Economics AZ 经济学术语.docx

Economics AZ 经济学术语.docx

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EconomicsAZ经济学术语

Bank

Startingoutasplacesthatwouldguardyour money,banksbecamethemainsourceofcreditcreation.Increasingly,however,borrowersareturningtothe financialmarkets andtonon-savingsinstitutions,suchascredit-cardcompaniesandconsumer-financefirms,whentheyneedaloan.Thisisreducingtheprofitabilityoftraditionalbanklendingandhasledmanybankstoenternewareasofbusiness,suchasselling insurance policiesandmutualfunds.Increasingly,too,traditionalbanksaresellingoffparcelsoftheirloansinthefinancialmarketsbyaprocesscalled securitisation.

Whatthemostefficientsplitisbetweenbanklendingandothersortsoflendingisdebatable.EconomistsargueendlesslyaboutwhetheraneconomysuchastheUnitedStates,inwhichfirmsrelymoreheavilyonthe equity and debt marketsthanonbankstofundtheirinvestment,isbetterthanonesuchas,say,Germany,inwhichbankshavetraditionallybeenthemainsourceofcorporatefinance.

Bankscomeinmanydifferentforms.Commercialbanks,alsoknownasretailbanks,caterdirectlyforthegeneralpublicandlendto（mostlysmallandmedium-sized）firms.Inthepast,theydidsolargelythroughanetworkofbankbranches,althoughincreasinglythesearegivingwaytoatmmachines,thetelephoneandtheInternet.Wholesalebankslargelytransactwithotherbanksandfinancialinstitutions.Investmentbanks,alsoknownasmerchantbanks,concentrateonraisingmoneyforcompaniesfromprivateinvestorsorinthefinancialmarkets,byfindingbuyersfortheirequityandcorporate bonds.Universalbanksdomostoralloftheaboveincluding,throughbancassurance,sellinginsurance.ThesebankshavelongbeenafeatureofcontinentalEuropeaneconomies.However,intheUnitedStatesfinanciallawssuchastheGlass-SteagallActhaveseparateddifferentformsofbankingfromeachotherandkeptbanksoutoftheinsurancebusiness.Theselawswereabolishedin1999,althoughduringtheprecedingcoupleofdecadesregulatorseffectivelydismantledthembychangingthewaytheywereapplied.Evenso,becauseoftheseandotherlaws,whichformanyyearsstoppedbanksfromoperatingacrossstateborders,theUnitedStateshasfarmorelendinginstitutionsthanothercountries.In2003therewereoverfourlendinginstitutionsper100,000peopleintheUnitedStates,comparedwithfewerthanoneper100,000intheUKandFrance.

Behaviouraleconomics

Abranchof economics thatconcentratesonexplainingtheeconomicdecisionspeoplemakeinpractice,especiallywhentheseconflictwithwhatconventionaleconomictheorypredictstheywilldo.Behaviouriststrytoaugmentorreplacetraditionalideasofeconomicrationality（homoeconomicus）withdecision-makingmodelsborrowedfrompsychology.Accordingtopsychologists,peoplearedisproportionatelyinfluencedbyafearoffeelingregretandwilloftenforgobenefitseventoavoidonlyasmallriskoffeelingtheyhavefailed.Theyarealsopronetocognitivedissonance,oftenholdingontoabeliefplainlyatoddswithnewevidence,usuallybecausethebeliefhasbeenheldandcherishedforalongtime.Thenthereisanchoring:

peopleareoftenoverlyinfluencedbyoutsidesuggestion.Peopleapparentlyalsosufferfromstatusquobias:

theyarewillingtotakebiggergamblestomaintainthestatusquothantheywouldbetoacquireitinthefirstplace.

Traditional utility theoryassumesthatpeoplemakeindividualdecisionsinthecontextofthebigpicture.Butpsychologistshavefoundthattheygenerallycompartmentalise,oftenonsuperficialgrounds.Theythenmakechoicesaboutthingsinoneparticularmentalcompartmentwithouttakingaccountoftheimplicationsforthingsinothercompartments.

Thereislotsofevidencethatpeoplearepersistentlyandirrationallyoverconfident.Theyarealsovulnerabletohindsightbias:

oncesomethinghappenstheyoverestimatetheextenttowhichtheycouldhavepredictedit.Manyofthesetraitsarecapturedin prospecttheory,whichisattheheartofmuchofbehaviouraleconomics.

Bonds

Gentlemenpreferbonds,punnedAndrewMellon,anAmericantycoon.Abondisan interest-bearing security issuedbygovernments,companiesandsomeotherorganisations.Bondsareanalternativewayfortheissuertoraisecapitaltosellingsharesortakingouta bankloan.Likesharesinlistedcompanies,oncetheyhavebeenissuedbondsmaybetradedontheopenmarket.Abond's yield isthe interestrate （orcoupon）paidonthebonddividedbythebond'smarket price.Bondsareregardedasalower risk investment. government bonds,inparticular,arehighlyunlikelytomisstheirpromisedpayments.Corporatebondsissuedbyblue-chip"investmentgrade"companiesarealsounlikelytodefault;thismightnotbethecasewithhigh-yield"junk"bondsissuedby firms withlesshealthyfinancials.（See yieldcurve.）

