TED演讲集.docx

TED演讲集.docx

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TED演讲集

TED演讲集

1.BillGates—onmosquitos,malariaandeducation

Iwrotealetterlastweektalkingabouttheworkofthefoundation,sharingsomeoftheproblems.AndWarrenBuffethadrecommendedIdothat--beinghonestaboutwhatwasgoingwell,whatwasn't,andmakingitkindofanannualthing.AgoalIhadtherewastodrawmorepeopleintoworkonthoseproblems,becauseIthinktherearesomeveryimportantproblemsthatdon'tgetworkedonnaturally.Thatis,themarketdoesnotdrivethescientists,thecommunicators,thethinkers,thegovernmentstodotherightthings.Andonlybypayingattentiontothesethingsandhavingbrilliantpeoplewhocareanddrawotherpeopleincanwemakeasmuchprogressasweneedto.

SothismorningI'mgoingtosharetwooftheseproblemsandtalkaboutwheretheystand.ButbeforeIdiveintothoseIwanttoadmitthatIamanoptimist.Anytoughproblem,Ithinkitcanbesolved.AndpartofthereasonIfeelthatwayislookingatthepast.Overthepastcentury,averagelifespanhasmorethandoubled.Anotherstatistic,perhapsmyfavorite,istolookatchildhooddeaths.Asrecentlyas1960,110millionchildrenwereborn,and20millionofthosediedbeforetheageoffive.Fiveyearsago,135millionchildrenwereborn--so,more--andlessthan10millionofthemdiedbeforetheageoffive.Sothat'safactoroftworeductionofthechildhooddeathrate.It'saphenomenalthing.Eachoneofthoselivesmattersalot.

Andthekeyreasonwewereabletoitwasnotonlyrisingincomesbutalsoafewkeybreakthroughs:

Vaccinesthatwereusedmorewidely.Forexample,measleswasfourmillionofthedeathsbackasrecentlyas1990andnowisunder400,000.Sowereallycanmakechanges.Thenextbreakthroughistocutthat10millioninhalfagain.AndIthinkthat'sdoableinwellunder20years.Why?

Wellthere'sonlyafewdiseasesthataccountforthevastmajorityofthosedeaths:

diarrhea,pneumoniaandmalaria.

SothatbringsustothefirstproblemthatI'llraisethismorning,whichishowdowestopadeadlydiseasethat'sspreadbymosquitoes?

Well,what'sthehistoryofthisdisease?

It'sbeenaseverediseaseforthousandsofyears.Infact,ifwelookatthegeneticcode,it'stheonlydiseasewecanseethatpeoplewholivedinAfricaactuallyevolvedseveralthingstoavoidmalarialdeaths.Deathsactuallypeakedatabitoverfivemillioninthe1930s.Soitwasabsolutelygigantic.Andthediseasewasallovertheworld.Aterribledisease.ItwasintheUnitedStates.ItwasinEurope.Peopledidn'tknowwhatcausedituntiltheearly1900s,whenaBritishmilitarymanfiguredoutthatitwasmosquitoes.Soitwaseverywhere.Andtwotoolshelpedbringthedeathratedown.OnewaskillingthemosquitoeswithDDT.Theotherwastreatingthepatientswithquinine,orquininederivatives.Andsothat'swhythedeathratedidcomedown.

Now,ironically,whathappenedwas,itwaseliminatedfromallthetemperatezones,whichiswheretherichcountriesare.Sowecansee:

1900,it'severywhere.1945,it'sstillmostplaces.1970,theU.S.andmostofEuropehavegottenridofit.1990,you'vegottenmostofthenorthernareas.Andmorerecentlyyoucanseeit'sjustaroundtheequator.

Andsothisleadstotheparadoxthatbecausethediseaseisonlyinthepoorercountries,itdoesn'tgetmuchinvestment.Forexample,there'smoremoneyputintobaldnessdrugsthanareputintomalaria.Now,baldness,it'saterriblething.（Laughter）Andrichmenareafflicted.Andsothat'swhythatpriorityhasbeenset.

But,malaria--eventhemilliondeathsayearcausedbymalariagreatlyunderstateitsimpact.Over200millionpeopleatanyonetimearesufferingfromit.Itmeansthatyoucan'tgettheeconomiesintheseareasgoingbecauseitjustholdsthingsbacksomuch.Now,malariaisofcoursetransmittedbymosquitoes.Ibroughtsomehere,justsoyoucouldexperiencethis.We'llletthoseroamaroundtheauditoriumalittlebit.（Laughter）There'snoreasononlypoorpeopleshouldhavetheexperience.（Laughter）（Applause）Thosemosquitoesarenotinfected.

Sowe'vecomeupwithafewnewthings.We'vegotbednets.Andbednetsareagreattool.Whatitmeansisthemotherandchildstayunderthebednetatnight,sothemosquitoesthatbitelateatnightcan'tgetatthem.AndwhenyouuseindoorsprayingwithDDTandthosenetsyoucancutdeathsbyover50percent.Andthat'shappenednowinanumberofcountries.It'sgreattosee.

