TIME4.docx

TIME4.docx

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TIME4

ATrillionforEurope,WithDoubtsAttached

LikethegiantfinancialbailoutannouncedbytheUnitedStatesin2008,thesweepingrescuepackageannouncedbyEuropeeasedfearsofamarketcollapsebutleftabigquestion:

willitworklongterm?

PetrosGiannakouris/AssociatedPress

AnemployeeoftheGreekParliamentcarriescopiesofproposedpensionreformsatacabinetmeetinginAthensonMonday.

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SebastienBozon/AgenceFrance-Presse—GettyImages

Jean-ClaudeTrichet,presidentoftheEuropeanCentralBank,spoketoreportersMonday,followingatwo-daymeetingofcentralbankers.

Stungbycriticismthatitwasslowandweak,theEuropeanUnionsurpassedexpectationsinarranginganearly$1trillionfinancialcommitmentforitsailingmembersovertheweekendandpavedthewayfortheEuropeanCentralBanktobeginpurchasesofEuropeandebtonMonday.

Marketsralliedaroundtheworldinresponsetotheconcerteddefenseoftheeuro,apackagethatexceededinsizetheUnitedStatesbankbailouttwoyearsago.

MajorstockindexesintheUnitedStatesroseabout4percentonMonday,whilealeadingindexofblue-chipstocksintheeurozonerosemorethan10percent.ThepremiumthatinvestorshadbeendemandingtobuyGreekbondsplunged.ButbyTuesday,thatrallyappearedtohavesputteredout,withmanyAsianmarketsdownslightly.

Andasdetailscrystallizedofthepackage’smaincomponent—apromisebytheEuropeanUnion’smemberstatestoback440billioneuros,or$560billion,innewloanstobailoutEuropeaneconomies—thewisdomofsolvingadebtcrisisbytakingonmoredebtwaschallengedbysomeanalysts.

“Lendingmoremoneytoalreadyoverborrowedgovernmentsdoesnotsolvetheirproblems,”CarlWeinberg,chiefeconomistofHighFrequencyEconomicsinValhalla,N.Y.,saidinanote.“HadweanyGreekbondsinourportfolio,wewouldnotfeelrescuedthismorning.”

SuchconcernsmaybepartofthereasontheeurofellbackwhenAmericanmarketsopened,aftersurginginAsianandEuropeantrading,toendthedayatabout$1.28.

Anotherbigissueiswhetherbailingouteconomiescreatesmoralhazard.Othercountriesmaycontinuetoskirtthekindsofactionsthatwouldlowertheirbudgetdeficitsanddebtloads—stepspainfultothepublicanddangeroustopoliticians—becausetheytoocanexpecttoberescued.

ItisclearthatEurope’sfundwillrequirethesustainedsupportofthe27nationsthatformtheEuropeanUnion—nottomentionitsrichestmember,Germany,whichhasuntilnowdeeplyopposedabailout.

Indeed,foralltheexcitementaboutthescaleoftheeffort,itisimportanttorememberthatthecorefunddoesnotnowexist.Thefund,knownasaspecialpurposevehicle,wouldraisemoneybyissuingdebtandmakingloanstosupportailingeconomies.TheEuropeancountrieswouldguaranteethatfund.

SothepackageismerelyacommitmentforthevehicletoborrowmoneyifalargeeconomylikeSpain,whichrepresents12percentoftheoutputintheeurozone,asksforassistance.TheInternationalMonetaryFundispledging250billioneurostosupporttheeffort.Sixtybillioneurosunderanexistinglendingprogrampushesthetotaltonear$1trillion.

ThefundisthereforemoreatheoreticalconstructthantheTroubledAssetReliefProgramthatwascreatedintheUnitedStates,andthatiswherethingsgettricky.

Bydefinition,ifSpaincametoapointwhereitcouldnolongerfinanceitself,interestrateswouldbeontherise.Theseveralhundredbillioneurosforthefundwouldnotonlycomeatahighcost,butwouldbringadditionalpaintoalreadyindebtedcountrieslikePortugal,France,ItalyandtheUnitedKingdom,whichbackthespecialpurposeentity,thuscompoundingtheregion’sdebtwoes.

ForDominiqueStraussKahn,theI.M.F.’sambitiousmanagingdirector,theprogramisahard-earnedvictorythatallowsthefundtoassumeacentralroleinpushingforeconomicreforminEurope.

Greece’scabinetonMondayapprovedmajorchangesinitspensionsystem,includinganincreaseintheearlyretirementageto60andthebroaderretirementageto65,aspartofathree-yearpackageofreformsimposedbythefundandtheEuropeanUnion.

Yetsomefundstaffmembershavepointedoutthat,ifanything,therescuepackageandtheI.M.F.commitmenttosupportitmightgivecountrieslikeSpainanexcusetoretreatabitfromthetoughmeasuresthathavedistinguishedIreland’sandGreece’sausterityefforts.

“ItshowsthatEuropecancometogether,”saidabankerwithclosetiestothefundwhowasnotauthorizedtospeakontherecord.ThoughittakesthepressureoffSpain,“itdoesnotaddressstructuralpressureinEurope.”

