore1280,andaccountedfor23.2–32.4%ofworldoutputfrom1700to1820（Maddison1998）.Indeed,Chinawasoneofthemajortradingcentersintheworld.Duringthe16thand17thcenturies,Chinaranasubstantialtradebalancesurplusandwasreferredtoasthe‘sink’forsilver,thevehiclecurrencyofinternationaltradeinthedefactosilverstandardera（SakakibaraandYamakawa2003a,b）.Thereislittledoubtthatthere-emergenceofChinaischangingthelandscapeoftheglobaleconomy;

thequestionis,inwhatdirection?

ThereisaplethoraofanalysesofChina’seconomicprowessintermsof,say,itsballooningtradesurplusandinternationalreserves,anditsabilitytodrawinforeigndirectinvestment（FDI）.1TheroleofChinaasanoutwardinvestorhasseldombeendiscussed,andhasonlybeenthesubjectofattention.

Comparedwithinflows,China’soutwarddirectinvestment（ODI）isquitesmall.AccordingtotheUnitedNationsstatistics,China’sFDIinflowandODIratiowas6.4:

1in2005.However,sincethebeginningofthenewmillennium,China’sdirectinvestmentabroadhassurgedapace.Duringthe1994–1999period,China’soutwardinvestmentamountedtoUS$2.2bn（annualaverage）andaccountedfor3.4%ofoutflowsfromdevelopingcountries.In2005,China’soutwardinvestmentjumpedfivefoldtoUS$11.3bnandaccountedfor9.6%ofoutflowsfromdevelopingcountries.Withitsburgeoningtradesurplusandinternationalreserves,Chinaisexpectedtoenhanceitsroleasasignificantproviderintheinternationalcapitalmarket.Indeed,ChinaranksfourthinthelistofexpectedleadingsourcesofFDI（UNCTAD2005）.

OneinterestingfeatureofChina’soutwardinvestmentisitsconcentrationindevelopingcountries.The2007UnitedNationsreport,forexample,pointsoutthatChinaisamajorcapitalproviderfordevelopingcountriesinAfrica（UNCTAD2007）.China’soutwardinvestment,therefore,hassubstantialimplicationsfortheeconomicdevelopmentoftheworldeconomyingeneralandfordevelopingcountriesinparticular.Furthermore,togetherwithcapitalinflows,capitaloutflowsofferabalancedwayforChinatointegrateintotheglobaleconomy.

Againstthisbackdrop,weexamineChineseinvestmentinoverseasmarkets.Tobesure,wearehardlywalkinginfreshsnowandtherearealreadyafewstudiesonChina’sODI.However,theextantstudiesaremostlydescriptiveinnatureandpolicy-oriented.2ThecurrentstudyempiricallyanalyzestheevolutionofChina’sODIanditsdeterminants.

Toanticipatetheresults,China’soutwardinvestmentdisplayedasteadyincreaseinthe1990sandasurgeearlyinthenewmillennium.TherehasalsobeenadiscernablechangeinthecompositionofthehostcountriesandtheindustrymixofChina’soverseasinvestment.TheestimationresultslendsupporttotheconjecturethatChinahasdifferentmotivationsindeployingitscapitaltodevelopanddevelopingcountries.

Inadditiontotheusualeconomicexplanatoryvariables,weexaminethemotiveofservicingexports,theroleofinternationalreserves,andtheagglomerationeffect.Thesefactorsarefoundtohavevaryingdegreesofexplanatorypoweracrossdevelopedanddevelopingcountries.InexaminingthedatafromAfricanandoil-producingcountries,wefindonlylimitedevidencethatexportsofnaturalresourcesfromthesecountriesattractsomeadditionalamountofChina’sODI.

Inthenextsection,webrieflydescribeChina’soutwardinvestmentpolicyandpresentsomepreliminarydescriptionsofChina’sODIdata.Section3containsthemainempiricalresults.SomeadditionalanalysesareprovidedinSection4.Section5offerssomeconcludingremarks.

2.preliminarydiscussion

2.1.Abriefhistory

Arguably,theopendoorpolicyinitiatedin1978was,andremains,akeydefiningeventincontemporaryChineseeconomichistory.3ThechangeinFDIpolicyaccompanyingeconomicreformprogramshasgreatlyalteredtheeconomicscene.Indeed,therearetwoprongsofChina’sFDIpolicy:

oneistoattractFDIinflowandtheotheristoplacecapitalinoverseasmarkets.Untilrecently,thesuccessofattractinginflowshasovershadowedtheoutwardinvestmentstrategy.

