拉米关于恢复人民对于贸易的信心需要完善的国内政策.docx

拉米关于恢复人民对于贸易的信心需要完善的国内政策.docx

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拉米关于恢复人民对于贸易的信心需要完善的国内政策

2008年10月29日，世贸组织总干事帕斯卡尔拉米在加州大学伯克利分校的讲座上说：

“我们知道开放贸易创造了很高的效率，鼓励改革并创造财富。

但这些并不表示开放贸易会使任何人，任何国家，在任何时间都受益。

贸易，特别是在WTO规则体系下，会创造财富。

但是WTO不能改变一个国家内部收入的不平等。

恢复人民对于贸易的信心，需要政府确保拥有完善且适当的国内政策。

”

附：

拉米演讲稿

ThankyouJohn.Distinguishedguests,facultyandespeciallystudents.

Itisagreatpleasuretobehereatoneoftheworld'sgreatestcentresoflearning—aplacewheresomanybrilliantmindscometogethertoconfrontsomeoftheworld'smostpressingproblems.Nofewerthan20membersofBerkeley'sfacultyhavewontheNobelPrize,sevenofthemstillimparttheirknowledgetothisgenerationofstudents—agenerationonwhichmuchwilldepend.Discoveriesbythesebrilliantmen—andIregrettosaythatforthemoment,allofBerkeley'sNobellaureateshavebeenmen—haveadvancedhumanunderstandinginmedicine,chemistry,theoriginsofouruniverseandthesourcesofman'sinhumanitytoman.

IamprofoundlyawareoftheauraofgeniusthatswirlsaroundBerkeley'shallowedhalls,soitiswithsometrepidationthatIbeginmylecturewithastatementthatisglaringlyobvious—weliveinperiloustimes.

Weareallnowfamiliarwiththecommentators'crythatweareinthemidstofthegreatestfinancialcrisissincethe1930s.WorldBankeconomiststellus400millionmorepeopleliveinpovertyinthedevelopingworldthanwaspreviouslythought.Roughly1.4billionpeopleinthedevelopingworldnowliveonlessthan$1.25perday.Theglaciersrecede,thepolaricecapsmeltandouroceansriseastheplanet'stemperatureincreasesataratetheNationalAcademyofSciencessayshasnotbeenseenforatleast2,000years.

Thepolicychallengesfacingtheworld'sleaderstodayareasgreatastheyhavebeenatanytimesincetheSecondWorldWar.Aspolicymakersponderthewayforward,theywouldbewellservedtolethistorybetheirguide.Historytellsusitwasthepoliticalmistakes—orinaction—ofthe1930sthattransformedafinancialcrisisintoafullblowneconomiccatastrophe.Bankswereallowedtofail.Panicwasallowedtogrow.Whenassessingthedisastrousconsequenceswhichflowedfromthesepolicymistakes,politicianspredictablyshiftedtheblametoforeigners.It'salwaysaneasyroutebecauseforeignerscan'tseekrevengeatthepollingbooth.

AmongthemostdisastrouspoliticaldecisionstakeninthewakeoftheCrashof1929wasthepassageoftheSmoot-HawleyAct,signedintolawonJune17,1930.Theideaofthisill-conceivedlegislationwastoprotectUSfarmers—anotionpopularinmanyWTOmembergovernmentstothisday.Asfarmerspressedtohavegreaterprotectionfromimports,manyotherindustriesjoinedthequeueoflobbyistsandastheyoftendo,theselobbyistssucceededingainingprotectionfortheirindustries.Dutiesofmorethan60%wereslappedon3,200importedproducts,liftingoverallaveragetariffsbyabout20%.Iftheideawastocurbimports,Smoot-Hawleywasafantasticsuccess—by1933importshadfallenfrom$4.4billionto$1.3billionwhileexportsfell69%overthatsameperiodto$1.6billion.ButtherewasanunintendedconsequencetoSmoot-Hawley—itscontributiontoaneconomicdepression.Smoot-Hawleytouchedoffadominoeffectofretaliationandcounter-retaliationamongtradingpartnerswhichprovokedaseverecontractionofinternationaltrade,depressedgrowthandrisingunemploymentaroundtheindustrialworld.From1930to1932theunemploymentratesoaredfrom8.7%to23.6%andremainedatmorethan14%fortheremainderofthedecade.

Howdidthecollapseoftradecontributetothis?

Onereasonisthatcontrarytotheconventionalwisdom,importsaregoodforyou.AgreatmanyAmericanswerethenandaretodayemployedinsectorslinkedtoimports.Partsneededformanufacturingbecamedeareriftheycouldbefoundatall.Thesoaringjoblessratewasalsoaproductoftheresponsefromothercountrieswhichwereanythingbutpleasedtobethetargetoftradesanctions.Predictably,thesecountriesretaliated.USexportstoEurope,forinstance,declinedfrom$2.3billionin1929to$784millionin1932.Globallytradecontractedby60%between1929and1932.

Theeconomiceffectsofthiscontractionarewelldocumented,butthegeopoliticalimpactshouldnotbeunderestimatedeither.Theapplicationoftradesanctionsisregardedasahostileactbythosebeingsanctioned.NooneshouldhavebeensurprisedthatCanadaorGermanyretaliatedagainstUSexports.Whatfollowedwerepoliciesinwhicheachnationwasoutforitself.TheglobaldepressionandeconomicnationalismthatensuedweresurelyamongthefactorscontributingtothegeopoliticalinstabilitythatinturnledtotheSecondWorldWar.

