How Big Can The LED Lighting Market Get.docx

1、How Big Can The LED Lighting Market GetHow Big Can The LED Lighting Market Get?Now lets transition to an examination of market data centered on lighting products presented in the Plenary by Smallwood on day one of the Strategies in Light (SIL). The presentation was entitled How big can the LED light

2、ing market get? Smallwood addressed both the lamps and luminaires markets.Smallwood moved into a leadership position in the Strategies Unlimited lighting practice in late 2013. He has since revamped the approach that the firm takes to characterize the lighting market. The research has been expanded

3、to cover lighting products based on all types of light sources - not just LED-based products. The data is segmented for form factors and applications. And Smallwood has led development of a market model that can yield regional geographical segmentation of the market. Smallwood also said the new appr

4、oach will enable more accurate prediction of saturation by long-life, LED-based products and the coincident shrinking of market potential.Starting with the lamps market, Smallwood said there are around 45B installed lamp sockets in the world with that number only growing incrementally in the coming

5、years (Fig. 14). Today, 9B incandescent products are installed in those sockets with that number projected to fall to less than 2B by 2022. Smallwoods projection shows that linear fluorescent and compact fluorescent (CFL) technologies will remain prevalent through 2022. Primarily, LED-based replacem

6、ent lamps will replace the incandescent incumbent with some displacement of fluorescent and halogen technologies.Recognize, however, that there is a vast difference between the installed base and shipments of lamps throughout the forecast period; Strategies Unlimiteds new model allows the analysts t

7、o report both, and by region or globally. For example, Fig. 15 depicts the difference in the North America region specific to A-lamps. The installed base chart on the left of Fig. 15 shows a strong presence of incandescent products, whereas shipments of such products will drop precipitously as LED l

8、amp shipments continue to rise.The global installed base of lamps will remain a mix in terms of light-source technology through 2022.The installed base of incandescent A-lamps in North America will decline slowly, whereas new shipments of such products have already plummeted as LED-lamp shipments ri

9、se.Smallwood reported that LED lamps represented 5% of the overall 2014 market globally. He projects that penetration to rise to 28% in 2018 and to 52% in 2022. Those numbers may sound low, but remember the total lamp market includes tubes, and fluorescent technology will remain a major player. Inde

10、ed, Smallwood projects that fluorescent tubes will still account for more than 20% of lamp shipments in 2022.Ironically, Smallwood also reported a very bullish outlook for LED-based replacement tubes as he broke the data down by type of lamp. Smallwood admitted that he never believed the concept of

11、an LED-based replacement tube to be a very good idea relative to products such as integral, LED-based luminaires. But the research indicates that the market will heavily rely on such tube products primarily because of the ease of retrofit. Smallwood projects a 29% CAGR for tube shipments through 202

12、2, although the growth will flatten at the end of that period as sockets are saturated.Overall saturation will be felt far more acutely. Total lamp shipments will decline by 44% through 2022. Other than the tube market, all of the other lamp types will be in decline in terms of units shipped by the

13、end of this decade.Still, the lamp market will remain sizeable in terms of revenue. Fig. 16 shows the lamp market charted by revenue and segmented by light-source technology. Revenue will peak at $21B in 2018 but still reach a hefty $16B value in 2022.Smallwood also covered the luminaires space. And

14、 the Strategies Unlimited team has developed a far more granular model for the broad luminaires segment. The team is now segmenting the market by different types of fixtures including:1. Downlights2. Troffers3. High bays4. Suspended pendants5. Tracklights6. Street lightsMoreover, the new model inclu

15、des the ability to sort the data by application including retail, office, hospitality, and more. The two types of segmentation can be applied individually or together. And in terms of LED-based fixtures, Strategies Unlimited is separately tracking fixtures that use LED-based replacement lamps and fi

16、xtures based on integral, LED-based designs.Global lamp revenue will peak in about four years as socket saturation with long-life LED-based products takes place.The global luminaire market will grow slowly through 2022, but LED-based products will represent an increasingly large share of that revenu

