供应链风险管理【外文翻译】Word文档下载推荐.docx

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D.L.OlsonandD.Wu

Globalcompetition,technologicalchange,andcontinualsearchforcompetitiveadvantagehavemotivatedriskmanagementinsupplychains.1Supplychainsareoftencomplexsystemsofnetworks,reachinghundredsorthousandsofparticipantsfromaroundtheglobeinsomecases（Wal-MartorDell）.Thetermhasbeenusedbothatthestrategiclevel（coordinationandcollaboration）andtacticallevel（management

oflogisticsacrossfunctionsandbetweenbusinesses）.2Inthissense,riskmanagementcanfocusonidentificationofbetterwaysandmeansofaccomplishingorganizationalobjectivesratherthansimplypreservationofassetsorriskavoidance.

Supplychainriskmanagementisinterestedincoordinationandcollaborationofprocessesandactivitiesacrossfunctionswithinanetworkoforganizations.Tangprovidedaframeworkofriskmanagementperspectivesinsupplychains.3Supplychainsenablemanufacturingoutsourcingtotakeadvantagesofglobalrelative

advantages,aswellasincreaseproductvariety.Therearemanyrisksinherentinthismoreopen,dynamicsystem.

SupplyChainRiskManagementProcess

Oneviewofasupplychainriskmanagementprocessincludesstepsforriskidentification,

riskassessment,riskavoidance,andriskmitigation.4ThesestructuresforhandlingriskarecompatiblewithTang’slistgivenabove,butfocusonthebroaderaspectsoftheprocess.

RiskIdentification

Risksinsupplychainscanincludeoperationalrisksanddisruptions.Operationalrisksinvolveinherentuncertaintiesforsupplychainelementssuchascustomerdemand,supply,andcost.Disruptionriskscomefromdisasters（naturalintheformoffloods,hurricanes,etc.;

man-madeintheformofterroristattacksorwars）andfromeconomiccrises（currencyreevaluations,strikes,shiftingmarketprices）.Mostquantitativeanalysesandmethodsarefocusedonoperationalrisks.Disruptionsaremoredramatic,lesspredictable,andthusaremuchmoredifficulttomodel.Riskmanagementplanningandresponsefordisruptionareusuallyqualitative.

RiskAssessment

Theoretically,riskhasbeenviewedasapplyingtothosecaseswhereoddsareknown,anduncertaintytothosecaseswhereoddsarenotknown.Riskisapreferablebasisfordecisionmaking,butlifeoftenpresentsdecisionmakerswithcasesofuncertainty.Theissueisfurthercomplicatedinthatperfectlyrationaldecision

makersmayhaveradicallydifferentapproachestorisk.Qualitativeriskmanagementdependsagreatdealonmanagerialattitudetowardsrisk.Differentrationalindividualsarelikelytohavedifferentresponsetoriskavoidance,whichusuallyisinverselyrelatedtoreturn,thusleadingtoatradeoffdecision.Researchinto

cognitivepsychologyhasfoundthatmanagersareofteninsensitivetoprobabilityestimatesofpossibleoutcomes,andtendtoignorepossibleeventsthattheyconsider

tobeunlikely.5Furthermore,managerstendtopaylittleattentiontouncertaintyinvolvedwithpositiveoutcomes.6Theytendtofocusoncriticalperformancetargets,whichmakestheirresponsetoriskcontingentuponcontext.7Someapproachestotheoreticaldecisionmakingpreferobjectivetreatmentofriskthroughquantitativescientificmeasuresfollowingnormativeideasofhowhumansshouldmakedecisions.Businessinvolvesanuntheoreticalconstruct,however,withhighlevelsofuncertainty（datanotavailable）andconsiderationofmultiple（oftenconflicting）factors,makingqualitativeapproachesbaseduponperceivedmanagerialriskmoreappropriate.

Becauseaccuratemeasuresoffactorssuchasprobabilityareoftenlacking,robuststrategies（morelikelytoenableeffectiveresponseunderawiderangeofcircumstances）areoftenattractivetoriskmanagers.Strategiesareefficientiftheyenableafirmtodealwithoperationalrisksefficientlyregardlessofmajordisruptions.

Strategiesareresilientiftheyenableafirmtokeepoperatingdespitemajordisruptions.Supplychainriskcanarisefrommanysources,includingthefollowing:

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●Politicalevents

●Productavailability

●Distancefromsource

●Industrycapacity

●Demandfluctuation

●Changesintechnology

●Changesinlabormarkets

●Financialinstability

●Managementturnover

RiskAvoidance

Theoldestformofriskavoidanceisprobablyinsurance,purchasingsomeleveloffinancialsecurityfromanunderwriter.Thisfocusesonthefinancialaspectsofrisk,andisreactive,providingsomerecoveryafteranegativeexperience.Insuranceisnottheonlyformofriskmanagementusedinsupplychains.DeltaAirlinesinsurancepremiumsforterrorismincreasedfrom$2millionin2001to$152millionin2002.9Insurancefocusesonfinancialrisks.Othermajorrisksincludelossofcustomersduetosupplychangedisruption.

Supplychainriskscanbebufferedb