How Big Can The LED Lighting Market Get.docx
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HowBigCanTheLEDLightingMarketGet
HowBigCanTheLEDLightingMarketGet?
Nowlet'stransitiontoanexaminationofmarketdatacenteredonlightingproductspresentedinthePlenarybySmallwoodondayoneoftheStrategiesinLight(SIL).Thepresentationwasentitled"HowbigcantheLEDlightingmarketget?
"Smallwoodaddressedboththelampsandluminairesmarkets.
SmallwoodmovedintoaleadershippositionintheStrategiesUnlimitedlightingpracticeinlate2013.Hehassincerevampedtheapproachthatthefirmtakestocharacterizethelightingmarket.Theresearchhasbeenexpandedtocoverlightingproductsbasedonalltypesoflightsources-notjustLED-basedproducts.Thedataissegmentedforformfactorsandapplications.AndSmallwoodhasleddevelopmentofamarketmodelthatcanyieldregionalgeographicalsegmentationofthemarket.Smallwoodalsosaidthenewapproachwillenablemoreaccuratepredictionofsaturationbylong-life,LED-basedproductsandthecoincidentshrinkingofmarketpotential.
Startingwiththelampsmarket,Smallwoodsaidtherearearound45Binstalledlampsocketsintheworldwiththatnumberonlygrowingincrementallyinthecomingyears(Fig.14).Today,9Bincandescentproductsareinstalledinthosesocketswiththatnumberprojectedtofalltolessthan2Bby2022.Smallwood'sprojectionshowsthatlinearfluorescentandcompactfluorescent(CFL)technologieswillremainprevalentthrough2022.Primarily,LED-basedreplacementlampswillreplacetheincandescentincumbentwithsomedisplacementoffluorescentandhalogentechnologies.
Recognize,however,thatthereisavastdifferencebetweentheinstalledbaseandshipmentsoflampsthroughouttheforecastperiod;StrategiesUnlimited'snewmodelallowstheanalyststoreportboth,andbyregionorglobally.Forexample,Fig.15depictsthedifferenceintheNorthAmericaregionspecifictoA-lamps.TheinstalledbasechartontheleftofFig.15showsastrongpresenceofincandescentproducts,whereasshipmentsofsuchproductswilldropprecipitouslyasLEDlampshipmentscontinuetorise.
Theglobalinstalledbaseoflampswillremainamixintermsoflight-sourcetechnologythrough2022.
TheinstalledbaseofincandescentA-lampsinNorthAmericawilldeclineslowly,whereasnewshipmentsofsuchproductshavealreadyplummetedasLED-lampshipmentsrise.
SmallwoodreportedthatLEDlampsrepresented5%oftheoverall2014marketglobally.Heprojectsthatpenetrationtoriseto28%in2018andto52%in2022.Thosenumbersmaysoundlow,butrememberthetotallampmarketincludestubes,andfluorescenttechnologywillremainamajorplayer.Indeed,Smallwoodprojectsthatfluorescenttubeswillstillaccountformorethan20%oflampshipmentsin2022.
Ironically,SmallwoodalsoreportedaverybullishoutlookforLED-basedreplacementtubesashebrokethedatadownbytypeoflamp.SmallwoodadmittedthatheneverbelievedtheconceptofanLED-basedreplacementtubetobeaverygoodidearelativetoproductssuchasintegral,LED-basedluminaires.Buttheresearchindicatesthatthemarketwillheavilyrelyonsuchtubeproductsprimarilybecauseoftheeaseofretrofit.Smallwoodprojectsa29%CAGRfortubeshipmentsthrough2022,althoughthegrowthwillflattenattheendofthatperiodassocketsaresaturated.
Overallsaturationwillbefeltfarmoreacutely.Totallampshipmentswilldeclineby44%through2022.Otherthanthetubemarket,alloftheotherlamptypeswillbeindeclineintermsofunitsshippedbytheendofthisdecade.
Still,thelampmarketwillremainsizeableintermsofrevenue.Fig.16showsthelampmarketchartedbyrevenueandsegmentedbylight-sourcetechnology.Revenuewillpeakat$21Bin2018butstillreachahefty$16Bvaluein2022.
Smallwoodalsocoveredtheluminairesspace.AndtheStrategiesUnlimitedteamhasdevelopedafarmoregranularmodelforthebroadluminairessegment.Theteamisnowsegmentingthemarketbydifferenttypesoffixturesincluding:
1.Downlights
2.Troffers
3.Highbays
4.Suspendedpendants
5.Tracklights
6.Streetlights
Moreover,thenewmodelincludestheabilitytosortthedatabyapplicationincludingretail,office,hospitality,andmore.Thetwotypesofsegmentationcanbeappliedindividuallyortogether.AndintermsofLED-basedfixtures,StrategiesUnlimitedisseparatelytrackingfixturesthatuseLED-basedreplacementlampsandfixturesbasedonintegral,LED-baseddesigns.
Globallamprevenuewillpeakinaboutfouryearsassocketsaturationwithlong-lifeLED-basedproductstakesplace.
Thegloballuminairemarketwillgrowslowlythrough2022,butLED-basedproductswillrepresentanincreasinglylargeshareofthatrevenue.
