职称英语卫生类阅读理解模拟试题Word格式文档下载.docx

职称英语卫生类阅读理解模拟试题Word格式文档下载.docx

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　　第一篇

　　ForecastingMethods

　　Thereareseveraldifferentmethodsthatcanbeusedtocreateaforecast.Themethodforecasterchoosesdependsupontheexperienceoftheforecaster,theamountofinformationavailabletotheforecaster,thelevelofdifficultythattheforecastsituationpresents,andthedegreeofaccuracyorconfidenceneededintheforecast.

　　Thefirstofthesemethodsisthepersistencemethod;

thesimplestwayofproducingaforecast.Thepersistencemethodassumesthattheconditionsatthetimeoftheforecastwillnotchange.Forexample,ifitissunnyand87degreetoday,thepersistencemethodpredictsthatitwillbesunnyand87degreetomorrow.Iftwoinchesofrainfelltoday,thepersistencemethodwouldpredicttwoinchesofrainfortomorrow.However,ifweatherconditionschangesignificantlyfromdaytoday,thepersistencemethodusuallybreaksdownandisnotthebestforecastingmethodtouse.

　　Thetrendsmethodinvolvesdeterminingthespeedanddirectionofmovementforfronts,highandlowpressurecenters,andareasofcloudsandprecipitation.Usingthisinformation,theforecastercanpredictwhereheorsheexpectsthosefeaturestobeatsomefuturetime.Forexample,ifastormsystemis1,000mileswestofyourlocationandmovingtotheeastat250milesperday,suingthetrendsmethodyouwouldpredictittoarriveinyourareain4days.Thetrendsmethodworkswellwhensystemscontinuetomoveatthesamespeedinthesamedirectionforalongperiodoftime.iftheyslowdown,speedup,changeintensity,orchangedirection,thetrendsforecastwillprobablynotworkaswell.

　　Theclimatologymethodisanothersimplewayofproducingaforecast.Thismethodinvolvesaveragingweatherstatisticsaccumulatedovermanyearstomaketheforecast.Forexample,ifyouwereusingtheclimatologymethodtopredicttheweatherfornewYorkCityonJuly4th,youwouldgothroughalltheweatherdatathathasbeenrecordedforeveryJuly4thandtakeanaverage.Theclimatologymethodonlyworkswellwhentheweatherpatternissimilartothatexpectedforthechosentimeofyear.ifthepatternisquiteunusualforthegiventimeofyear,theclimatologymethodwilloftenfail.

　　Theanalogmethodisaslightlymorecomplicatedmethodofproducingaforecast.Itinvolvesexaminingtoday'

sforecastscenarioandrememberingadayinthepastwhentheweatherscenariolookedverysimilar（ananalog）.Theforecasterwouldpredictthattheweatherinthisforecastwillbehavethesameasitdidinthepast.Theanalogmethodisdifficulttousebecauseitisvirtuallyimpossibletofindapredictanalog.Variousweatherfeaturesrarelyalignthemselvesinthesamelocationstheywereintheprevioustime.Evensmalldifferencesbetweenthecurrenttimeandtheanalogcanleadtoverydifferentresults.

　　31　WhatfactorisNOTmentionedinchoosingaforecastingmethod?

__________

　　A　Imaginationoftheforecaster.

　　B　Necessaryamountofinformation.

　　C　Practicalknowledgeoftheforecaster.

　　D　Degreeofdifficultyinvolvedinforecasting.

　　32　Persistencemethodwillworkwell__________.

　　A　ifweatherconditionschangegreatlyfromdaytoday

　　B　ifweatherconditionsdonotchangemuch

　　C　onsunnydays

　　D　onrainydays

　　33　Thelimitationofthetrendsmethodisthesameasthepersistencemethodinthat__________.

　　A　itmakespredicationsaboutweather

　　B　itmakespredicationsaboutprecipitation

　　C　theweatherfeaturesneedtobewelldefined

　　D　theweatherfeaturesneedtobeconstantforalongperiodoftime

　　34　Whichmethodmayinvolvehistoricalweatherdata?

　　A　Thetrendsmethod.

　　B　Theanalogmethod.

　　C　Bothclimatologymethodandanalogmethod.

　　D　Thetrendsmethodandthepersistencemethod.

　　35　Itwillbeimpossibletomakeweatherforecastusingtheanalogmethod__________.

　　A　whenthecurrentweatherscenariodiffersfromtheanalog

　　B　whenthecurrentweatherscenarioisthesameastheanalog

　　C　whentheanalogisovertenyearsold

　　D　whentheanalogisasimplerepetitionofthecurrentweatherscenario

　　第二篇

　　LateralThinking

　　Lateralthinking（迂回思维）,firstdescribedbyEdwarddeBonoin1967,isjustafewyearsolderthanEdward'

sson.YoumightimaginethatCasparwasraisedtobeanadventurousthinker,butdeBononamewassofamous,Casper'

sparentsworriedthatanytimehewouldsaysomethingbrightatschool,histeachersmightsnap,“Wheredoyougetthatideafrom?

”

　　“Wehadtobecarefulandnotoverdoit,”Edwardadmits.NowCasperisatOxford--whichoncelookedunlikelybecauseheisalsoslightlydyslexic（诵读困难）.Infact,whenhewasapplyingtoOxford,noneofhisschoolteachersthoughthehadachance.“Sothenwedi