金融学外文翻译一个国际历史性的比较美国次贷金融危机是否不同Word文件下载.docx
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金融学外文翻译一个国际历史性的比较美国次贷金融危机是否不同@#@中文3660字@#@外文原文@#@Isthe2007U.S.Sub-PrimeFinancialCrisisSoDifferent?
@#@AnInternationalHistoricalComparison@#@CarmenM.ReinhartUniversityofMarylandandtheNBERandKennethS.RogoffHarvardUniversityandtheNBER@#@Thefirstmajorfinancialcrisisofthe21stcenturyinvolvesesotericinstruments,unawareregulators,andskittishinvestors.Italsofollowsawell-troddenpathlaiddownbycenturiesoffinancialfolly.Thistimeisaproblemofsub-primemortgages,butthistimeisnotdifferent.Infact,therearestunningquantitativeparallelsacrossanumberofmajorcrisisindicatorsfromthestandardliteratureoninternationalfinancialcrises.Forexample,therun-upinU.S.equityandhousingprices,whichGracielaL.KaminskyandCarmenM.Reinhart(1999)findtothebebestleadingindicatorsofcrisisincountriesexperiencinglargecapitalinflows,closelytrackstheaverageofthenineteenmajorpostWorldWarIIbankingcrisesinindustrialcountries.So,too,istheinvertedv-shapeofrealgrowthintheyearspriortothecrisis.Despitewidespreadconcernabouttheeffectsonnationaldebtoftheearly2000staxcuts,therun-upinU.S.publicdebtisactuallysomewhatbelowtheaverageofothercrisisepisodes.Incontrast,thepatternofUnitedStatescurrentaccountdeficitsismarkedlyworse.@#@ThebookisstillopenonthehowthecurrentdislocationsintheUnitedStateswillplayout,butsomeprecedentcanbefoundintheaftermathofotherbank-centeredfinancialcrisesinindustrialeconomies.Dependingonthedegreeoftraumatothebankingsystem,theycanbequitesevere.Aseverebankingcrisistypicallyhasafardeeperandmoreprotractedeffectongrowththandoesaseverecurrencycrisis,ifthelatteroccursinisolation.Theaveragedropin(realpercapita)outputgrowthisovertwopercent,andittypicallytakestwoyearstoreturntotrend.Forthefivemostcatastrophiccases(whichincludeepisodesinFinland,Japan,Norway,SpainandSweden),thedropinannualoutputgrowthfrompeaktotroughisoverfivepercent,andgrowthremainedwellbelowpre-crisistrendevenafterthreeyears.Itis,ofcourse,themorecatastrophiccasesthatpolicymakersparticularlywanttosteerclearof.@#@1.PostWarBank-CenteredFinancialCrises:
@#@TheData@#@Ourmainpurposehereistomakesimpleandstraightforwardcomparisonsofthe@#@UnitedStates2007crisiswithotherpost-warcrises,employingasmallpieceofamuchlargerandlongerhistoricaldatasetwehaveconstructed(seeReinhartandKennethS.Rogoff,2008.)Theextendeddatasetcataloguesbankingandfinancialcrisesaroundtheentireworlddatingbackto1800(insomecasesearlier).InordertofocushereondatamostrelevanttopresentU.S.situation,wedonotconsidertheplethoraofemergingmarketcrises,norindustrializedcountryfinancialcrisesfromtheGreatDepressionorthe1800s.Nevertheless,itisstrikinghowmuchthe“thistimeisdifferent”syndromehasalreadybeenrepeated.@#@Firstcametherationalizations.Thistime,manyanalystsargued,thehugerun-upinU.S.housingpriceswasnotatallabubble,butratherjustifiedbyfinancialinnovation(includingtosub-primemortgages,aswellasbythesteadyinflowofcapitalfromAsiaandpetroleumexporters.Thehugerun-upinequitypriceswassimilarlyarguedtobesustainablethankstoasurgeinU.S.productivitygrowthafallinriskthataccompaniedthe“GreatModeration”inmacroeconomicvolatility.AsfortheextraordinarystringofoutsizedU.S.currentaccountdeficits,whichnowsoakuproughlytwo-thirdsofalltheworld’scurrentaccountsurpluses,manyanalystsarguedthatthese,too,couldbejustifiedbynewelementsoftheglobaleconomy.Thankstoacombinationofaflexibleeconomyandtheinnovationofthetechboom,theUnitedStatescouldbeexpectedtoenjoysuperiorproductivitygrowthfordecades,whilesuperiorAmericanknow-howmeanthigherreturnsonphysicalandfinancialinvestmentthanforeignerscouldexpectintheUnitedStates.@#@Nextcamethereality.Inthepastfewmonth,wehaveseenastrikingcontractioninwealth,increasesinriskspreads,anddeteriorationinmarketfunctioning.The2007@#@UnitedStatessub-primecrisis,ofcourse,hasitrootsinfallingU.S.housingprices,@#@whichhaveinturnledtohigherdefaultlevelsparticularlyamonglesscreditworthy@#@borrowers.Theimpactofthesedefaultsonthefinancialsectorhasbeengreatlymagnifiedduetocomplexbundlingtechniquesthatwerethoughttospreadriskefficiently,butinfacthavemadetheresultinginstrumentsextremelynontransparentandilliquidinthefaceoffallinghouseprices.@#@Asabenchmarkforthe2007U.S.sub-primecrisis,wedrawondatafromnineteenbank-centeredfinancialcrisesfromthepost-Warperiod.Wehaveincludedpostwarepisodesinwhichanimportantfinancialinstitutionors