Butwehavetobecarefulbecausemalaria--theparasiteevolvesandthemosquitoevolves.Soeverytoolthatwe'veeverhadinthepasthaseventuallybecomeineffective.Andsoyouendupwithtwochoices.Ifyougointoacountrywiththerighttoolsandtherightway,youdoitvigorously,youcanactuallygetalocaleradication.Andthat'swherewesawthemalariamapshrinking.Or,ifyougoinkindofhalf-heartedly,foraperiodoftimeyou'llreducethediseaseburden,buteventuallythosetoolswillbecomeineffective,andthedeathratewillsoarbackupagain.Andtheworldhasgonethroughthiswhereitpaidattentionandthendidn'tpayattention.

Nowwe'reontheupswing.Bednetfundingisup.There'snewdrugdiscoverygoingon.Ourfoundationhasbackedavaccinethat'sgoingintophasethreetrialthatstartsinacouplemonths.Andthatshouldsaveovertwothirdsofthelivesifit'seffective.Sowe'regoingtohavethesenewtools.

Butthatalonedoesn'tgiveustheroadmap.Becausetheroadmaptogetridofthisdiseaseinvolvesmanythings.Itinvolvescommunicatorstokeepthefundinghigh,tokeepthevisibilityhigh,totellthesuccessstories.Itinvolvessocialscientists,soweknowhowtogetnotjust70percentofthepeopletousethebednets,but90percent.Weneedmathematicianstocomeinandsimulatethis,todoMonteCarlothingstounderstandhowthesetoolscombineandworktogether.Ofcourseweneeddrugcompaniestogiveustheirexpertise.Weneedrich-worldgovernmentstobeverygenerousinprovidingaidforthesethings.Andsoastheseelementscometogether,I'mquiteoptimisticthatwewillbeabletoeradicatemalaria.

Nowletmeturntoasecondquestion,afairlydifferentquestion,butI'dsayequallyimportant.Andthisis:

Howdoyoumakeateachergreat?

Itseemslikethekindofquestionthatpeoplewouldspendalotoftimeon,andwe'dunderstandverywell.Andtheansweris,really,thatwedon't.Let'sstartwithwhythisisimportant.Well,allofushere,I'llbet,hadsomegreatteachers.Weallhadawonderfuleducation.That'spartofthereasonwe'reheretoday,partofthereasonwe'resuccessful.Icansaythat,eventhoughI'macollegedrop-out.Ihadgreatteachers.

Infact,intheUnitedStates,theteachingsystemhasworkedfairlywell.Therearefairlyeffectiveteachersinanarrowsetofplaces.Sothetop20percentofstudentshavegottenagoodeducation.Andthosetop20percenthavebeenthebestintheworld,ifyoumeasurethemagainsttheothertop20percent.Andthey'vegoneontocreatetherevolutionsinsoftwareandbiotechnologyandkeeptheU.S.attheforefront.

Now,thestrengthforthosetop20percentisstartingtofadeonarelativebasis,butevenmoreconcerningistheeducationthatthebalanceofpeoplearegetting.Notonlyhasthatbeenweak;it'sgettingweaker.Andifyoulookattheeconomy,itreallyisonlyprovidingopportunitiesnowtopeoplewithabettereducation.Andwehavetochangethis.Wehavetochangeitsothatpeoplehaveequalopportunity.Wehavetochangeitsothatthecountryisstrongandstaysattheforefrontofthingsthataredrivenbyadvancededucation,likescienceandmathematics.

WhenIfirstlearnedthestatisticsIwasprettystunnedathowbadthingsare.Over30percentofkidsneverfinishhighschool.Andthathadbeencoveredupforalongtimebecausetheyalwaystookthedropoutrateasthenumberwhostartedinsenioryearandcomparedittothenumberwhofinishedsenioryear.Becausetheyweren'ttrackingwherethekidswerebeforethat.Butmostofthedropoutshadtakenplacebeforethat.Theyhadtoraisethestateddropoutrateassoonasthattrackingwasdonetoover30percent.Forminoritykids,it'sover50percent.Andevenifyougraduatefromhighschool,ifyou'relow-income,youhavelessthana25percentchanceofevercompletingacollegedegree.Ifyou'relow-incomeintheUnitedStates,youhaveahigherchanceofgoingtojailthanyoudoofgettingafour-yeardegree.Andthatdoesn'tseementirelyfair.

So,howdoyoumakeeducationbetter?

Now,ourfoundation,forthelastnineyears,hasinvestedinthis.There'smanypeopleworkingonit.We'veworkedonsmallschools,we'vefundedscholarships,we'vedonethingsinlibraries.Alotofthesethingshadagoodeffect.Butthemorewelookedatit,themorewerealizedthathavinggreatteacherswastheverykeything.Andwehookedupwithsomepeoplestudyinghowmuchvariationistherebetweenteachers,between,say,thetopquartile--theverybest--andthebottomquartile.Howmuchvariationistherewithinaschoolorbetweenschools?

Andtheansweristhatthesevariationsareabsolutelyunbelievable.Atopquartileteacherwillincreasetheperformanceoftheirclass--basedontestscores--byover10percentinasingleyear.Whatdoesthatmean?

ThatmeansthatiftheentireU.S.,fortwoyears,hadtopquartileteachers,theentiredifferencebetweenusandAsiawouldgoaway.Withinfouryearswewouldbeblowingeveryoneintheworldaway.

So,it'ssimple.Allyouneedarethosetopquartileteachers.Andsoyou'dsay,"Wow,weshouldrewardthosepeople.Weshouldretainthosepeople.Weshouldfindoutwhatthey'redoingandtransfe