职称英语卫生类阅读理解模拟试题Word格式文档下载.docx
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第一篇
ForecastingMethods
Thereareseveraldifferentmethodsthatcanbeusedtocreateaforecast.Themethodforecasterchoosesdependsupontheexperienceoftheforecaster,theamountofinformationavailabletotheforecaster,thelevelofdifficultythattheforecastsituationpresents,andthedegreeofaccuracyorconfidenceneededintheforecast.
Thefirstofthesemethodsisthepersistencemethod;
thesimplestwayofproducingaforecast.Thepersistencemethodassumesthattheconditionsatthetimeoftheforecastwillnotchange.Forexample,ifitissunnyand87degreetoday,thepersistencemethodpredictsthatitwillbesunnyand87degreetomorrow.Iftwoinchesofrainfelltoday,thepersistencemethodwouldpredicttwoinchesofrainfortomorrow.However,ifweatherconditionschangesignificantlyfromdaytoday,thepersistencemethodusuallybreaksdownandisnotthebestforecastingmethodtouse.
Thetrendsmethodinvolvesdeterminingthespeedanddirectionofmovementforfronts,highandlowpressurecenters,andareasofcloudsandprecipitation.Usingthisinformation,theforecastercanpredictwhereheorsheexpectsthosefeaturestobeatsomefuturetime.Forexample,ifastormsystemis1,000mileswestofyourlocationandmovingtotheeastat250milesperday,suingthetrendsmethodyouwouldpredictittoarriveinyourareain4days.Thetrendsmethodworkswellwhensystemscontinuetomoveatthesamespeedinthesamedirectionforalongperiodoftime.iftheyslowdown,speedup,changeintensity,orchangedirection,thetrendsforecastwillprobablynotworkaswell.
Theclimatologymethodisanothersimplewayofproducingaforecast.Thismethodinvolvesaveragingweatherstatisticsaccumulatedovermanyearstomaketheforecast.Forexample,ifyouwereusingtheclimatologymethodtopredicttheweatherfornewYorkCityonJuly4th,youwouldgothroughalltheweatherdatathathasbeenrecordedforeveryJuly4thandtakeanaverage.Theclimatologymethodonlyworkswellwhentheweatherpatternissimilartothatexpectedforthechosentimeofyear.ifthepatternisquiteunusualforthegiventimeofyear,theclimatologymethodwilloftenfail.
Theanalogmethodisaslightlymorecomplicatedmethodofproducingaforecast.Itinvolvesexaminingtoday'
sforecastscenarioandrememberingadayinthepastwhentheweatherscenariolookedverysimilar(ananalog).Theforecasterwouldpredictthattheweatherinthisforecastwillbehavethesameasitdidinthepast.Theanalogmethodisdifficulttousebecauseitisvirtuallyimpossibletofindapredictanalog.Variousweatherfeaturesrarelyalignthemselvesinthesamelocationstheywereintheprevioustime.Evensmalldifferencesbetweenthecurrenttimeandtheanalogcanleadtoverydifferentresults.
31 WhatfactorisNOTmentionedinchoosingaforecastingmethod?
__________
A Imaginationoftheforecaster.
B Necessaryamountofinformation.
C Practicalknowledgeoftheforecaster.
D Degreeofdifficultyinvolvedinforecasting.
32 Persistencemethodwillworkwell__________.
A ifweatherconditionschangegreatlyfromdaytoday
B ifweatherconditionsdonotchangemuch
C onsunnydays
D onrainydays
33 Thelimitationofthetrendsmethodisthesameasthepersistencemethodinthat__________.
A itmakespredicationsaboutweather
B itmakespredicationsaboutprecipitation
C theweatherfeaturesneedtobewelldefined
D theweatherfeaturesneedtobeconstantforalongperiodoftime
34 Whichmethodmayinvolvehistoricalweatherdata?
A Thetrendsmethod.
B Theanalogmethod.
C Bothclimatologymethodandanalogmethod.
D Thetrendsmethodandthepersistencemethod.
35 Itwillbeimpossibletomakeweatherforecastusingtheanalogmethod__________.
A whenthecurrentweatherscenariodiffersfromtheanalog
B whenthecurrentweatherscenarioisthesameastheanalog
C whentheanalogisovertenyearsold
D whentheanalogisasimplerepetitionofthecurrentweatherscenario
第二篇
LateralThinking
Lateralthinking(迂回思维),firstdescribedbyEdwarddeBonoin1967,isjustafewyearsolderthanEdward'
sson.YoumightimaginethatCasparwasraisedtobeanadventurousthinker,butdeBononamewassofamous,Casper'
sparentsworriedthatanytimehewouldsaysomethingbrightatschool,histeachersmightsnap,“Wheredoyougetthatideafrom?
”
“Wehadtobecarefulandnotoverdoit,”Edwardadmits.NowCasperisatOxford--whichoncelookedunlikelybecauseheisalsoslightlydyslexic(诵读困难).Infact,whenhewasapplyingtoOxford,noneofhisschoolteachersthoughthehadachance.“Sothenwedi