In2014,thecombinationofbothtypesofLEDfixturesrepresentedlessthan4%ofthetotalluminairemarketintermsoftheinstalledbase.Butagaininstalledbaseandshipmentsdiffer.Fig.17providesanexcellentpictureofbothmarketsizeandthelight-sourcetechnologiesthatwillshipinluminaires.Luminairerevenuewillonlyrampfrom$59Bin2014to$66Bin2022.Butasmentionedatthebeginningofthearticle,69%oftheluminaireswillbeLED-basedin2022.
Smallwoodclosedhispresentationwithsomeinterestingthoughts.Hesaid,"ThelightingworldhasacceptedthatLEDsarethefuture."Still,hecharacterizedthetransitionasanevolutionfromthefilamenttoLEDsources.Headded,however,thatthereisarevolutionafootinadditiontothechanginglightsources.
Smallwoodsaid,"TherevolutionistheancillaryproductsandtechnologiessuchasnetworksandcontrolsthatarecomingalongwithLEDlighting."Smartlightingbasedonsensor-drivenautonomousorprogrammaticcontrolsisagoodexample.Smallwoodalsosuggestedthattherevolutionwilldeliver"lightingwithapurpose."Hesaidlightingwillspecificallytargetneedssuchashumanwellbeing,productivity,security,andsafety.
FourMajorTrendsinStreet-lightTechnology
Street-lighttechnologyhaschangedgreatlyovertime,includingthetypeoflightsourcesused,andthewaystreet-lightingsystemsareoperatedandmanaged.Recentconcernsaboutglobalwarmingandtherisingcostofenergyhaveincentivizedutilitiesandmunicipalitiestodeploynewsolutionsaddressingtheseissues.Intelligentoutdoorlightinghelpstodrasticallyreduceenergyconsumption.Atthesametime,itincreasessafetyandreducesmaintenancecosts.TogetherwiththedeploymentofmoreefficientluminairesbasedonLEDs,theoperatorshavetothinkaboutoutdoorlightingnetworks(OLNs)usingastandardizedmanagementinterface.TheTALQConsortiumwascreatedtodevelopsuchstandardstoguaranteeinteroperabilityofheterogeneoussystemsandloweroperationalandpurchasingcosts.
Fourmajortrendshaveinfluencedtheoutdoorlightingsectorinthepastfewyears.ThefirsttrendistheacceleratedintroductionofLEDluminairesinroadandurbanlighting.LED-basedsolid-statelighting(SSL)systems,duetotheirelectronicnature,arerelativelyeasytocontrol.AlongwiththestronggrowthofoutdoorSSL,arobustincreaseintheuptakeofcontrollableoutdoorlightingisexpected.
Thesecondmajortrendisaworldwideneedforlightingcontrol.Adjustinglightinglevelsdependingonactivity,presence,traffic,andweatherconditionssavesenergybyprovidingtherightlightlevelattherighttimeintherightplace.Knowingatanytimethestatusofanylightpointandbeingabletomonitoreachofthemremotelydrasticallyreducesthenumberofmaintenancetrucksonstreetsandincreasessafetyinthestreets.
Thethirdtrendistheprofessionalizationofcityoperationsmanagementtoincreaseoverallefficiency.Citiesarelookingforefficientwaystomanagetheirassets,includinglighting.CentraloutdoorSSLcontrolsystemsprovidethemeansandtoolstoreduceoperatingcostsbyautomaticallyidentifyingfailures,reducingthenumberofonsitetrips,andenablingremotecontrol-e.g.,toadjustthelightingincaseofanemergency.
Andthelasttrend,butmaybethemostimportantone,istheglobalpressureofsocietytoreduceenergyconsumptionandcarbonemissions.Todaythereisastrongneedtoreduceenergyconsumptioninordertoreducethecarbonfootprintimpact.Moreover,lightingaccountsforalargeshareofenergyusegloballyandstreetlightsoperateforextendedperiodsnightly.Atpresent,onlyaverysmallfractionofoutdoorlighting-likelylessthan10%-canbedimmed.ThoughinstallationofLEDluminairesalreadyprovidesasignificantenergyreduction,thereisstillgreatpotentialforfurtherenergysavingswithcontrollableoutdoorSSLsystems.
Creerecallsrecentlylaunchedfluorescent-replacementLEDT8lamps
Lamprecallaffects700,000SSLproductsintendedforfluorescentreplacementandCreewillsupplynewLEDT8tubesbeginninginJulyorofferrefunds.
TheCreeLEDT8tubefamilylaunchedbackinAprilhasbeenfoundtohaveadesignflawthatcouldresultinaburnhazard,andCreeisvoluntarilyrecalling700,000ofthetubesandcooperatingwiththeUSConsumerProductSafetyCommission(CPSC).CreeisofferingownersoftheLEDT8tubestheoptionofarefundorreplacementlampsthatthecompanywillbeginshippinginJuly.
Editor’snote:
TheimagedisplayedhereisonlyonerepresentativeLEDT8productimagefromtheCreerecallpage.Pleasevisitformoredetailsandimages.
WhiletherecallissurelynotpositivenewsforCree,anumberofcompaniesinthesolid-statelighting(SSL)businesshavebeenthroughsimilarsituations.OsramSylvaniaandLightingScienceGroupwereinvolvedinanA-lamprecallbackin2013.AndPhilip