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二、NIEqualityinOpeningEconomy:
Y=C+I+G+X-M
3.CA=X-M
CA>
0,surplus;
CA<
0,deficit;
CA=0,balanced
4.CA=Y-A
5..Y=C+I+G+X-M=C+Sp+T;
CA=S-I
CA>
0,surplus,capitaloutflow;
0,deficit,capitalinflow
6.Y=C+I+G+X-M=C+Sp+T;
CA=(Sp-I)+(T-G)
7.TheCurrentAccountincludesallinternationaleconomictransactionswithincomeorpaymentflowsoccurringwithinoneyear,thecurrentperiod.Itconsistsofthefollowingfoursubcategories:
1.Goodstrade(BalanceofTrade):
Importandexportofgoods
2.Servicestrade(BalanceofServices)
3.Income(BalanceofIncome):
Incomeassociatedwithpriorinvestment(Say,adividendpaidbyanAustraliansubsidiaryofaUSfirmtotheparent);
Salariesandwagespaidtononresidentworkers
4.Currenttransfers:
Anyone-waytransferofagiftorgrant,say,USaidtoadevelopingcountry;
Mustbefinancial;
transfersareal(fixed)assetsisinanotheraccount,theFinancial/CapitalAccount
TheCurrentAccountistypicallydominatedbythefirstcomponentwhichisknownastheBalanceofTrade(BOT)eventhoughitexcludesservicetrade.
8.TheCapital/FinancialAccountofthebalanceofpaymentsmeasuresallinternationaleconomictransactionsofrealandfinancialassets.Itisdividedintotwomajorcomponents:
TheCapitalAccount(资本帐户);
TheFinancialAccount(金融帐户)
TheCapitalAccountisminor(inmagnitude),whiletheFinancialAccountissignificant.
9.TheCapitalAccountincludes:
Acquisition/disposalofnonproduced/nonfinancialassets;
Transferoffixedassets
Non-financialassets,forexample,aphysicalassetsuchasland
Non-producedassets,whichareneededforproductionbuthavenotbeenproduced,forexample,amineusedfortheextractionofdiamonds.
10.TheFinancialAccount,however,usesathirdmethod.Thisfocusesonthedegreeofinvestorcontrolovertheassetsoroperations.
TheFinancialAccountconsistsofthreecomponents;
DirectInvestment–inwhichtheinvestorexertssomeexplicitdegreeofcontrolovertheassets(直接投资)
PortfolioInvestment–inwhichtheinvestorhasnocontrolovertheassets(证券投资)
OtherInvestment–consistsofvariousshort-termandlong-termtradecredits,cross-borderloans,currencydeposits,bankdepositsandotherA/RandA/Prelatedtocross-bordertrade(其他投资)
11.
12.TheOfficialReservesAccountisthetotalreservesheldbyofficialmonetaryauthoritieswithinthecountry.
Thesereservesarenormallycomposedofthemajorcurrenciesusedininternationaltradeandfinancialtransactions(hardcurrencies).
Thesignificanceofofficialreservesdependsgenerallyonwhetherthecountryisoperatingunderafixedexchangerateregimeorafloatingexchangeratesystem
Underafixedexchangeregime,thesereservesareimportantindefendingthevalueofadepreciatingcurrency
Changesintheofficialreservesrepresentscashin-oroutflowsthatarecaptureintheOfficialReservesAccount
TheNetErrorsandOmissionsaccountensuresthattheBOPactuallybalancesduetomeasurementerrors
Theerrorsandomissionsinbalanceofpaymentsaccountingariseinlargepartfromthestatisticaldifficultiesinvolvedingatheringbalanceofpaymentsdata.Becauseofficialsdonothavethenecessaryinformationtomakethedoubleentriestheymakesingleentriesbasedontheinformationavailabletothem.Thisinformationoftencomesfrommultiplesourcesthatvaryincoverageandreliability.
13.Reservesincludemonetarygold,specialdrawingrights(SDRs),thereservepositionintheFundandforeignexchange.
14.FundamentalsofBOPAccounting:
Credits:
realresourcesexported------PositiveSign
Debits:
realresourcesimported------NegativeSign
Twoempiricalrules:
AlltransactionsthatarousesforeignexchangeincomeshouldbecreditedinBOP;
AlltransactionsthatarousesforeignexchangeexpenditureshouldbedebitedinBOP.
AutonomousTransaction:
-credit>
debit,surplus;
-credit<
debit,deficit
.AccommodatingTransaction:
debit,deficit;
debit,surplus.
15.X–M=thecurrentaccountbalance
16.IntheorytheBOPmustalwaysbalance,butstatisticalerrorsandmisreportingresultinsubstantialimbalances
17.TheneterrorsandomissionsaccountensuresthattheBOPactuallybalancesduetomeasurementerrors
18.ForeignExchange:
Dynamicusage:
Internationalexchangetransactioninmarketforshort
Staticusage:
Itmeansthemoneyofaforeigncountryandincludes:
Foreigncurrencybankbalances;
Banknotes;
Checksanddrafts;
Currency
19.Aforeignexchangetransactionisanagreementbetweenabuyerandasellerthatafixedamountofonecurrencywillbedeliveredforsomeothercurrencyataspecifieddate
20.Thespotwherehandlesgoodsisgoodsmarket,whiletheplacewheredealsForeignExchangeisForeignExchangeMarket.
