The distribution of unsecured debt in the United Kingdom分布在英国的无抵押债务.docx

The distribution of unsecured debt in the United Kingdom分布在英国的无抵押债务.docx

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ThedistributionofunsecureddebtintheUnitedKingdom分布在英国的无抵押债务

ThedistributionofunsecureddebtintheUnitedKingdom:

surveyevidence

falseTudela,Merxe;Young,Garry

按ESC键关闭

.BankofEngland.QuarterlyBulletin

43. 4

（Winter2003）:

417-427.

TheBankrecentlycommissionedasurveyaskingpeopleabouttheirunsecuredborrowingandwhetheritisaburdentothem.AsofOctober,34%ofrespondentshadsomeformofunsecureddebt,overandabovethatwhichtheyexpectedtopayoffattheendofthemonth,andtheaverageamountowedwasaroundL3,500.Somepeopleowedmuchmorethantheaverage:

26%ofthosewithsomedebtowedmorethan£5,000.Theevidencesuggeststhattheproportionofpeoplewithsomedebthasnotchangedsinceatleastthelate1980s.Whiletheaverageamountborrowedbydebtorshasincreased,since2000theextraborrowinghasbeenconcentratedamongthosewithhouseholdincomesaboveL17,500.Despitetheriseinaveragedebtlevelsinrecentyears,theproportionofpeoplewhoconsidertheirdebtnottobeaburdenhasincreased.But,theamountborrowedandtheshareofunsecureddebtaccountedforbythosewhoconsideritaheavyburdenhavebothincreased.

本文在CHAPS英镑的处理上使用数据一夜之间描述无担保的片断在CHAPS之内安置的贷款市场。

它为了奠定基础的付款基础设施评估这些处理的大小，时机和重要性。

贷款的前进和偿还一夜之间被价值估计在我们的抽样时期期间占CHAPS英镑的活动中的大约20%个；四个CHAPS英镑的成员实际上发送并且收到所有对于这些贷款相应的付款；同时，最后，与这个向着CHAPS天的末端的市场升高有关的CHAPS英镑的付款的价值。

Headnote

TheBankrecentlycommissionedasurveyaskingpeopleabouttheirunsecuredborrowingandwhetheritisaburdentothem.Thisarticlesummarisesthemainresults.

（1）AsofOctober,34%ofrespondentshadsomeformofunsecureddebt,overandabovethatwhichtheyexpectedtopayoffattheendofthemonth,andtheaverageamountowedwasaround£3,500.Somepeopleowedmuchmorethantheaverage:

26%ofthosewithsomedebtowedmorethan£5,000.Around10%ofborrowerssaidthattheirunsecureddebtwasaheavyburdentotheirhouseholds,similartoearliersurveys.Forpurposesofcomparisonovertime,thequestionswerebasedonthoseusedinearliersurveys.Theevidencesuggeststhattheproportionofpeoplewithsomedebthasnotchangedsinceatleastthelate1980s.Whiletheaverageamountborrowedbydebtorshasincreased,since2000theextraborrowinghasbeenconcentratedamongthosewithhouseholdincomesabove£17,500.Despitetheriseinaveragedebtlevelsinrecentyears,theproportionofpeoplewhoconsidertheirdebtnottobeaburdenhasincreased.But,theamountborrowedandtheshareofunsecureddebtaccountedforbythosewhoconsideritaheavyburdenhavebothincreased.

Therecentrapidgrowthinhouseholddebthasbeendrivenbyhighratesofbothsecuredborrowing,throughmortgages,andunsecuredborrowing,throughpersonalloans,overdraftsandcreditcards.Whiletheaggregatestockofunsecureddebt（£164billionatend-2003Q2）issmallinrelationtothestockofmortgagedebt（£714billion）andhouseholdsectorgrosswealth（£5,547billion,includinghousing）,itsfastgrowthhasraisedquestionsaboutwhetheranincreasingnumberofpeoplehaveborrowedmorethantheycaneasilyaffordtorepay.Thiswouldbemorelikelyifunsecuredborrowingisincreasinglyconcentratedamongthosewithrelativelylowincomesandfewassets.Itsbuild-upcouldalsoleaveothersmorevulnerabletounexpectedchangesintheircircumstances.Thesepossibilitiesmighthaveimplicationsforbothmonetarypolicyandfinancialstability.Anassessmentoftheextentofcurrentandpotentialproblemsassociatedwiththegrowthofunsecureddebtrequiressomeinvestigationofhowthedebtisdistributedamongindividualborrowers.Thisarticleissolelyconcernedwiththedistributionofunsecureddebtandonlydiscussesmortgageborrowingtotheextentthatthisisusefulindistinguishingthecharacteristicsofborrowers.

AnimportantsourceofinformationonthefinancialpositionofindividualadultsandhouseholdsistheBritishHouseholdPanelSurvey（BHPS）,whichsince1991hasaskedbroadlythesamegroupofpeopleabouttheireconomicandsocialcircumstances.However,themostrecentinformationonunsecureddebtintheBHPSisfor2000.ThiswasanalysedindetailbyCox,WhitleyandBrierley（2002）.Theyfoundthatthehouseholdswiththehighestlevelsofbothmortgageandunsecureddebtstendedalsotohavethehighestlevelsofincomeandnetwealthinboth1995and2000.Buttheyalsofoundthatdebttoincomeratioswerehighestforlow-incomehouseholds.

