德国大众东南亚汽车市场分析.pptx

德国大众东南亚汽车市场分析.pptx

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,AsiaPacific2015-Countryprofiles:

Australiaasanexample-Singapore,January8th,2007,January8th,2007,VGC/Strategy&CorporateDevelopment,ContentAustraliaSouthKoreaSingaporeTaiwanIndonesiaMalaysiaThailand,2,Australiaisalargeandslowgrowthmarketwithalowdutystructuremakingitamarketsuitabletoexport,Australia:

SummaryOneofthelargestandmostdevelopedmarketsinAsiaPacificwithmarketsizeofabout925,000units.Lowgrowthpotentialatabout2%duetohighpenetrationImportdutiesarelowatabout8%andreducingto5%by2010.FTAswithThailandandproposedFTAwithASEANandChinawillmakeAustraliamarketforexportsfromChinaorASEANThemarketismoderatelyconcentrated.Toyota,HoldenandFord,thathavelocalmanufacturingpresencesandhavehistoricallystrongposition.HoweverwithdecliningdutiesadvantageoflocalmanufacturingislimitedandshareofdomesticmanufacturedcarsisdecliningA0/A00,AandBsegmentsaccountforabout50%ofthemarket;SUVaccountsforabout23%ofthemarket,3,Australiaisalargeandslowgrowthmarketwithalowdutystructure,Source:

GlobalInsight;EIU;DFAT,Political,TradeBalanceofPayment2005,Demographic,Age15-64（%）,Totalpopulation（million）,AreaCapitalPopulationGDP（PPP）GDP/capitapppS&PratingCurrencyExchangerateInflationrate,Economic7,617,930sqkmCanberra20.6million（2006est.）683.13billion（2006est.）$33,161.71（2006est.）AA+AustralianDollar（AUD）USD1=1.31AUD2.7%（2006est.）,（39.3）（17.9）100.5（118.4）,%ofGDP（6）（2.7）15.4（18.1）,BnUSD,BoPCurrentaccountBalanceongoodsExports,fobImports,fob,Australiaispoliticallystableandelectsgovernmentbyconstitutionalmeans,4,The2leadingpoliticalpartiesbothagreeonneedforeconomicreform,onlydivergingonitspaceandsubtlepolicydifferencesMacro-economicpolicyconservativeonthewhole,withinflationlargelysubdued;fiscalbalanceconsistentlyinsurplus,PoliticalriskratingsfordoingbusinessinAustraliaLow,Australia:

EconomicsandPolitics,Australiaimposeslowtariffsonimports.AustraliaFTAconcludedwithUS,ThailandandSingaporeandFTAsarebeingnegotiatedwithASEANandChinaAustralia:

RegulatoryStructureandImplications,RegulatoryStructureandChanges,ImplicationsonAutomotiveIndustryReducingimportbarriersandFTAswillimproveattractivenessofexportstoAustraliaAustraliaisinprospectofanincreasingintegrationwithAsianandUSautomotivemarketsAutoindustryisencouragedtomakemoreinvestmentsonproduction,R&D,andexports,FTAsFTAwithNewZealand,Thailand,US,andSingaporeimportofcarsat0%dutyfromThailandandUSFTAwithChina,Malaysia,ASEANbeingnegotiatedRatesforFTAcountries:

CBU&ComponentsaretarifffreeexceptfromUSRatesforUS-builtPCwillfallfrom6.5%to0%by2010Ratesoncomponentswillfallfrom5%to0by2010ChinesegeneraltariffsonPCareat25%andmotorvehiclepartsat10%,andthoseofMalaysiaareevenhigher,TARIFFREGIMETariffforPCandpartswillfallfrom10%to5%by2010Additionaltariffon2ndhandvehiclesimport-A$12,000A10%GSTisleviedontheassessedvalueofallimportednewandusedvehiclesAdditional25%LCTisleviedoncertainimportedmodels,FOREIGNINVESTMENTREGIMEAutomotiveCompetitivenessandInvestmentScheme（ACIS）wasintroducedtoencourageinvestmentandinnovationintheautoindustryovertheperiodof2001to2015ACISisexpectedtodeliveranestimatedA$7billiontorewardtheregisteredparticipantsthroughthequarterlyissueofimportdutycredit,5,1）ForecastofSUVandpick-upsegmentsbasedonrecentgrowthrateof4%and2%respectively,GDPandPerCapita（2000-10）inUSD,MarketGrowthandPenetration（2000-10）,CAGR=4.54%,CAGR=1.94%,Unitsper1000people,CAGR=3.06%,Billions,Thousands,CAGR=3.34%,AutomotiveMarketGrowthDriversPenetrationlevelof545perthousandTheexpecteddeclineingroupofaged15-64withnearlystagnantpopulationwillslowgrowthoffirsttimepurchasersMarketgrowthisdrivenlargelyfromreplacementdemandduetotheimprovedaffordability,appreciatingAustraliandollar,reducingtariffonimportedvehiclesIncreasingfuelcostispredictedtodampen5-yearCAGRofSUVsegment,intwo-digitovertheperiodof2000to2005Pick-upgrowthwilltrenddowntostandat2-3%commensuratewithslowdownofinvestmentinroadtransport,construction,andmanufacturingsectorsofeconomySource:

EIU;ABS;ABeamanalysis,Thousandunits,Marketgrowthisdrivenlargelyfromreplacementdemandduetotheimprovedaffordability,appreciatingAustraliandollar,reducingtariffonimportedvehicles,andothernon-economicfactorsAustralia:

MarketGrowth,6,Importshavebeengrowingsteadilyduetothedecreasingtariffsonimportedvehiclesandcontributeabulkofsales,Australia:

AutomotiveTrade,Source:

UNSDComtradeDatabase;ABS,Exports,Imports,5.1,3.0,3.1,0.4,2.4,0.4,ImportsfromASEANin%,1.1,1.0,1.5,1.3,1.4,2.4,ExportstoASEANin%,ExportandImportin000units,Tradetrends,Exportsshareasaperc