Ineffect,GermanyandotherwealthierEuropeancountriesareassumingresponsibilityforthecreditworthinessofGreece,Portugalandtheotherdebtdelinquents.

ButtheEuropeancentralgovernmentisweakandmustinventnewstructurestoadministerthepromisedaid.

“ThedebtcrisiswillchangethenatureofEuropeanmonetaryunion,”JörgKrämer,chiefeconomistatCommerzbank,wroteinanoteonMonday.“Theeurozonehasmovedawayfromamonetaryunionandtowardsatransferunion.”

Mr.Krämerwarnedthattheshiftcould“underminepoliticalsupportfortheeurozoneinthelongrun.Afterall,itisunlikelythatthecountriesreceivingsupportwillletotherspermanentlydictatetheireconomicpolicies.Moreover,votersinthecountriesgivingsupportwillnotbewillingtopermanentlygivefinancialsupporttoothercountries.”

OnMonday,Jean-ClaudeTrichet,presidentoftheEuropeanCentralBank,warnedEuropeangovernments,allofwhichwillprobablymissthebudgetdeficitgoalstheyagreedtowhentheycreatedtheeuro,thattheymustcontinuetocutgovernmentspending.

Atatimewheneconomies,fromRomaniaandHungarytoBritainandSpain,arestrugglingtomeettheirdeficitgoals,Mr.Trichet’swarningtookonextraresonance.

RomaniaandHungaryareoperatingunderI.M.F.programs,whileBritainandSpainaretryingdesperatelytopersuademarketsthattheywillnotexperiencethefinancingproblemsthathaveforcedsomanycountriesinEuropetoseekassistance.

“Forus,whatisabsolutelydecisiveisthecommitmentofgovernmentsoftheeuroareatotakeallmeasuresneededtomeettheirfiscaltargetsthisyearandintheyearsahead,”Mr.TrichettoldreportersatapressconferenceinBasel,Switzerland.

Butafter10yearsofmostlymissingfiscalguidelinesduringaworldwideeconomicboom,itremainsuncertainifmorefinger-waggingbyMr.TrichetandanewfundbackedbytheI.M.F.willbeenoughtoreturnEuropeannationstofiscalhealthastheireconomiesstagnateandsocialpressuresbuild.

JamesKanter,DavidJollyandSewellChancontributedreporting.

TheMoralLifeofBabies

NicholasNixonforTheNewYorkTimes

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Notlongago,ateamofresearcherswatcheda1-year-oldboytakejusticeintohisownhands.Theboyhadjustseenapuppetshowinwhichonepuppetplayedwithaballwhileinteractingwithtwootherpuppets.Thecenterpuppetwouldslidetheballtothepuppetontheright,whowouldpassitback.Andthecenterpuppetwouldslidetheballtothepuppetontheleft...whowouldrunawaywithit.Thenthetwopuppetsontheendswerebroughtdownfromthestageandsetbeforethetoddler.Eachwasplacednexttoapileoftreats.Atthispoint,thetoddlerwasaskedtotakeatreatawayfromonepuppet.Likemostchildreninthissituation,theboytookitfromthepileofthe“naughty”one.Butthispunishmentwasn’tenough—hethenleanedoverandsmackedthepuppetinthehead.

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NicholasNixonforTheNewYorkTimes

ThisincidentoccurredinoneofseveralpsychologystudiesthatIhavebeeninvolvedwithattheInfantCognitionCenteratYaleUniversityincollaborationwithmycolleague（andwife）,KarenWynn,whorunsthelab,andagraduatestudent,KileyHamlin,whoistheleadauthorofthestudies.Weareoneofahandfulofresearchteamsaroundtheworldexploringthemorallifeofbabies.

Likemanyscientistsandhumanists,Ihavelongbeenfascinatedbythecapacitiesandinclinationsofbabiesandchildren.Thementallifeofyounghumansnotonlyisaninterestingtopicinitsownright;italsoraises—andcanhelpanswer—fundamentalquestionsofphilosophyandpsychology,includinghowbiologicalevolutionandculturalexperienceconspiretoshapehumannature.Ingraduateschool,Istudiedearlylanguagedevelopmentandlatermovedontofairlytraditionaltopicsincognitivedevelopment,likehowwecometounderstandthemindsofotherpeople—whattheyknow,wantandexperience.

ButthecurrentworkI’minvolvedin,onbabymorality,mightseemlikeaperverseandmisguidednextstep.Whywouldanyoneevenentertainthethoughtofbabiesasmoralbeings?

FromSigmundFreudtoJeanPiagettoLawrenceKohlberg,psychologistshavelongarguedthatwebeginlifeasamoralanimals.Oneimportanttaskofsociety,particularlyofparents,istoturnbabiesintocivilizedbeings—socialcreatureswhocanexperienceempathy,guiltandshame;whocanoverrideselfishimpulsesinthenameofhigherprinciples;andwhowillrespondwithoutragetounfairnessandinjustice.ManyparentsandeducatorswouldendorseaviewofinfantsandtoddlersclosetothatofarecentOnionheadline:

“NewStudyRevealsMostChildrenUnrepentantSociopaths.”Ifchildrenentertheworldalreadyequippedwithmoralnotions,whyisitthatwehavetoworksohardtohumanizethem?

Agrowingbodyofev