21.FunctionsoftheForeignExchangeMarket:
Permitthetransferofpurchasingpowerdenominatedinonecurrencyintoanothercurrencyandtherebyfacilitatetransactions;
Providecreditforinternationaltradetransactions;
Minimizeexposuretotherisksofexchangeratechanges
22.SpeculatorsandArbitrageurs:
Speculatorsandarbitrageursseektoprofitfromtradinginthemarketitself,notforconductingtradeorotherformsofbusiness
Theyoperateintheirowninterest,withoutaneedorobligationtoserveclientsorensureacontinuousmarket
Speculatorsseektoprofitfromtheirviewofexchangeratechanges
Arbitrageursseektoprofitfromsimultaneousexchangeratedifferencesindifferentmarkets
23.Aforeignexchangerateisthepriceofonecurrencyexpressedintermsofanothercurrency
Aforeignexchangequotation(orquote)isastatementofwillingnesstobuyorsellatanannouncedrate.
24.Adirectquoteisahomecurrencypriceofaunitofforeigncurrency;
Anindirectquoteisaforeigncurrencypriceofaunitofhomecurrency
Theformofthequotedependsonwhatthespeakerregardsas“home”
25.Measuringachange—depreciationofappreciationofaforeigncurrency—inthespotrateforquotationsexpressedinhomecurrencyterms:
Directquotations:
Example:
SupposetheSwissfrancisrecentlyquotedinthespotmarketatSF1.5625/$(or,equivalently,$0.6400/SF)butthensuddenlyappreciatestoSF1.2800/$(or,equivalently,$0.78125/SF).WhatisthepercentappreciationoftheSFrelativetothedollar?
26.
Measuringachange—depreciationofappreciationofaforeigncurrency—inthespotrateforquotationsexpressedinforeigncurrencyterms:
Indirectquotations:
AllourformulashavebeeninIndirecttermswiththeUS$asthehomecurrency
Example(continued):
ThesamerateofappreciationfortheSwissFrancrelativetotheUSDollar!
27.Spotrate:
adoptaSpottransaction;
Forwardrate:
adoptaforwardtransaction
28.ASpottransactionintheInterbankmarketisthepurchaseofforeignexchangewithdeliveryandpaymentbetweenbankstotakeplace,normally,onthesecondfollowingbusinessday.
Thedateofsettlementisreferredtoasthevaluedate.
29.AnOutrightForwardtransaction(usuallyjustcalledaForward)requiresdeliveryatafuturedateofaspecifiedamountofonecurrencyforaspecifiedamountofanothercurrency.
Theexchangerateisestablishedatthetimeoftheagreement,butpaymentanddeliveryarenotrequireduntilmaturity.
Forwardexchangeratesareusuallyquotedforvaluedatesofone,two,three,sixandtwelvemonths.
30.Arbitrage:
seektoprofitfromsimultaneousexchangeratedifferencesindifferentmarkets
Directarbitrage:
operatebetweentwoforeignmarkets
Indirectarbitrage:
operateinthreeforeignmarkets
InterestArbitrage:
seektoprofitfromsimultaneousinterestratedifferencesindifferentmarkets
ClassDrill1:
1、Assumption:
thebasicratebetweenUSdollarsandtheRMBisnormallystated:
$1=¥8.2500,thebasicratebetweenUSdollarsandtheJ¥isnormallystated:
$1=J¥100.0000
Calculation:
what’sthecrossratebetweenRMBandJ¥?
2、Assumption:
oneday,anAmericanexporterdatesacontractwithaGermanyimporterforsomegoodsworthyofDM1,500,000.ThecountingcurrencyisDM.Theywillpayoffafterthreemonths.Therateis$1=DM1.5000whentheysignedthetreaty.
Questions:
-Whatdoestheratebelongtowhentheyaredating?
-Whichcountrywouldn’tsuffertheriskofforeignexchange?
-Howtoavoidit?
3、Assumption:
Oneday------firstdayinMay,aspeculatoranticipatestheexchangeratebetweenUSdollarandDMis$1=DM1.4580onfirstdayinAugest,whilethethree-monthexchangeratebetweenUSdollarandDMisstated$1=DM1.4500onfirstdayinAugest.
-What’stheformerrateandlatterraterespectively?
-Howcangettheprofit?
4、Assumption:
At10am.ononebusinessday,theexchangeratebetweenUSdollarandDMisstated$1=DM1.4500inNewYork,whilesimultaneouslytheexchangeratebetweenUSdollarandDMisstated$1=DM1.4600inFrankfurt.
Howtoarbitrage?
5、Assumption: