billgatested演讲稿.docx

billgatested演讲稿.docx

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billgatested演讲稿

BillGates2010年TED演讲稿

I'mgoingtotalktodayaboutenergyandclimate.

Andthatmightseemabitsurprisingbecause

myfull-timeworkatthefoundationismostlyaboutvaccinesandseeds,

aboutthethingsthatweneedtoinventanddeliver

tohelpthepooresttwobillionlivebetterlives.

Butenergyandclimateareextremelyimportanttothesepeople,

infact,moreimportantthantoanyoneelseontheplanet.

Theclimategettingworse,meansthatmanyyearstheircropswon'tgrow.

Therewillbetoomuchrain,notenoughrain.

Thingswillchangeinways

thattheirfragileenvironmentsimplycan'tsupport.

Andthatleadstostarvation.Itleadstouncertainty.Itleadstounrest.

So,theclimatechangeswillbeterribleforthem.

Also,thepriceofenergyisveryimportanttothem.

Infact,ifyoucouldpickjustonethingtolowerthepriceof,

toreducepoverty,byfar,youwouldpickenergy.

Now,thepriceofenergyhascomedownovertime.

Really,advancedcivilizationisbasedonadvancesinenergy.

Thecoalrevolutionfueledtheindustrialrevolution,

and,eveninthe1900'swe'veseenaveryrapiddeclineinthepriceofelectricity,

andthat'swhywehaverefrigerators,air-conditioning,

wecanmakemodernmaterialsanddosomanythings.

Andso,we'reinawonderfulsituationwithelectricityintherichworld.

But,aswemakeitcheaper--andlet'sgoformakingittwiceascheap--

weneedtomeetanewconstraint,

andthatconstrainthastodowithCO2.

CO2iswarmingtheplanet,

andtheequationonCO2isactuallyaverystraightforwardone.

IfyousumuptheCO2thatgetsemitted,

thatleadstoatemperatureincrease,

andthattemperatureincreaseleadstosomeverynegativeeffects.

Theeffectsontheweatherand,perhapsworse,theindirecteffects,

inthatthenaturalecosystemscan'tadjusttotheserapidchanges,

andsoyougetecosystemcollapses.

Now,theexactamountofhowyoumap

fromacertainincreaseofCO2towhattemperaturewillbe

andwherethepositivefeedbacksare,

there'ssomeuncertaintythere,butnotverymuch.

Andthere'scertainlyuncertaintyabouthowbadthoseeffectswillbe,

buttheywillbeextremelybad.

Iaskedthetopscientistsonthisseveraltimes,

dowereallyhavetogetdowntonearzero?

Can'twejustcutitinhalforaquarter?

Andtheansweristhat,untilwegetneartozero,

thetemperaturewillcontinuetorise.

Andsothat'sabigchallenge.

It'sverydifferentthansayingwe'rea12fthightrucktryingtogetundera10ftbridge,

andwecanjustsortofsqueezeunder.

Thisissomethingthathastogettozero.

Now,weputoutalotofcarbondioxideeveryyear,

over26billiontons.

ForeachAmerican,it'sabout20tons.

Forpeopleinpoorcountries,it'slessthanoneton.

It'sanaverageofaboutfivetonsforeveryoneontheplanet.

And,somehow,wehavetomakechanges

thatwillbringthatdowntozero.

It'sbeenconstantlygoingup.

It'sonlyvariouseconomicchangesthathaveevenflatteneditatall,

sowehavetogofromrapidlyrising

tofalling,andfallingallthewaytozero.

Thisequationhasfourfactors.

Alittlebitofmultiplication.

So,you'vegotathingontheleft,CO2,thatyouwanttogettozero,

andthat'sgoingtobebasedonthenumberofpeople,

theserviceseachperson'susingonaverage,

theenergyonaverageforeachservice,

andtheCO2beingputoutperunitofenergy.

So,let'slookateachoneofthese

andseehowwecangetthisdowntozero.

Probably,oneofthesenumbersisgoingtohavetogetprettyneartozero.

Nowthat'sbackfromhighschoolalgebra,

butlet'stakealook.

Firstwe'vegotpopulation.

Now,theworldtodayhas6.8billionpeople.

That'sheadeduptoaboutninebillion.

Now,ifwedoareallygreatjobonnewvaccines,

healthcare,reproductivehealthservices,

wecouldlowerthatby,perhaps,10or15percent,

butthereweseeanincreaseofabout1.3.

Thesecondfactoristheservicesweuse.

Thisencompasseseverything,

thefoodweeat,clothing,TV,heating.

Theseareverygoodthings,

andgettingridofpovertymeansprovidingtheseservices

toalmosteveryoneontheplanet.

Andit'sagreatthingforthisnumbertogoup.

Intherichworld,perhapsthetoponebillion,

weprobablycouldcutbackanduseless,

buteveryyear,thisnumber,onaverage,isgoingtogoup,

andso,overall,thatwillmorethandouble

theservicesdeliveredperperson.

Herewehaveaverybasicservice.

Doyouhavelightinginyourhousetobeabletoreadyourhomework,

and,infact,thesekidsdon't,sothey'regoingout

andreadingtheirschoolworkunderthestreetlamps.

Now,efficiency,E,theenergyforeachservice,

here,finallywehavesomegoodnews.

Wehavesomethingthat'snotgoingup.

