价格形态百科菱形2.docx

价格形态百科菱形2.docx

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价格形态百科菱形2

11、DiamondTopsandBottoms

RESULTSSNAPSHOT

DiamondTops

Appearance

Diamondpatternformsafteranupwardpricetrend.

ReversalOrConsolidation

Short-term（upto3months）bearishreversal

FailureRate

25%

AverageDecline

21%,withmostlikelydeclinebeing20%

VolumeTrend

Downwarduntilbreakout

Pullbacks

59%

Percentagemeetingpredictedpricetarget

79%

Seealso

Head-and-ShouldersTops

DiamondBottoms

Appearance

Diamondpatternformsafteradownwardpricetrend..

ReversalOrConsolidation

Short-tointermediate-term（upto6months）bullishreversal

FailureRate

13%

AverageDecline

35%,withmostlikelyrisebeing15%

VolumeTrend

Downwarduntilbreakout

Throwbacks

43%

Percentagemeetingpredictedpricetarget

95%

Seealso

Head-and-ShouldersBottoms

TheResultsSnapshotshowstheimportantresultsofdiamondtopsandbottoms.Inappearance,theonlydifferencebetweenthetwodiamondpatternsisthepricetrendleadingtotheformation.Fordiamondtops,thepriorpricetrendisupward,whereasdiamondbottomshavepricetrendsthatleaddowntotheformation.

钻石顶和底外观一样，区别在于形态之前的走势，钻石顶之前价格是上涨趋势；钻石底之前的价格走势是下跌趋势。

Theperformanceofthetwotypesissimilar.Bothactasreversalsofdieprevailingpricetrendwithavolumetrendthatdiminishesovertime.Volumeonthedayofthebreakoutisalsohigh.

二者的表现也类似，都是之前去世的反转，并且成交量呈下降趋势。

不过突破时成交量随之爆发。

Thefailureratefortops,at25%,ismorethandoubletherateforbottoms.Iconsiderfailureratesabove20%tobealarming,soyoumightconsidertopsunreliable.

钻石顶的失败率25%，高于基准，可以认为钻石顶是不可靠的。

钻石底的13%合格。

Theaveragedecline（21%）andrise（35%）isaboutwhatyouwouldexpectforreversals,withbottomsabitshyofdieusual40%riseforbullishformations.However,themostlikelydeclinefortopsisneartheaverage,suggestingthattherearefewlargedeclinestodistorttheaverage.Diamondbottoms,withalikelyriseofjust15%,arewellawayfromthe35%averagegain.Thissuggeststhereareahighnumberofformationswithsmallergainsthatbalanceafewlargerones.

上涨35%，略低于正常的牛市形态的40%；下跌21%合格。

Tour

Whatdoesadiamondtoporbottomlooklike?

Figure11.1showsagoodexampleofadiamondtop.Afterrisingsteadilysincemid-February,thestockjumps11/2pointsonApril20.Volumeonthatdayiswellaboveaverage.Then,thestockformshigherhighsandlowerlows,asifitistracingabroadeningtoppattern.Volumediminishesthroughouttheearlypatterndevelopment.Then,thingsreverse.Thethirdminorhighcallsthetopandpricesdecline.Theminorlowsbeginmovinghigherevenasthetopsaredescending.Thisphaseofdiepatternlookslikeasymmetricaltriangle.However,volumecontinuesreceding,albeitatanirregularrate.

PricesbreakdownoutofthepatternonJune8accompaniedbyvolumethatisaboutaverage.Pricesmeandersidewaysforabout2weeksbeforeplungingandretracingallthegainssincethemid-April,1-dayrise.

Thepatternisadiamondtop;itsignalsareversaloftheprevailingpricetrend.ThechartinFigure11.1showsthetypicalbehaviorofatop:

Pricesreturntothelevelbeforethediamondbegins.Inthisregard,thereversalstandsoutlikeasorethumb.Ofcourse,notalltopsactthisway.Somesignalareversaloftheprimarytrendandpricesnotonlyretracetheirrecentgainsbutcontinuemovingdown.

Thediamondbottom,showninFigure11.2,issimilartothetopversionwiththeexceptionoftheprevailingpricetrend.InFigure11.2,pricesaretrendingdowntowardthediamondbottom.InFigure11.1,pricesaretrendingupwardbeforethestartoftheformation.

Thediamondbottombeginsbywideningoutandtracinghigherhighsandlowerlows,thentheprocessreverses.Thepricerangenarrowsuntilthebreakoutoccurs.

Volumethroughouttheformationisdiminishing.Thebreakoutusuallysportsasignificantriseinvolume.Figure11.2showshighvolumeonthebreakoutwhenpricesgapthroughthediamondboundary.Inlessthan3months,thestockclimbsover20%toahighof221/4.

IdentificationGuidelines

Table11.1liststheidentificationguidelinesfordiamondtopsandbottoms.ConsiderthediamondtoppicturedinFigure11.3.Theshort-termpricetrendisupjustbeforetheformation,leadingtotheminorhighontheleft.Thenpricesdeclineandformaminorlowbeforemovinghigheragain.InlateSeptember,pricesreachanewhighbeforecascadingdownwardtofinishbelowthepriorminorlow.Again,pricesriseupandformanotherminorhighbeforebreakingdownthroughtheupwardtrendlineontheright.ThefluctuationsofminorhighsandlowsformadiamondshapewhenthepeaksandvalleysconnectsuchasthatshowninFigure11.3.Noticethatthediamondisnotsymmetrical;irregulardiamondshapesarecommonfordiamonds.