Indeed,theODIactivityinthe1980swasquiteminimal.Directinvestmentabroadinthisperiodisperceivedtohavebeendrivenbypoliticalratherthaneconomicconsiderations.Before1985,onlystate-ownedandlocal-government-ownedenterpriseswereallowedtoinvestoverseas.After1985,privateenter-priseswerepermittedtoapplyforODIprojects.By1990,thestockofODIamountedtoUS$1.2bn.Althoughtheactivityisnegligible,theperiodcanbeviewedasaperiodforauthoritiestodesignanddevelopproceduresandpoliciesforODI.

Between1991and1997,therewasafluxofODI,toHongKonginparticular.Thetrackrecordoftheseinvestmentprojectswasnotgood.Becauseofthelackofinvestmentknow-how,ignoranceabouttheruleoflawinoverseasmarkets,andcorruption,therewereinstancesofsubstantiallossesfromODIprojects.Therefore,theperiodwitnessedanupsurgeofODIactivityfollowedbyatighteningofapprovalprocedures.Attheendof1997,thestockofODIamountedtoUS$2.4bn.DuringthisperiodChinagotarealitycheckonmakingcommercialoverseasinvestment.

The1997Asianfinancialcrisischangedtheglobaleconomiclandscape.In1999,inadjustingitsODIstrategy,ChinaissuedadirectivetoencouragedirectinvestmentabroadthatpromotesChina’sexportsvia‘processingtrade’investment.ThedirectivesignifiedanimportantshiftofChina’spolicy:

frompromotingoverseasinvestmenttodirectingODI.

In2002,theChineseauthoritiespushedthe‘goingglobal’or‘steppingout’strategytosustaintheeconomicreformprocessandtopromoteglobalindustrychampionsinthewakeoftheWTOaccession.4OnJuly16,2004,theauthoritiesmadeanotherchangeintheirODIpolicystance:

inadditiontoprocessingapplications,theysuperviseandprovideservices.Withthesechangesinthe‘goingglobal’strategy,Chineseenterprisesbecamequiteaggressiveintheinternationalcapitalmarket.Indeed,Chineseoutwardinvestmenthasbeensubjecttoscrutinyfollowingsomerecentattemptstosecurenaturalresourcesindevelopingcountriesandfollowinglarge-scaleacquisitionactivitiesintheUSA.

Insum,sinceChinaopenedupin1978,theODIpolicyhasevolvedtogetherwithothereconomicreformpolicies.Specifically,theODIstrategyhasbeentransformedfromapurelypoliticaldevisetoamoremarket-orientedoperation.Intermsofthegroupofplayers,ithasexpandedfrommainlystate-ownedenterprisestoamixofstate-ownedandcommercialentities.Nevertheless,thereisstillaheavystateinvolvementinODIactivity;

atleast,thisiswhatisperceivedbytherestoftheworld.AlthoughtheabsolutemagnitudeofChina’sODIisquitesmallcomparedwithothersourcesofFDI,Chinaisexpectedtobeamongthetop5leadingFDIexportersinboththe2004and2005UNsurveys（UNCTAD2004,2005）.

2.2.China’soutwarddirectinvestment

Figure1.China’sOverseasDirectInvestment

Figure1plotsChina’sODI.ThevalueofODIwasrelativelystableinthe1980s,increasedsteadilyinthe1990s,anddisplayedasharpupwardmomentuminthenewmillennium.AsashareoftheworldtotalFDI,China’sODIisquitesmall,despiteitstwofoldincreasefrom0.27%in1991to0.54%in2005.However,ChinesecapitalaccountedforasteadilyincreasingproportionoftotalFDIfromdevelopingcountries,excludingoffshorefinancialcenters,duringthesampleperiod.Inaword,thesizeofChina’sODIisquitesmall,butitstrajectoryispromising.

Figure2.TheDistributionofChina’sOverseasDirectInvestmentamongDevelopingandDevelopedCountries

Figure2plotsthesharesofChina’sODIstockindevelopedanddevelopingcountries.Althoughflowstobothdevelopedanddevelopingcountriesareincreasingovertime,thesharesofthestockofODItodevelopingcountriesshowacleartrend.In1999,theproportionofChina’sODIindevelopingcountriesovertookthatindevelopedcountries.Sincethen,anincreasinglylargeproportionhasbeendirectedtowardsdevelopingcountries.ThisobservationisinaccordancewiththeusualbeliefthatChinaisintensifyingitseconomicinvolvementindevelopingcountries.

China’sODIcoversawidegeographicdistribution.Asof2005,Chinainvestedin163countriesandengagedinanextensiverangeofeconomicactivities,includinginformationtechnology,finance,retail,fishprocessingandforestry.Theseoverseasinvestments,however,arefairlyconcentratedinafeweconomies,su