雅思备考练习提升Sunset for the Oil Busines更新.docx

雅思备考练习提升Sunset for the Oil Busines更新.docx

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雅思备考练习提升SunsetfortheOilBusines更新

TEST7

READINGPASSAGE3

Youshouldspendabout20minutesonQuestions27-40whicharebasedon

ReadingPassage3below.

SunsetfortheOilBusiness?

Theworldisabouttorunoutofoil.Orperhapsnot.Itdependswhomyoubelieve…

MembersofOilDepletionAnalysisCentre（ODAC）recentlymetinLondonandpresentedtechnicaldatathatsupporttheirgrimforecastthattheworldisperilouslyclosetorunningoutofoil.Leadinglightsofthismovement,includingColinCampbell,rejectedrivalviewspresentedbyAmericanGeologicalSurveyandtheInternationalEnergyAgency（IEA）thatcontradictedtheirviews.DrCampbellevendecriedthe“amazingdisplayofignorance,|deliberateignorance,denialandobfuscation”bygovernments,industryandacademicsonthistopic.

Soistheoilreallyrunningout?

Theansweriseasy:

Yes.Nobodyseriouslydisputesthenotionthatoilis,forallpracticalpurposes,anon-renewableresourcethatwillrunoutsomeday,bethatyearsordecadesaway.Theharderquestionisdeterminingwhenpreciselyoilwillbegintogetscarce.AndansweringthatquestioninvolvesscalingHubbert’speak.

M.KingHubbert,aShellgeologistoflegendarystatusamongdepletionexperts,forecastin1956thatoilproductionintheUnitedStateswouldpeakintheearly1970sandthenslowlydecline,insomethingresemblingabell-shapedcurve.Atthetime,hisforecastwascontroversial,andmanyrubbishedit.After1970,however,empiricalevidenceprovedhimcorrect:

oilproductioninAmericadidindeedpeakandhasbeenindeclineeversince.

DrHubbert’sanalysisdrewontheobservationthatoilproductioninanewareatypicallyrisesquicklyatfirst,astheeasiestandcheapestreservesaretapped.Overtime,reservoirsageandgointodecline,andsoliftingoilbecomesmoreexpensive.Oilfromthatareathenbecomeslesscompetitiveinrelationtoothersourcesoffuel.Asaresult,productionslowsdownandusuallytapersoffanddeclines.That,heargued,madeforabell-shapedcurve.

Hissuccessfulpredictionhasemboldenedanewgenerationofgeologiststoapplyhismethodologyonaglobalscale.ChiefamongthemaretheexpertsatODAC,whoworrythattheglobalpeakinproductionwillcomeinthenextdecade.DrCampbellusedtoarguethatthepeakshouldhavecomealready;henowthinksitisjustroundthecomer.Aheavyweighthasnowjoinedthisgloomychorus.KennethDeffeyesofPrincetonUniversityarguesinalivelynewbookthatglobaloilproductioncouldpeakwithinthenextfewyears.

Thatsharplycontradictsmainstreamthinking.AmericasGeologicalSurveypreparedanexhaustivestudyofoildepletionlastyearthatputthepeakofproductionsomedecadesoff.TheIEAhasjustweighedinwithitsnewWorldEnergyOutlook,whichforeseesenoughoiltocomfortablymeetdemandto2020fromremainingreserves.ReneDahan,oneoftheExxonMobil’stopmanagers,toesfurther:

withanassurancecharacteristicoftheworld’slargestenergycompany,heinsiststhattheworldwillbeawashinoilforanother70years.Whoisright?

Inmakingsenseofthesewildlyopposingviews,itisusefultolookbackatthepitifulhistoryofoilforecasting.Doomstershavebeenpredictingdrywellssincethe1970s,butsofartheoilisstillgushing.Nearlyallthepredictionsfor2000madeafterthe1970soilshockswerefartoopessimistic.