17、e.In 2014, the combination of both types of LED fixtures represented less than 4% of the total luminaire market in terms of the installed base. But again installed base and shipments differ. Fig. 17 provides an excellent picture of both market size and the light-source technologies that will ship in

18、 luminaires. Luminaire revenue will only ramp from $59B in 2014 to $66B in 2022. But as mentioned at the beginning of the article, 69% of the luminaires will be LED-based in 2022.Smallwood closed his presentation with some interesting thoughts. He said, The lighting world has accepted that LEDs are

19、the future. Still, he characterized the transition as an evolution from the filament to LED sources. He added, however, that there is a revolution afoot in addition to the changing light sources.Smallwood said, The revolution is the ancillary products and technologies such as networks and controls t

20、hat are coming along with LED lighting. Smart lighting based on sensor-driven autonomous or programmatic controls is a good example. Smallwood also suggested that the revolution will deliver lighting with a purpose. He said lighting will specifically target needs such as human wellbeing, productivit

21、y, security, and safety.Four Major Trends in Street-light TechnologyStreet-light technology has changed greatly over time, including the type of light sources used, and the way street-lighting systems are operated and managed. Recent concerns about global warming and the rising cost of energy have i

22、ncentivized utilities and municipalities to deploy new solutions addressing these issues. Intelligent outdoor lighting helps to drastically reduce energy consumption. At the same time, it increases safety and reduces maintenance costs. Together with the deployment of more efficient luminaires based

23、on LEDs, the operators have to think about outdoor lighting networks (OLNs) using a standardized management interface. The TALQ Consortium was created to develop such standards to guarantee interoperability of heterogeneous systems and lower operational and purchasing costs.Four major trends have in

24、fluenced the outdoor lighting sector in the past few years. The first trend is the accelerated introduction of LED luminaires in road and urban lighting. LED-based solid-state lighting (SSL) systems, due to their electronic nature, are relatively easy to control. Along with the strong growth of outd

25、oor SSL, a robust increase in the uptake of controllable outdoor lighting is expected.The second major trend is a worldwide need for lighting control. Adjusting lighting levels depending on activity, presence, traffic, and weather conditions saves energy by providing the right light level at the rig

26、ht time in the right place. Knowing at any time the status of any light point and being able to monitor each of them remotely drastically reduces the number of maintenance trucks on streets and increases safety in the streets.The third trend is the professionalization of city operations management t

27、o increase overall efficiency. Cities are looking for efficient ways to manage their assets, including lighting. Central outdoor SSL control systems provide the means and tools to reduce operating costs by automatically identifying failures, reducing the number of onsite trips, and enabling remote c

28、ontrol - e.g., to adjust the lighting in case of an emergency.And the last trend, but maybe the most important one, is the global pressure of society to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. Today there is a strong need to reduce energy consumption in order to reduce the carbon footprint i

29、mpact. Moreover, lighting accounts for a large share of energy use globally and street lights operate for extended periods nightly. At present, only a very small fraction of outdoor lighting - likely less than 10% - can be dimmed. Though installation of LED luminaires already provides a significant

30、energy reduction, there is still great potential for further energy savings with controllable outdoor SSL systems.Cree recalls recently launched fluorescent-replacement LED T8 lampsLamp recall affects 700,000 SSL products intended for fluorescent replacement and Cree will supply new LED T8 tubes beg

31、inning in July or offer refunds.The Cree LED T8 tube family launched back in April has been found to have a design flaw that could result in a burn hazard, and Cree is voluntarily recalling 700,000 of the tubes and cooperating with the US Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC). Cree is offering o

32、wners of the LED T8 tubes the option of a refund or replacement lamps that the company will begin shipping in July.Editors note: The image displayed here is only one representative LED T8 product image from the Cree recall page. Please visit for more details and images.While the recall is surely not positive news for Cree, a number of companies in the solid-state lighting (SSL) business have been through similar situations. Osram Sylvania and Lighting Science Group were involved in an A-lamp recall back in 2013. And Philip