AsWorldWarIIwaswindingdown,governmentsmadethedecisionthattheruinousbeggar-thy-neighbourtradepoliciesimposedinthe1930scouldneverberepeated.Aninternationalsystemofco-operationinsecurity,financeanddevelopmentwascreated.TheestablishmentoftheUnitedNations,theWorldBankandtheInternationalMonetaryFundprovidedtheinternationalframeworkforaddressinginternationaltensions—betheyborderdisputes,balanceofpaymentscrisesortherebuildingofruinedstates.Tradewasmorecomplicated.Foravarietyofreasons,agreatmanyofthemtodowiththeUnitedStatesCongress,theInternationalTradeOrganizationwhichwasproposedatthe1947HavanaConferencenevergotofftheground.Instead,23countriessignedtheGeneralAgreementonTariffsandTrade,acompactwhichwaslargelyaboutregulatingglobaltradeingoods.Over60years,andeightroundsofinternationaltradenegotiations,theGATTandnowtheWTOhaveestablishedaframeworkofregulationsinwhichnationsinteractcommercially.SincetheconclusionoftheUruguayRoundin1994,theseruleshavebeenextendedtotradeinservicesandhaveexpandedintoareasofinteresttodevelopingcountries—particularlyagricultureandtextiles—thathadpreviouslybeenaddressedonlymarginally.

Economicallyspeaking,fewwoulddoubtthatthemultilateraltradingsystemhasbeenaresoundingsuccess.Globaltradehasgrown30foldinrealtermssince1948.FortheUnitedStates,merchandiseexportshaverisenfrom$13billionin1948to$1.16trillionin2007.Thegrowthinservicesexportshavebeenequallyimpressive,expandingfrom$38billionin1980to$456billionlastyear.

Today,astheUnitedStatesfacestheloomingspectreofrecession,exportgrowthhasassumedevengreaterimportance.TheFederalReserveindicatesthecountrymayalreadybeinarecession.Corporateprofitshavefallenineveryquarterthisyear.Lastmonth,retailsalesfell1.2%,thefirstdropinthreeyears.Durablegoodspurchasesaredownthelasttwoquartersandprivatedomesticinvestmenthasfallenthelastthree.Againstthisbackdrop,onesegmentoftheeconomyhasbeenroaringahead—exports.Inthesecondquarterthisyear,exportgrowthandslowingimportswereresponsibleforGDPgrowthof2.9%onanannualisedbasis.Thegrowingrelianceontradeisthecontinuationofatrendtowardamoretrade-orientedeconomy.In1970,exportsandimportscombinedweretheequivalentofjustover11%ofGDP.Lastyear,exportsalonewere12%ofGDPandcombinedwithimports,internationaltradewastheequivalentofnearly29.1%ofdomesticoutput—arecord.

Tradeflowsareafunctionofthreephenomena,economicactivity,technologicalinnovationandtheremovaloftradebarriers.

Thesharpriseinthegrowthofglobaloutputinrecentyearshasbeenmirroredbysignificantgainsintradevolume,withtradegrowthactuallyoutstrippingoutputgainsbytwotothreetimes.Inbadtimes,tradehashadastabilizingimpactontheglobaleconomy.Intimesofsloweconomicgrowthorrecession,tradehasoftencontinuedtogrow.

Technologytoohasplayedanimportantroleinincreasingtradeflows.Productivityimprovementsinproductionhaveboostedoveralloutputandledtomoretrade.Improvementsintransportationandcommunicationstechnologyhaveopenednewavenuesfortradegrowthaswell.Containerization,firstputintowidespreadcommercialusein1956byMalcolmMacLeanofSea-LandService,hadtheimmediateeffectofreducingratesofpilferageandcargodamage.Astheboxesbecamestandardized,loadingandunloadingoperationsalsobecamemuchmoreefficient.Portofficialsestimatethatcontainercargomovesmorethan20timesfasterthanbreak-bulkcargoes.

Lastly,thereisthequestionofremovingtradebarriersandthisiswheretheWTOfitsintothisequation.In1947,beforetheGATTbeganoperations,averagetariffsintheindustrialworldwerebetween20%-30%andtradewasconstrainedbyamyriadofquantitativeandexchangerestrictions.Eighttraderoundssucceededinreducingaveragetariffsonmanufacturesto4%,andquantitativerestrictionswerephasedout,atleastformanufacturedgoods.

Weknowthattradeopeningcreatesgreaterefficiencies,encouragesinnovationandgenerateswealth.Butthisdoesnotmeanthattradeopeningisgoodforeveryperson,everycountry,everytime.Thereislittlequestionthatgreatercompetitionputscompaniesandindeedentiresectorsoftheeconomyunderpressure.TherecanbenodoubtthattradeisresponsibleforsomejoblossesintheUnitedStatesandaroundtheworld.Itistruethatoverthelast60years,theshareofpeopleemployedintheUnitedStatesmanufacturinghasfallenfrom33%ofciviliannon-agriculturalemploymenttolessthan10%today.It'salsotruethatthenumberofmanufacturingjobshasfallensharply,with4millionsuchjobshavingbeenshedinthepastdecade.

Economistsagreesomeofthosejobswerelostduetointernationaltrade.Likewise,theyagreethatsomeofthewagestagnatio