MichaelLynchofDRI-WEFA,aneconomicconsultancy,isoneofthefewoilforecasterswhohasgotthingsgenerallyright.Inanewpaper,DrLynchanalysesthosehistoricalforecasts.Hefindsevidenceofbothbiasandrecurringerrors,whichsuggeststhatmethodologicalmistakes（ratherthanjustpoordata）weretheproblem.Inparticular,hecriticizedforecasterswhousedHubbert-styleanalysisforrelyingonfixedestimatesofhowmuchultimatelyrecoverable"oiltherereallyisbelowground.Thatfigure,heinsists,isactuallyadynamicone,asimprovementsininfrastructure,knowledgeandtechnologyraisetheamountofoilwhichisrecoverable.

Thatpointstowhatwillprobablydeterminewhetherthepessimistsortheoptimistsareright:

technologicalinnovation.Thefirstcamptendstobedismissiveofclaimsofforthcomingtechnologicalrevolutionsinsuchareasasdeep-waterdrillingandenhancedrecovery.DrDeffeyescapturesthisend-of-technologymindsetwell.Hearguesthatbecausetheindustryhasalreadyspentbillionsontechnologydevelopment,itmakesitdifficulttoasktodayfornewtechnology,asmostofthewheelshavealreadybeeninvented.

Yettechno-optimistsarguethatthetechnologicalrevolutioninoilhasonlyjustbegun.

Averagerecoveryrates（howmuchoftheknownoilinareservoircanactuallybebroughttothesurface）arestillonlyaround30-35%.Industryoptimistsbelievethatnewtechniquesonthedrawingboardtodaycouldliftthatfigureto50-60%withinadecade.

Giventheindustrysastonishingtrackrecordofinnovation,itmaybefoolishtobetagainstit.Thatistheresultofadversity:

theoilcrisisofthe1970sforcedBigOiltodevelopreservesinexpensive,inaccessibleplacessuchastheNorthSeaandAlaska,underminingDrHubbert’sassumptionthatcheapreservesaredevelopedfirst.Theresultingupstreaminvestmentshavedrivendownthecostoffindinganddevelopingwellsoverthelasttwodecadesfromover$20abarreltoaround$6abarrel.Thecostofproducingoilhasfallenbyhalf,tounder$4abarrel.

Suchmiracleswillnotcomecheap,however,sincemuchoftheworld’soilisnowproducedinageingfieldsthatarerapidlydeclining.TheIEAconcludesthatglobaloilproductionneednotpeakinthenexttwodecadesifthenecessaryinvestmentsaremade.Sohowmuchisnecessary?

Ifoilcompaniesaretoreplacetheoutputlostatthoseageingfieldsandmeettheworld’sever-risingdemandforoil,theagencyreckonstheymustinvest$1trillioninnon-OPECcountriesoverthenextdecadealone.Ouch.

Questions27-31

DothefollowingstatementsagreewiththeinformationgiveninReadingPassage3?

Inboxes27-31onyouranswersheet,write

YESifthestatementagreeswiththeinformation

NOifthestatementcontradictstheinformation

NOTGIVENifthereisnoinformationonthis

27Hubberthasahigh-profilereputationamongstODACmembers.

28Oilislikelytolastlongerthansomeotherenergysources.

29Themajorityofgeologistsbelievethatoilwillstarttorunoutsometimethis

decade.

30Over50percentoftheoilweknowaboutiscurrentlybeingrecovered.

31HistoryhasshownthatsomeofHubbert’sprinciplesweremistaken.

Questions32-35

CompletethesentencesbelowusingNOMORETHANONEWORDOR

NUMBERfromthepassage.

Writeyouranswersinboxes32-35onyouranswersheet.

ManypeoplebelievedHubbert’stheorywas32_________whenitwasoriginallypresented.

Therecoveryoftheoilgetsmore34______asthereservoirgetsolder.

Theoilfieldcan’tbeas35_____asotherareas.