Thesurvey

Inordertoupdatethisanalysis,morerecentevidencehasbeenobtainedfromaspeciallycommissionedsurveyfromNMGResearch,thatinOctober2003askedanationallyrepresentativesampleof1,950adultsabouttheirunsecureddebt.UsingthesamequestionsasintheBHPS,peoplewereaskedaboutthetypesofdebttheyhad,theamountstheyowedandwhethertheyconsideredthedebttobeaburdentotheirhousehold.

（2）Abroadsummaryofthesurveymethodologyandexactwordingofquestionsisincludedintheannex.

Only11%ofintervieweesrefusedtosaywhethertheyhadanyunsecureddebtornot.Butofthosewithdebt,33%didnotsayhowmuchtheyowed.Thismaywellreflectuncertaintyabouttheamounttheyoweratherthanawishtoconcealit.Arecentsurvey,CitizensAdvice（2003）,explicitlyaskedpeoplewhethertheyknewhowmuchtheyowedintotalonalloftheircreditcommitments.Itfoundthat31%ofthoseowingsomethingoncredits/loansdidnotknowhowmuchtheyowed.InformationfromtheNMGResearchSurveysuggeststhattheperceivedburdenofdebtamongthosewhodonotsayhowmuchtheyoweisnotdifferentfromthatamongthosewhodoreporttheamounttheyowe.Onthisbasis,weassumethattheamountowedbythosewhodonotrevealtheirdebtisnotsystematicallydifferentfromtheamountowedbythosewhodorevealit.

（1）

Participation

TableAoutlinessomeofthekeyfindingsconcerningtheproportionofpeopleusingdifferentmethodsofborrowing（theparticipationrate）.Foreachtypeofdebtinstrument,peopleareaskednottoincludeanyborrowingthattheyexpecttopayoffinfullbytheendofthemonth.Thisisintendedtoexcludeborrowing,mainlyoncreditcards,thatisdoneonatemporarybasis,becauseitisaconvenientwayofmakingtransactions.

（2）

Intotal,34%ofrespondentshavesometypeofunsecureddebt.Byinstrument,15%ofrespondentsowemoneyonacreditcard,13%haveapersonalloan,8%owemoneyoncataloguepurchasesand7%haveanoverdraft.Ingeneral,participationvariesbroadlypositivelywiththelevelofhouseholdincomeformosttypesofborrowing,exceptDSSsocialfundloans,notavailabletothoseonhighincomes,andborrowingthroughcataloguesandmailorder,whichisusedatasimilarratethroughouttheincomedistribution.Studentloansareconcentratedinthelowest-incomegroup,probablyindicatingthatahighproportionofborrowersarestillstudying.Theoverallrateofparticipationintheunsecureddebtmarketishighestforthosewithannualhouseholdincomeofbetween£25,000and£34,999,aroundtwicethatforthosewithhouseholdincomebelow£9,500.

Averagelevelsofdebtbyhouseholdincomeanddebtinstrument

TableBsetsouttheaverageamountofdebtperborrower.Intotal,theamountborrowedisalsostronglyrelatedtohouseholdincome,withaveragedebtofaround£1,800fordebtorswithhouseholdincomeintherange£4,500-£9,499andnearly£6,000forthosewithhouseholdincomeinexcessof£60,000.Theexceptiontothispatternisfordebtorsinthelowest-incomegroup,whereaveragedebtis£2,400,reflectingadisproportionatenumberofpeoplewithstudentdebtinthisgroup.Whiletheparticipationoflow-incomehouseholdsasborrowersintheoverdraftandcreditcardmarketsisrelativelylow,theaverageamounttheyborrowusingtheseproductsisrelativelyhigh.Forexample,theaverageoverdraftamongthosewithincomeoflessthan£4,500isclosetotheoverallaverage,whiletheaveragecreditcarddebtofthosewithhouseholdincomeofbetween£4,500and£9,499isabovetheoverallaverage.Bycontrast,borrowingisstronglyincreasingwithincomeforpersonalloansand（toalesserextent）hirepurchase（HP）agreements,possiblyreflectingtheiruseasamethodoffinancingirregularlarge-ticketincome-relatedspending.Fortheseinstruments,borrowershavelittlediscretiontoincreasetheirdebtwithoutthepermissionoflenders.Onaverage,borrowingthroughstudentloans,personalloans,HPagreementsandcreditcardsisforlargeramountsthanthroughoverdrafts,catalogueormailorderfinanceandDSSsocialfundloans.Theoverallaveragedebtofborrowersis£3,500.

Robustness

TheaveragesintheindividualcellsinTableBneedtobetreatedwithcarebecausethesamplesizeissmallinsomecases（particularlyforOtherloans'）,althoughtheoverallaveragesforincomegroupsandtypesofloansarelikelytoberelativelyreliable.Moregenerally,therobustnessofthefiguresonparticipationandaveragedebtlevelscanbeassessedbycomparingthemwithotherevidence.TableCsummarisesinformationonparticipationandaveragedebtlevelsfromothersurveys.Somedifferenceistobeexpectedsimplybecauseeachsurveyisbasedonasmallsampleofamuchlargerpopulation.Moreover,thefiguresarenotexactlycomparablebecausesomesurveys,suchasthatbyNMGResearch,askabouttheborrowingofindividualadultswhileothersconsiderthepositionofhouseholds.EvidencefromtheBHPS,whichconsidersboth,suggeststhatparticipationratesareabout8percentagepointshigherforhouseholdsthanindividuals.Thisisnottheonlydifferenceinthatsomesurveysprompttheintervieweeaboutthetypesofdebttheymayhave.

（1）Takingthesediffer