mankiw7e-chap15PPT推荐.ppt
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1.Shouldpolicybeactiveorpassive?
2.Shouldpolicybebyruleordiscretion?
2CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyQuestion1:
Shouldpolicybeactiveorpassive?
GrowthrateofU.S.realGDP1970197519801985199019952000200520100246810-2-4Percentchangefrom4quartersearlierAveragegrowthrateIncreaseinunemploymentduringrecessionspeaktroughincreaseinno.ofunemployedpersons(millions)July1953May19542.11Aug1957April19582.27April1960February19611.21December1969November19702.01November1973March19753.58January1980July19801.68July1981November19824.08July1990March19911.67March2001November20011.50Increasefrom12/2007thru6/2009:
7.2million!
Increasefrom12/2007thru6/2009:
5CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyArgumentsforactivepolicyRecessionscauseeconomichardshipformillionsofpeople.TheEmploymentActof1946:
“ItisthecontinuingpolicyandresponsibilityoftheFederalGovernmenttopromotefullemploymentandproduction.”Themodelofaggregatedemandandsupply(Chaps.9-13)showshowfiscalandmonetarypolicycanrespondtoshocksandstabilizetheeconomy.6CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyArgumentsagainstactivepolicyPoliciesactwithlong&
variablelags,including:
insidelag:
thetimebetweentheshockandthepolicyresponse.takestimetorecognizeshocktakestimetoimplementpolicy,especiallyfiscalpolicyoutsidelag:
thetimeittakesforpolicytoaffecteconomy.Ifconditionschangebeforepolicysimpactisfelt,thepolicymaydestabilizetheeconomy.7CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyAutomaticstabilizersdefinition:
policiesthatstimulateordepresstheeconomywhennecessarywithoutanydeliberatepolicychange.Designedtoreducethelagsassociatedwithstabilizationpolicy.Examples:
incometaxunemploymentinsurancewelfare8CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyForecastingthemacroeconomyBecausepoliciesactwithlags,policymakersmustpredictfutureconditions.Twowayseconomistsgenerateforecasts:
LeadingeconomicindicatorsdataseriesthatfluctuateinadvanceoftheeconomyMacroeconometricmodelsLarge-scalemodelswithestimatedparametersthatcanbeusedtoforecasttheresponseofendogenousvariablestoshocksandpolicies9CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyTheLEIindexandrealGDP,1960ssourceofLEIdata:
TheConferenceBoardTheIndexofLeadingEconomicIndicatorsincludes10dataseries(seep.258).10CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyTheLEIindexandrealGDP,1970ssourceofLEIdata:
TheConferenceBoard11CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyTheLEIindexandrealGDP,1980ssourceofLEIdata:
TheConferenceBoard12CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyTheLEIindexandrealGDP,1990ssourceofLEIdata:
TheConferenceBoardMistakesforecastingthe1982recessionUnemploymentrate14CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyForecastingthemacroeconomyBecausepoliciesactwithlags,policymakersmustpredictfutureconditions.Theprecedingslidesshowthattheforecastsareoftenwrong.Thisisonereasonwhysomeeconomistsopposepolicyactivism.15CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyTheLucascritiqueDuetoRobertLucaswhowonNobelPrizein1995forrationalexpectations.Forecastingtheeffectsofpolicychangeshasoftenbeendoneusingmodelsestimatedwithhistoricaldata.Lucaspointedoutthatsuchpredictionswouldnotbevalidifthepolicychangealtersexpectationsinawaythatchangesthefundamentalrelationshipsbetweenvariables.16CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyAnexampleoftheLucascritiquePrediction(basedonpastexperience):
Anincreaseinthemoneygrowthratewillreduceunemployment.TheLucascritiquepointsoutthatincreasingthemoneygrowthratemayraiseexpectedinflation,inwhichcaseunemploymentwouldnotnecessarilyfall.17CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyTheJurysoutLookingatrecenthistorydoesnotclearlyanswerQuestion1:
Itshardtoidentifyshocksinthedata.Itshardtotellhowoutcomeswouldhavebeendifferenthadactualpoliciesnotbeenused.18CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyQuestion2:
Shouldpolicybeconductedbyruleordiscretion?
19CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyRulesanddiscretion:
BasicconceptsPolicyconductedbyrule:
Policymakersannounceinadvancehowpolicywillrespondinvarioussituations,andcommitthemselvestofollowingthrough.Policyconductedbydiscretion:
Aseventsoccurandcircumstanceschange,policymakersusetheirjudgmentandapplywhateverpoliciesseemappropriateatthetime.20CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyArgumentsforrules1.Distrustofpolicymakersandthepoliticalprocessmisinformedpoliticianspoliticiansinterestssometimesnotthesameastheinterestsofsociety21CHAPTER15StabilizationPolicyArgumentsforrules2.Thetimeinconsistencyofdiscretionarypolicydef:
Ascenario