Throughvariousinventionsandnewwaysofdoinglighting,

throughdifferenttypesofcars,differentwaysofbuildingbuildings.

therearealotofserviceswhereyoucanbring

theenergyforthatservicedownquitesubstantially,

someindividualserviceseven,bringitdownby90percent.

Thereareotherserviceslikehowwemakefertilizer,

orhowwedoairtransport,

wheretheroomsforimprovementarefar,farless.

Andso,overallhere,ifwe'reoptimistic,

wemaygetareductionofafactorofthreetoeven,perhaps,afactorofsix.

Butforthesefirstthreefactorsnow,

we'vegonefrom26billionto,atbest,maybe13billiontons,

andthatjustwon'tcutit.

Solet'slookatthisfourthfactor--

thisisgoingtobeakeyone--

andthisistheamountofCO2putoutpereachunitofenergy.

Andsothequestionis,canyouactuallygetthattozero?

Ifyouburncoal,no.

Ifyouburnnaturalgas,no.

Almosteverywaywemakeelectricitytoday,

exceptfortheemergingrenewablesandnuclear,putsoutCO2.

Andso,whatwe'regoingtohavetodoataglobalscale,

iscreateanewsystem.

Andso,weneedenergymiracles.

Now,whenIusethetermmiracle,Idon'tmeansomethingthat'simpossible.

Themicroprocessorisamiracle.Thepersonalcomputerisamiracle.

Theinternetanditsservicesareamiracle.

So,thepeopleherehaveparticipatedinthecreationofmanymiracles.

Usually,wedon'thaveadeadline,

whereyouhavetogetthemiraclebyacertaindate.

Usually,youjustkindofstandby,andsomecomealong,somedon't.

Thisisacasewhereweactuallyhavetodrivefullspeed

andgetamiracleinaprettytighttimeline.

Now,Ithought,howcouldIreallycapturethis?

Istheresomekindofnaturalillustration,

somedemonstrationthatwouldgrabpeople'simaginationhere?

IthoughtbacktoayearagowhenIbroughtmosquitos,

andsomehowpeopleenjoyedthat.

（Laughter）

Itreallygottheminvolvedintheideaof,

youknow,therearepeoplewholivewithmosquitos.

So,withenergy,allIcouldcomeupwithisthis.

Idecidedthatreleasingfireflies

wouldbemycontributiontotheenvironmentherethisyear.

Soherewehavesomenaturalfireflies.

I'mtoldtheydon'tbite,infact,theymightnotevenleavethatjar.

（Laughter）

Now,there'sallsortsgimmickysolutionslikethatone,

buttheydon'treallyadduptomuch.

Weneedsolutions,eitheroneorseveral,

thathaveunbelievablescale

andunbelievablereliability,

and,althoughthere'smanydirectionspeopleareseeking,

Ireallyonlyseefivethatcanachievethebignumbers.

I'veleftouttide,geothermal,fusion,biofuels.

Thosemaymakesomecontribution,

andiftheycandobetterthanIexpect,somuchthebetter,

butmykeypointhere

isthatwe'regoingtohavetoworkoneachofthesefive,

andwecan'tgiveupanyofthembecausetheylookdaunting,

becausetheyallhavesignificantchallenges.

Let'slookfirstattheburningfossilfuels,

eitherburningcoalorburningnaturalgas.

Whatyouneedtodothere,seemslikeitmightbesimple,butit'snot,

andthat'stotakealltheCO2,afteryou'veburnedit,goingouttheflue,

pressurizeit,createaliquid,putitsomewhere,

andhopeitstaysthere.

Nowwehavesomepilotthingsthatdothisatthe60to80percentlevel,

butgettinguptothatfullpercentage,thatwillbeverytricky,

andagreeingonwheretheseCO2quantitiesshouldbeputwillbehard,

butthetoughestonehereisthislongtermissue.

Who'sgoingtobesure?

Who'sgoingtoguaranteesomethingthatisliterallybillionsoftimeslarger

thananytypeofwasteyouthinkofintermsofnuclearorotherthings?

Thisisalotofvolume.

Sothat'satoughone.

Next,wouldbenuclear.

Italsohasthreebigproblems.

Cost,particularlyinhighlyregulatedcountries,ishigh.

Theissueofthesafety,reallyfeelinggoodaboutnothingcouldgowrong,

that,eventhoughyouhavethesehumanoperators,

thatthefueldoesn'tgetusedforweapons.

Andthenwhatdoyoudowiththewaste?

And,althoughit'snotverylarge,therearealotofconcernsaboutthat.

Peopleneedtofeelgoodaboutit.

Sothreeverytoughproblemsthatmightbesolvable,

andso,shouldbeworkedon.

Thelastthreeofthefive,I'vegroupedtogether.

Thesearewhatpeopleoftenrefertoastherenewablesources.

Andtheyactually--althoughit'sgreattheydon'trequirefuel--

theyhavesomedisadvantages.

Oneisthatthedensityofenergygatheredinthesetechnologies

isdramaticallylessthanapowerplant.

Thisisenergyfarming,soyou'retalkingaboutmanysquaremiles,

thousandsoftimemoreareathanyouthinkofasanormalenergyplant.

Also,theseareintermittentsources.

Thesundoesn'tshineallday,itdoesn'tshineeveryday,

and,likewise,thewinddoesn'tblowallthetime.

Andso,ifyoudependonthesesources,

youhavetohavesomewayofgettingtheenergy

duringthosetimeperiodsthatit'snotavailabl