Businesscycle

Boomandbust.Thelong-runpatternofeconomic growth and recession.AccordingtotheCentreforInternationalBusinessCycleResearchatColumbiaUniversity,between1854and1945theaverageexpansionlasted29monthsandtheaveragecontraction21months.Sincethesecondworldwar,however,expansionshavelastedalmosttwiceaslong,anaverageof50months,andcontractionshaveshortenedtoanaverageofonly11months.Overtheyears,economistshaveproducednumeroustheoriesofwhyeconomicactivityfluctuatessomuch,noneofthemparticularlyconvincing.AKitchincyclesupposedlylasted39monthsandwasduetofluctuationsincompanies'inventories.TheJuglarcyclewouldlast8-9yearsasaresultofchangesin investment inplantandmachinery.Thentherewasthe20-yearKuznetscycle,allegedlydrivenbyhouse-building,and,perhapsthebest-knowntheoryofthemall,the50-yearkondratieffwave. hayek tangledwith keynes overwhatcausedthebusinesscycle,andwonthe nobelprizeforeconomics forhistheorythatvariationsinaneconomy's output dependedonthesortofcapitalithad.Takingaquitedifferenttack,inthelate1960sArthurOkun,aneconomicadvisertopresidentsKennedyandJohnson,proclaimedthatthebusinesscyclewas"obsolete".Ayearlater,theAmericaneconomywasinrecession.Again,inthelate1990s,someeconomistsclaimedthattechnologicalinnovationand globalisation meantthatthebusinesscyclewasathingofthepast.Alas,theyweresoonprovedwrong.

Capitalism

Thewinner,atleastfornow,ofthebattleofeconomic'isms'.Capitalismisafree-marketsystembuiltonprivateownership,inparticular,theideathatownersof CAPITAL havePROPERTYRIGHTS thatentitlethemtoearna PROFIT asarewardforputtingtheircapitalat RISK insomeformofeconomicactivity.Opinion（andpractice）differsconsiderablyamongcapitalistcountriesaboutwhatrolethestateshouldplayintheeconomy.Buteveryoneagreesthat,attheveryleast,forcapitalismtoworkthestatemustbestrongenoughtoguaranteepropertyrights.AccordingtoKarl MARX,capitalismcontainstheseedsofitsowndestruction,butsofarthishasprovedamoreaccuratedescriptionofMarx'sprogeny, COMMUNISM.

Centralbank

Aguardianofthemonetarysystem.Acentralbanksetsshort-term INTERESTRATES andoverseesthehealthofthe FINANCIALSYSTEM,includingbyactingas LENDEROFLASTRESORT tocommercialbanksthatgetintofinancialdifficulties.TheFederalReserve,thecentralbankoftheUnitedStates,wasfoundedin1913.TheBankofEngland,knownaffectionatelyasthe'OldLadyofThreadneedleStreet',wasestablishedin1694,26 yearsafterthecreationoftheworld'sfirstcentralbankinSweden.Withthebirthofthe EURO in1999,the MONETARYPOLICY powersofthecentralbanksof11 Europeancountriesweretransferredtoanew EUROPEANCENTRALBANK,basedinFrankfurt.

Duringthe1990stherewasatrendtomakecentralbanksindependentfrompoliticalinterventionintheirday-to-dayoperationsandallowthemtosetinterestrates.Independentcentralbanksshouldbeabletoconcentrateonthelong-termneedsofaneconomy,whereaspoliticalinterventionmaybeguidedbytheshort-termneedsofthe GOVERNMENT.Intheory,anindependentcentralbankshouldreducetheriskof INFLATION.Somecentralbanksarelegallyrequriedtosetinterestratessoastohitanexplicit inflationtarget.Politiciansareoftentemptedtoexploitapossibleshort-termtrade-offbetweeninflationandUNEMPLOYMENT,eventhoughthelong-termconsequenceofeasingpolicyinthiswayis（mosteconomistssay）thattheunemploymentratereturnstowhatyoustartedwithandinflationishigher.Anindependentcentralbank,becauseitdoesnothavetoworryaboutpersuadinganelectoratetovoteforit,ismorelikelytoactinthebestlong-runinterestsoftheeconomy.

ChicagoSchool

Aferventlyfree-marketeconomicphilosophylongassociatedwiththeUniversityofChicago.Attimes,especiallywhen KEYNESIANECONOMICS wastheorthodoxyinmuchoftheworld,theChicagoSchoolwasregardedasabastionofunworldlyextremism.However,fromthelate1970sitcametoberegardedasmainstreambymanyandChicagotrainedeconomistsoftenplayedacrucialpartintheimplementationofpoliciesoflow INFLATIONandmarket LIBERALISATION thatswepttheworldduringthe1980sand1990s.By2003,boastedtheUniversityofChicago,some22ofthe49thenwinnersofthe NOBELPRIZEFORECONOMICS hadbeenfacultymembers,studentsorresearchersthere.

Creditcrunch

When BANKS suddenlystoplending,or BOND market LIQUIDITY evaporates,usuallybecausecreditorshavebecomeextremely RISKAVERSE.

Comparativeadvantage

PaulSamuelson,oneofthe20thcentury'sgreatesteconomists,onceremarkedthattheprincipleofcomparativeadvantagewastheonlybigideathat ECONOMICS hadprodu