职称英语卫生类阅读理解模拟试题Word格式文档下载.docx

1、请仔细阅读短文并根据短文回答其后面的问题，从4个选项中选择1个答案涂在答题卡相对应的位置上。第一篇Forecasting MethodsThere are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty t

2、hat the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.The first of these methods is the persistence method;the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For exam

3、ple, if it is sunny and 87 degree today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degree tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the pers

4、istence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use.The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts, high and low pressure centers, and areas of clouds and precipitation. Using this information, the forecaster can predict where he or

5、 she expects those features to be at some future time. For example, if a storm system is 1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day, suing the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days. The trends method works well when systems continue to

6、 move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time. if they slow down, speed up, change intensity, or change direction, the trends forecast will probably not work as well.The climatology method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves averaging weather

7、 statistics accumulated over man years to make the forecast. For example, if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for new York City on July 4th, you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average. The climatology method onl

8、y works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. if the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year, the climatology method will often fail.The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining tod

9、ays forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar （an analog）. The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past. The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to fi

10、nd a predict analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.31What factor is NOT mentioned in choosing a forecasting method? _AImagination

11、 of the forecaster.BNecessary amount of information.CPractical knowledge of the forecaster.DDegree of difficulty involved in forecasting.32Persistence method will work well _.Aif weather conditions change greatly from day to dayBif weather conditions do not change muchCon sunny daysDon rainy days33T

12、he limitation of the trends method is the same as the persistence method in that _.Ait makes predications about weatherBit makes predications about precipitationCthe weather features need to be well definedDthe weather features need to be constant for a long period of time34Which method may involve

13、historical weather data?AThe trends method.BThe analog method.CBoth climatology method and analog method.DThe trends method and the persistence method.35It will be impossible to make weather forecast using the analog method _.Awhen the current weather scenario differs from the analogBwhen the curren

14、t weather scenario is the same as the analogCwhen the analog is over ten years oldDwhen the analog is a simple repetition of the current weather scenario第二篇Lateral ThinkingLateral thinking （迂回思维）, first described by Edward de Bono in 1967, is just a few years older than Edwards son. You might imagin

15、e that Caspar was raised to be an adventurous thinker, but de Bono name was so famous, Caspers parents worried that any time he would say something bright at school, his teachers might snap, “Where do you get that idea from?”“We had to be careful and not overdo it,” Edward admits. Now Casper is at Oxford -which once looked unlikely because he is also slightly dyslexic （诵读困难）. In fact, when he was applying to Oxford, none of his school teachers thought he had a chance. “So then we di