JosephStiglitz关于中国的演讲.docx

JosephStiglitz关于中国的演讲.docx

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JosephStiglitz关于中国的演讲

Inhisspeech,titled"ChinaandGlobalization",StiglitzsaidthatmanypeoplehopedChinawouldsavetheworldfromaneconomicslow-down."ThefactisthatChinaisamajorengineoftheworldeconomyanditcanmakeupfordeficienciesoftheUnitedStates,butweshouldalsoseethatChinaistryingtopreventeconomicoverheatingandinflation."

JosephStiglitz:

CrisisAsBadAsGreatDepressionOrWorseBySteveWatson

TwotimeNobel-prizewinnerandformerchiefeconomistoftheWorldBank,JosephStiglitzsays“youhavetobeinfantasylandtosaythateverythingisfine.”

TwotimeNobel-prizewinnerandformerchiefeconomistoftheWorldBank,JosephStiglitzhaswarnedthatthecurrentfinancialcrisiswillcontinueforatleastanothereighteenmonthsandinmanywaysrepresentsaworsesituationthantheonefacedbyAmericansduringthegreatdepressionofthe1930s.

‘Youcanpaperthingsoverforawhilebuteventuallyyouhavetofacereality.’StiglitztoldthenationallysyndicatedAlexJonesshowyesterday.

‘Thisisclearlythemostseriousproblemsincethegreatdepressionandinsomewaysworseintermsofthefinancialinstitutions.’Stiglitzcommented,referringtothefactthatlendersareunwillingtotakeriskstofinanceeachotherbecausetheynolongerhavecompleteaccesstotheirownundertakingsletalonethoseofotherinstitutions.

‘Thereason,inpart,isthatwhilesomeofthesameproblemsthatoccurredduringthegreatdepressionandhaveoccurredsince,suchasexcessiveleverage,pyramidschemes,bubbles,havehappenedbefore,thesocalledinnovationofWallStreet,thefinancialinnovations,thatweresupposedtomanagerisk,createdakindofnontransparencythatisnowsogreatthatnooneknowsexactlythemagnitudeoftherisktheyface.’

‘Itisparticularlybadbecauseourfinancialinstitutionsarebasedontrust,youputthemoneyinthebankandyoutrustthatyoucangetyourmoneyout,sotrustisabsolutelyessentialforthefunctioningofourfinancialmarketsandthefunctioningofoureconomy.’hecontinued.

‘Theproblemisthatmuchofthenewsonwhatisgoingoninthefinancialmarketscomesfromthosewhoaremakingmoneyoutofthefinancialmarkets.SoifyouwereoneofthepeopleinvolvedwithLehmanBrothersor,you’regoingtobetalkinguptheeconomy.TheheadofLehmanBrotherswasquotedlastAprilassayingwehaveturnedthecorner,theeconomyisontheuptick.Andthesamethinggoesforthepresidentandthesecretaryoftreasury.’

‘Thefactisthattheyareinvolvedinsalesmanship.’

Describingthecurrentsituationasa‘topdowncrisis’,Stiglitzalsocitedthe$3trillioncostoftheIraqwarasakeyfactorintheeconomicdownturn,sayingithasincreasedthebudgetdeficitandconsumedresourcesthatwouldotherwisepromotegrowth.

‘ThisisthefirstwarinAmericanhistorythathasbeentotallyfinancedonthecreditcard…Forthelastfiveyearsasthewarhasgoneonwehavebeenadebteconomy.Itisthefirstwarsincetherevolutionarywarthatwehavehadtoturntoforeignerstofinance,40%ofournationaldebtisnowbeingfinancedbyforeigners…Evenaswewentintothewarwehadabigdeficit,andyetthepresidentcalledfortaxcutsforuppermiddleclassAmericans.’hesaid.

“Andthereisanotherleveloftrust,thoseinothercountrieshavetohavetrustthattheAmericaneconomyisworkingwell,theyhavetotrustthatwhenthepresidentsayseverythingisgoingwell,itis.Thisadministrationhasreallyburnedthattrust,thepresidentsaidthereisnoproblem,there’sjustafewtoomanyhousesbeenbuilt.Wellifthatisthelevelofanalysistheisgivingaboutthenatureofitseconomicproblems,nowondereverybodyaroundtheworldislosingconfidence.”

Stiglitzisnostrangertopositioninghimselfinoppositiontotheestablishmentontheeconomicfront.InOctober2001hecausedcontroversywhenheexposedrampantcorruptionwithintheandblewthewhistleontheirnefariousmethodsofinducingcountriestofallundertheirdebtbeforestrippingthemofsovereigntyandhollowingouttheireconomies.

‘ItisclearthattheBushadministrationisnotrespondingtotheseproblems,partlybecausetheproblemsareoftheirownmaking.’Stiglitzasserted.

Overthenexttwelvemonths,Stiglitzpredictsthathousepriceswillcontinuetofall,moremortgageswillgointoforeclosureandmorefinancialfirmswillbeputintocrisis.

‘IamparticularlyworriedaboutwhatIcallthe‘realeconomy’.Basicallywhenthefinancialsystemstartsgettingweak,itisnotinapositiontoprovidecredit,toprovideloans,toprovidemortgagesandthatmeansinturnthathousingpricesaregoingtofallfurther,businessesaregoingtocontract,unemploymentisgoingtogrowanditisadownwardviciouscycle…Idon’twanttobeobsessivelypessimisticbutyouhavetobeinfantasylandtosaythateverythingisfine,andeventosaythatwehaveturnedthecorner.We’restillinthedownwardphaseofthiseconomiccycle.Weshouldnotanticipateemergingfromthisforayearandahalforlonger.’

