Valuation for acquisition and mergersWord下载.docx
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.Overvaluationproblem
Whenacompanyacquiresanothercompany,italwayspaysaboveitscurrentmarketvalue.
PossiblereasonsforM&
amp;
Anotenhancingshareholders’value
Agencytheory:
theovervaluationproblemisdeterminedbythedegreeoftheagencyproblemprevalentintheacquirerandtheabilityofthetarget’sshareholderstoextractthispremium.
Empiricalevidencesshowthereisnormallyafallinthepriceofthebidderandanincreaseinthepriceofthetargetduringanacquisition,indicatingatransferofvaluefromtheacquirertothetarget.
Miscalculationofthepotentialsynergiesortheoverestimationofabilityofacquiringfirm’smanagementtoimproveperformance.
NPVofM&
A=Synergy-premium
Method1:
Method2:
2.Estimategrowthlevel
3waystoestimatethegrowthrateofearningsofacompany:
Historicalestimate
Lengthofestimationperiodhavetobedecidedsubjectively
Growthratemaybevolatile
Analystforecasts
Analystsregularlyproducedforecastsonthegrowthofacompany
Companyfundamentals:
growthrateisdeterminedbyROEandretentionrate
(P310Q&
A)
3.ImpactofM&
Aupon
riskprofileofacquirer
Type1acquisitiondoesnotdisturbtheacquirer’sfinancialorbusinessrisk
Type2acquisitionaffectstheacquirer’sfinancialriskbutnotitsbusinessrisk
Type3acquisitionaffectsboththeacquirer’sfinancialriskanditsbusinessrisk
Businessriskofcombinedentity
Assetbetaofcombinedfirmistheweightedaverageofthebetasofthetargetfirm,thepredatorfirmandthesynergy.
Leveragedequitybetaofcombinedfirm
CostofequityisgivenbyCAPM
WACCcanthenbederived
4.Type1acquisition
Methodstovaluetargetfirm:
Bookvalue-plusmodels
Marketrelativemodels
Cashflowmodels,includingEVA,MVA
Bookvalue-plusmodel
Basingonthebalancesheetasthestartingpointinthevaluationprocess.
Valuepershare
=netassetvalue/numberofordinaryshares
=(totaltangibleassets-shortandlong-termliabilities-preferenceshares)/numberofordinaryshares
P/Eratio
Marketvaluepershare=EPS×
P/Eratio
AsuitableP/Eratioshouldbedecided,takingmarketexpectations,riskandstatus(quotedorunquotedcompany)intoconsideration(*p314Q&
EPScouldbehistoricalorprospective
Tobin’sQratio
marketvalueofafirm/totalassetvalueofthefirm
Q=1isacut-offpoint
Higher-Qfirmsusuallybuylow-Qfirms
Marketvalueofatargetcompany=M/Bratio×
bookvalueofassets
Freecashflowmodels
Step1:
calculateFCF
Step2:
forecastFCFandterminalvalue
Step3:
calculateWACC
Step4:
discountFCFatWACCtoobtainvalueofthefirm
Step5:
calculateequityvaluebysubtractingvalueofdebt
*p316Q&
A
calculateFCFE
forecastFCFEandterminalvalue
calculatecostofequity
discountFCFEatcostofequitytoobtainequityvalue
EVAapproach
EVA=NOPAT-WACC×
Capitalemployed
=(ROIC-WACC)×
NOPAT=EBIT×
(1-T)
Capitalemployed=operatingcurrentassets-non-interestbearingcurrentliabilities+netfixedassets
ROIC=NOPAT/Capitalemployed
*capitalemployedatthebeginningoftheyear
Adjustmentsonintangibles,accountingdepreciationandamortization,etc.
P3174.5.1example
Valueofthefirm=valueofinvestedcapital+presentvalueofEVA
P3194.5.3example
MVAapproach
MVA=marketvalueofdebt+marketvalueofequity–(bookvalueofdebt+bookvalueofequity)
Showshowmuchthemanagementofcompanyhasaddedtothevalueofcapitalcapitalcontributedbycapitalproviders
Ifbookvalueandmarketvalueofdebtarethesame,thenitmeasuresthevalueaddedtoequity
MVA=PresentvalueofEVA
Sometimesexpressedasamarkettobookratio
Dividendvaluationbasis
Anequilibriumpriceforanyshareonastockmarketisthefutureexpectedstreamofincomediscountedatsuitablecostofcapital
Dividendgrowthmodel:
Valuationmethodscompared
2007-6-4(d):
limitationofPEandCFbasedmethods
5.Type2acquisition
——usingAPV(p321example)
calculateunleveredcostofcapital
discountFCFandterminalvalueatunleveredcostofcapital
calculateinteresttaxshield
Step6:
discountinteresttaxshieldatpretaxcostofdebttoobtainPVofinteresttaxshield
Step7:
calculateAPV
6.Type3acquisition
Stepsforvaluingatyp