德国大众东南亚汽车市场分析.pptx

1、,Asia Pacific 2015-Country profiles:Australia as an example-Singapore,January 8th,2007,January 8th,2007,VGC/Strategy&Corporate Development,ContentAustraliaSouth KoreaSingaporeTaiwanIndonesiaMalaysiaThailand,2,Australia is a large and slow growth market with a low duty structure making it a market su

2、itable to export,Australia:SummaryOne of the largest and most developed markets in Asia Pacific with market size of about 925,000 units.Low growth potential at about 2%due to high penetrationImport duties are low at about 8%and reducing to 5%by 2010.FTAs with Thailand and proposed FTA with ASEAN and

3、 China will make Australia market for exports from China or ASEANThe market is moderately concentrated.Toyota,Holden and Ford,that have local manufacturing presences and have historically strong position.However with declining duties advantage of local manufacturing is limited and share of domestic

4、manufactured cars is decliningA0/A00,A and B segments account for about 50%of the market;SUV accounts for about 23%of the market,3,Australia is a large and slow growth market with a low duty structure,Source:Global Insight;EIU;DFAT,Political,Trade Balance of Payment 2005,Demographic,Age 15-64(%),Tot

5、al population(million),AreaCapitalPopulationGDP(PPP)GDP/capita pppS&P ratingCurrencyExchange rateInflation rate,Economic7,617,930 sq km Canberra20.6 million(2006 est.)683.13 billion(2006 est.)$33,161.71(2006 est.)AA+Australian Dollar(AUD)USD1=1.31 AUD2.7%(2006 est.),(39.3)(17.9)100.5(118.4),%of GDP(

6、6)(2.7)15.4(18.1),Bn USD,BoPCurrent account Balance on goodsExports,fob Imports,fob,Australia is politically stable and elects government by constitutional means,4,The 2 leading political parties both agree on need for economic reform,only diverging on its pace and subtle policy differencesMacro-eco

7、nomic policy conservative on the whole,with inflation largely subdued;fiscal balance consistently in surplus,Political risk ratings for doing business in Australia Low,Australia:Economics and Politics,Australia imposes low tariffs on imports.Australia FTA concluded with US,Thailand and Singapore and

8、 FTAs are being negotiated with ASEAN and ChinaAustralia:Regulatory Structure and Implications,Regulatory Structure and Changes,Implications on Automotive IndustryReducing import barriers and FTAs will improve attractiveness of exports to AustraliaAustralia is in prospect of an increasing integratio

9、n with Asian and US automotive marketsAuto industry is encouraged to make more investments on production,R&D,and exports,FTAsFTA with New Zealand,Thailand,US,and Singapore import of cars at 0%duty from Thailand and USFTA with China,Malaysia,ASEAN being negotiatedRates for FTA countries:CBU&Component

10、s are tariff free except from US Rates for US-built PC will fall from 6.5%to 0%by 2010Rates on components will fall from 5%to 0 by 2010Chinese general tariffs on PC are at 25%and motor vehicle parts at 10%,and those of Malaysia are even higher,TARIFF REGIMETariff for PC and parts will fall from 10%t

11、o 5%by2010Additional tariff on 2nd hand vehicles import-A$12,000A 10%GST is levied on the assessed value of all imported new and used vehiclesAdditional 25%LCT is levied on certain imported models,FOREIGN INVESTMENT REGIMEAutomotive Competitiveness and Investment Scheme(ACIS)was introduced to encour

12、age investment and innovation in the auto industry over the period of 2001 to 2015ACIS is expected to deliver an estimated A$7 billion to reward the registered participants through the quarterly issue of import duty credit,5,1)Forecast of SUV and pick-up segments based on recent growth rate of 4%and

13、 2%respectively,GDP and Per Capita(2000-10)in USD,Market Growth and Penetration(2000-10),CAGR=4.54%,CAGR=1.94%,Units per 1000 people,CAGR=3.06%,Billions,Thousands,CAGR=3.34%,Automotive Market Growth DriversPenetration level of 545 per thousandThe expected decline in group of aged 15-64 with nearly s

14、tagnant population will slow growth of first time purchasersMarket growth is driven largely from replacement demand due to the improved affordability,appreciating Australian dollar,reducing tariff on imported vehiclesIncreasing fuel cost is predicted to dampen 5-year CAGR of SUV segment,in two-digit

15、 over the period of 2000 to 2005Pick-up growth will trend down to stand at 2-3%commensurate with slow down of investment in road transport,construction,and manufacturing sectors of economySource:EIU;ABS;ABeam analysis,Thousand units,Market growth is driven largely from replacement demand due to the

16、improved affordability,appreciating Australian dollar,reducing tariff on imported vehicles,and other non-economic factorsAustralia:Market Growth,6,Imports have been growing steadily due to the decreasing tariffs on imported vehicles and contribute a bulk of sales,Australia:Automotive Trade,Source:UNSD Comtrade Database;ABS,Exports,Imports,5.1,3.0,3.1,0.4,2.4,0.4,Imports from ASEAN in%,1.1,1.0,1.5,1.3,1.4,2.4,Exports to ASEAN in%,Export and Import in 000 units,Trade trends,Exports share as a perc