Inalongtermprediction22monthsago,StiglitztoldlistenersoftheAlexJonesshowthathebelievedaglobaleconomiccrashwouldoccurwithin2years.Withmajorfinancialinstitutionsnowfoldingeveryweek,otherstoutingmergersjusttostayafloatandstockscontinuallyplummetingonadailybasisitseemsthatpredictioniscomingtopass.

Stiglitzstressedthatinordertoemergefromthecrisis,theeconomyneedsastimulus,thatreallyworks,consistingofincreasedaidforlocalgovernment,strongerunemploymentinsuranceandmoreinvestmentininfrastructure.

‘Iwouldtakeadvantageofthisparticulartimeinordertostimulateoureconomyinwaysthatprovidethebasisofourlongertermeconomicgrowth.Ifoureconomyisgrowingthenwewillbebetterabletomanagesomeofthisfinancialturmoil.’heconcluded

GlobalCrisis--MadeinAmerica

JosephE.Stiglitz,65:

Itshouldcomeasnosurpriseinaworldofglobalizationthatit'snotjustthegoodthingsthatmovemoreeasilyacrossborders,butthebadthingsaswell.Now,Americahasexporteditsdownturntotheworld.

Aglobalfinancialcrisisrequiresaglobalsolution.Uncoordinatedmacro-economicpolicies,forinstance,havecontributedtoEurope’sproblems.WhentheEuropeanCentralBankrefusedtolowerinterestratesearlierthisyear,focusedasitwasonthethreatofinflation,whileAmerica'sdid,focusedontheimpendingdownturn,itledtoastrongereuro.ThisinturncontributedtoEurope'sdownturn,thoughitmadeAmerica'sGDPnumberslookbetterforawhile.Now,Europe'sdownturnisricochetingbackonAmerica:

Europe’sweaknessesarecontributingtoAmerica's.

JosephE.Stiglitz,65,wontheNobelPrizeineconomicsin2001forhiscontributiontoanalysesoftherelationshipbetweenmarketsandinformationuncertainties.HeiswidelycitedandwritesapopularcolumnfortheNewYorker.

Thesamehashappenedwhenitcomestoregulation.Totoogreatextent,therehasbeenaracetothebottominaccordancewiththemyththatderegulationbreedsinnovation.Instead,theinnovationwasgreatestwhenitcametogettingaroundtheregulationsdesignedtoensuregoodinformationandasafeandsoundfinancialsystem.

Financialmarketsaresupposedtobeameanstoanend--amoreprosperousandstableeconomyasaresultofgoodallocationofresourcesandbettermanagementofrisk.Butinstead,financialmarketsdidn'tmanagerisk,theycreatedit.Theydidn'tenableAmerica'sfamiliestomanagetheriskofvolatileinterestrates,andnowmillionsarelosingtheirhomes.Furthermore,theymisallocatedhundredsofbillionsofdollar.

TheHumanToll

Theconsequencesofthesemistakeswillrunintothetrillions--notjustthemoneythatisbeingspentonthebailouts,buttheshortfallbetweenglobaleconomicpotentialgrowthandactualperformance.

Beyondthis,ofcourse,isthehumantoll--familieswhoselifedreamsaredestroyedastheylosetheirhomes,theirjobs,andtheirlifesavings.Ifwearetomaintainglobalfinancialliberalization,withfinancialproductsmovingeasilyacrossborders,wemustbesurethattheseproductsaresafeandthatthefinancialinstitutionswhoaresellingthemcanstandbehindtheproductstheycreate.

Financialmarketregulators,atboththenationalandinternationallevel,havefailed.Toalargeextent,BaselII,thenewframeworkofbankregulation,wasbasedonself-regulation,itselfanoxymoron.Bankshaveshownthattheyarenotuptothetaskofmanagingtheirownrisk.Buteveniftheyhad,thereisthemorefundamentalproblemofsystemicrisk.

Thecurrentglobalfinancialarchitecturehasn'tbeenworkingwell.Butmorethanthat,itisunfair,especiallytothedevelopingcountries.Theywillbeamongtheinnocentvictimsofthisglobalcrisisthatwearsthe“madeinAmerica”label.Evencountrieswhichhavedoneeverythingright--thosewhichhavemanagedtheireconomywithfarbetterregulationandbettermacro-economicprudencethantheUS--willsufferasaresultofAmerica'smistakes.Worse,theInternationalMonetaryFundhas--atleastinthepast--demandedpro-cyclicalpolicies（raisinginterestratesandtaxes,loweringexpenditureswhenaneconomygoesintoarecession）,whileEuropeandAmericadojusttheopposite.Theresultisthatcapitalfleesdevelopingcountriesintimesofcrisis,reinforcingtheviciouscycle.

FlawedGovernanceStructure

Thereismountingevidencethatthedevelopingcountriesmayrequiremassiveamountsofmoney,amountsthatarebeyondthecapacityoftheIMF.ThesourcesofliquidfundsareinAsiaandtheMiddleEast.Butwhyshouldtheyturntheirhardearned