Questions36-40

Lookatthefollowingstatements（Questions36-40）andthelistofpeoplebelow；

Matcheachstatementwiththecorrectperson,A-E.

Writethecorrectletter,A-E,inboxes36-40onyouranswersheet.

36hasfoundfaultingeologicalresearchprocedure.

37hasprovidedthelongest-rangeforecastregardingoilsupply.

38hasconvincedothersthatoilproductionwillfollowaparticularmodel.

39hasaccusedfellowscientistsofrefusingtoseethetruth.

40hasexpresseddoubtoverwhetherimprovedmethodsofextractingoilare

possible.

AColinCampbell

BM.KingHubbert

CKennethDeffeyes

DReneDahan

EMichaelLynch

显示答案

27Yes

28NotGiven

29No

30No

31Yes

32controversial

33tapped

34expensive

35competitive

36E

37D

38B

39A

40C

题目详解

Questions27-31

27.利用细节信息“Hubbert”和“ODAC”定位于原文第三段第一句话“M.KingHubbert，aShellgeologistoflegendarystatusamongdepletionexperts…”。

原文中他是一个“geologistoflegendarystatus”对应题目信息“high-profilereputation”。

题目与原文是同意表达，所以答案为Yes。

28按照顺序性原则和细节信息“otherenergysources”定位于原文第四段第二句话“Oilfromthatareathenbecomeslesscompetitiveinrelationtoothersourcesoffuel。

但是这里并没有提及题目中所说的“lastlongerthansomeotherenergysources”，只是说石油作为能源不再有竞争力而已。

题目信息在原文基础上无法判断，所以答案为NotGiven

29.按照顺序性原则和细节信息“Themajorityofgeologists”和“thisdecade”定位于

厚文第五段第二句话“ChiefamongthemaretheexpertsatODAC，whoworrythatthe

globalpeakinproductionwillcomeinthenextdecade”，原文明显在这里提及大多数地

质学家认^；，在“nextdecade”石油的生产会达到顶峰，而非“starttorunout”。

题

目信息与原文信息正好相反，所以答案为No。

30利用细信息50percent和“recovered”定位于原文倒数第三段“Averagerecoveryrates（howmuchoftheknownoilinareservoircanactuallybebroughttothesurface）arestillonlyaround30-35%.Industryoptimistsbelievethatnewtechniquesonthedrawingboardtodaycouldliftthatfigureto50-60%withinadecade”。

原文这里明显提及目前的油井提取率只能达到30-35%，50%是在未来人们可能达到的开采率，而不是现在。

题目信息与原文信息正好相反，所以答案为No。

31利用顺序性原则和细节彳目息“Hubbert’sPrinciples”定位于原文倒数第二段第二句话…underminingDr.Hubbert’sassumptionthatcheapreservesaredevelopedfirt题目信息“someofHubbert’sprinciplesweremistaken”应原文“underminingDr.Hub-bert’sassumption”。

题目与原文是同意表达，所以答案为Yes。

Questions32-35

32.利用细节信息“Hubbert’stheory”和“originallypresented”定位于原文第三段第二

句话“Atthetime,hisforecastwascontroversial,andmanyrubbishedit”。

因为题目说

“Manypeoplebelieve...”，所以正确答案只能填controversial,而不能填rubbished。

33利用细节信息“newoilfield”和“easytorise”定位于原文第四段第一句话“oilproductioninanewareatypicallyrisesquicklyatfirst,astheeasiestandcheapestreservesaretapped”，这里“newarea”对应题目信息“newoilfield”，“risesquicklyatfirst”对应题目“easytorise”，所以正确答案为tapped。

34从利用细节信息“thereservoirgetsolder”定位于原文第四段第二句话”…ageandgointodecline,andsoliftingoilbecomesmoreexpensive”，这里“reservoirsage”对应题目信息“thereservoirgetsolder'所以正确答案为expensive。

35利用顺序性原则