Thevolumetrendisreceding,especiallyinthelatterhalfoftheformationwhenthepricerangeisnarrowing（andthechartpatternresemblesasymmetricaltriangle）.Thebreakoutvolumeisusuallyhighbutisnotaprerequisitetoaproperlybehaveddiamond.InFigure11.3,thevolumeonthebreakoutdayandsucceedingdaysistepidatbestbuttrendupwardaspricesfall.

Thepatternisahead-and-shoulderstop,withtheleftshoulder,head,andrightshouldermarkedonFigure11.3.Thevolumepatternistypicalforahead-and-shoulderstop,withtherightshouldervolumevastlydiminishedwhencomparedtotheleftshoulderorheadvolume.Shouldyoulocateadiamondpatternanddiscoverthatitmaybeahead-and-shoulderstop,donotworry.Inbothcases,theformationisbearish.Whensuchacollisionoccurs,choosetheformationthatgivesyouthemoreconservativeperformanceresults（seethemeasurerule）.

图11.3中也是头肩顶形态。

而且成交量也是典型的头肩顶模式，右肩成交量相对于头和左肩锐减。

如果钻石型太悲识别为头肩顶怎么办？

没关系，两种形态都是看跌形态，一旦冲突，选择保守的那个。

Supportandresistancefordiamondtopscommonlyappearatthetopoftheformation,asseeninFigure11.4.Thediamondreversalformsaresistancelevel,repellingpricesduringtheriseinMarchandApril1993,andisnotpierceduntilayearlater.AcongestionzoneformsinOctober1993andlaststhroughMarchofthefollowingyearbeforepricesclimbconvincinglyabovetheresistancearea.Eventhen,duringAprilandMay1994,pricesarebuoyedbythesupportzoneat31createdayearandahalfearlier.

钻石形态的支撑和阻力作用发生在其最高点，如图11.4所示。

Figure11.5showsadiamondbottom.Thepricetrendisdownwardfornearly2months,leadingtotheformation.Pricesreboundslightlyandtherangewidensashigherhighsandlowerlowsappear.Thenthetideturnsandtherangenarrows;higherlowsfollowlowerhighs.Thediamondpatterntakesshapeafterconnectingtheboundariesofthepricemovements.Tradingvolumethroughouttheformationisreceding.Thisistypicalbutnotaprerequisiteforawell-formeddiamondbottom.Asindiamondtops,therearewidevariationsinthevolumepattern.Overall,however,thevolumetrenddiminishesovertimeuntilthebreakout,thenvolumeusuallyjumpsupward.Figure11.5showsthatbreakoutvolumeisfourtimesthepriordaybutisjustslightlyaboveaverageforthestock.

Figure11.6illustratesthesupportareaoftenpromotedbydiamondbottoms.Thefigureshowssupportatthe$10levelonaweeklyscale.Althoughsupportvariesfromdiamondtodiamond,whenitappearsafteradiamondbottom,itisusuallynearthebaseoftheformation.Anotherareaofsupportcommonlyappearswhenthestockthrowsbacktothelevelofthebreakout.Figure11.6showsanexampleofthis.Afterclimbingawayfromtheformationafterthebreakout,astocksometimespauses,reversescourse,andheadslower.Supportmeetspricesthatdeclineintotheformationarea,usuallystoppingbrieflynearthebreakoutprice,thenpricesturnaroundagainandheadbackup.Thisthrowbacktotheformationhappensmorethanathirdofthetime（43%）andrepresentsanotheropportunitytoinitiateatradeoraddtoaposition.

FocusonFailures

Notalldiamondtopsandbottomsworkoutasexpected.Figure11.7showsadiamondtopthatfailstobreakoutdownward.AsinFigure11.1,Iwouldexpectthestocktoreturntoitsjump-offpoint,thatis,the108level.Instead,thestockbreaksoutupwardandcontinuesmovinghigheruntilitreachesahighof1273/4.Themove,whichoccurslessthan2weeksafterthebreakout,signalsapeakforthestock.Fromthatpoint,itisalldownhill.InearlyApril1994,thestocktouchesbottomat921/2,wellbelowthebreakoutpriceof1183/8.Ifyousoldthestockbeforethebreakout,youmaybeupsetthatitcontinueshigher,buteventuallyyourtacticpaysoff.Thestockdeclines22%fromthebreakoutlowtodieultimatelowin1year.

不是所有的钻石形态都按预想的走势行进。

图11.7是一个失败的钻石顶。

根据钻石形态，我预计股票会返回起跳点108。

结果，股票向上突破在之后的两周继续走高至1273/4。

Isthereareasonthestockcontinueshigher?

Certainlythebreakoutvolumeisnotsupportiveofanupwardmove.Althoughvolumeonthedayofthebreakoutis69%abovethepriorday,thereisnosignificantvolumespikeshownonthechart（translation:

breakoutvolumeisnotaboveaverage）.Thisweakvolumeisunusualbutnotunheardof.Theweakvolumebreakoutanddecreasingvolumetrendoverthenextweekorso,evenaspricesclimb,isawarningthattheupwardmomentumisrunningoutofsteam.

为什么股票会继续走高？

显然突破时的成交量不支持向上运动。

尽管突破时成交超过前一天的69%，但仍不够大，难以称得上爆发。

往后一周的下降的成交量走势以及突破时的虚弱成交都说明价格尽管仍在上涨，但动力已明显不足。

AlthoughitisnotclearfromlookingatFigure11.7,thevolumetrend,measuredbytheslopeofalinearregressionlineofvolume,isdownward.Thisistypicalformostdiamondtopsandbottomsbutoffersnocluetotheeventualfailureofthissituation.Icanseenoreasonwhythisdiamondfailstobreakoutdownward.Thelessonisthatyoushouldwaitforthebreakoutbeforetradingyourposition.

我找不到钻石顶为何没有向下突破，这个案