供应链风险管理【外文翻译】Word文档下载推荐.docx

1、D.L. Olson and D. WuGlobal competition, technological change, and continual search for competitive advantage have motivated risk management in supply chains.1 Supply chains are often complex systems of networks, reaching hundreds or thousands of participants from around the globe in some cases （Wal-

2、Mart or Dell）. The term has been used both at the strategic level （coordination and collaboration） and tactical level （management of logistics across functions and between businesses）.2 In this sense, risk management can focus on identification of better ways and means of accomplishing organizationa

3、l objectives rather than simply preservation of assets or risk avoidance. Supply chain risk management is interested in coordination and collaboration of processes and activities across functions within a network of organizations. Tang provided a framework of risk management perspectives in supply c

4、hains.3 Supply chains enable manufacturing outsourcing to take advantages of global relative advantages, as well as increase product variety. There are many risks inherent in this more open, dynamic system. Supply Chain Risk Management Process One view of a supply chain risk management process inclu

5、des steps for risk identification, risk assessment, risk avoidance, and risk mitigation.4 These structures for handling risk are compatible with Tangs list given above, but focus on the broader aspects of the process. Risk Identification Risks in supply chains can include operational risks and disru

6、ptions. Operational risks involve inherent uncertainties for supply chain elements such as customer demand, supply, and cost. Disruption risks come from disasters （natural in the form of floods, hurricanes, etc.; man-made in the form of terrorist attacks or wars） and from economic crises （currency r

7、eevaluations, strikes, shifting market prices）. Most quantitative analyses and methods are focused on operational risks. Disruptions are more dramatic, less predictable, and thus are much more difficult to model. Risk management planning and response for disruption are usually qualitative. Risk Asse

8、ssment Theoretically, risk has been viewed as applying to those cases where odds are known, and uncertainty to those cases where odds are not known. Risk is a preferable basis for decision making, but life often presents decision makers with cases of uncertainty. The issue is further complicated in

9、that perfectly rational decision makers may have radically different approaches to risk. Qualitative risk management depends a great deal on managerial attitude towards risk. Different rational individuals are likely to have different response to risk avoidance, which usually is inversely related to

10、 return, thus leading to a tradeoff decision. Research into cognitive psychology has found that managers are often insensitive to probability estimates of possible outcomes, and tend to ignore possible events that they consider to be unlikely.5 Furthermore, managers tend to pay little attention to u

11、ncertainty involved with positive outcomes.6 They tend to focus on critical performance targets, which makes their response to risk contingent upon context.7 Some approaches to theoretical decision making prefer objective treatment of risk through quantitative scientific measures following normative

12、 ideas of how humans should make decisions. Business involves an untheoretical construct, however, with high levels of uncertainty （data not available） and consideration of multiple （often conflicting） factors, making qualitative approaches based upon perceived managerial risk more appropriate. Beca

13、use accurate measures of factors such as probability are often lacking, robust strategies （more likely to enable effective response under a wide range of circumstances） are often attractive to risk managers. Strategies are efficient if they enable a firm to deal with operational risks efficiently re

14、gardless of major disruptions. Strategies are resilient if they enable a firm to keep operating despite major disruptions. Supply chain risk can arise from many sources, including the following:8 Political events Product availability Distance from source Industry capacity Demand fluctuation Changes

15、in technology Changes in labor markets Financial instability Management turnover Risk Avoidance The oldest form of risk avoidance is probably insurance, purchasing some level of financial security from an underwriter. This focuses on the financial aspects of risk, and is reactive, providing some rec

16、overy after a negative experience. Insurance is not the only form of risk management used in supply chains. Delta Airlines insurance premiums for terrorism increased from $2 million in 2001 to $152 million in 2002.9 Insurance focuses on financial risks. Other major risks include loss of customers due to supply change disruption. Supply chain risks can be buffered b