电解铝板块行业分析报告.docx
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电解铝板块行业分析报告
2017年11月
2017年电解铝板块行业分析报告
1.这个时间点,我们为什么依旧坚定看好电解铝板块............................5
1.1.供需格局:
今年紧平衡,明年有缺口...................................................................5
1.2.电解铝社会库存拐点逐步显现...............................................................................7
1.3.政策坚定执行,环保限产影响加码.......................................................................8
1.4.冶炼企业负债率高企,铝行业利润亟待提升.....................................................10
2.原料涨价挤压电解铝利润,全产业链覆盖大势所趋..........................13
2.1.氧化铝:
产能集中度高,具备一定议价能力.....................................................13
2.2.预焙阳极:
电解铝生产耗材,“自备”与“商业”并举...................................16
2.3.电解铝:
原料成本逐步提高,利润向上游分配.................................................18
3.强者恒强,行业格局演变持续...........................................................20
3.1.主要电解铝公司产能产量梳理.............................................................................20
3.2.电解铝产能臵换指标可跨省臵换.........................................................................21
4.选股逻辑、弹性测算、投资建议........................................................22
4.1.电解铝标的选择逻辑:
选择“赛道”对的.........................................................22
4.2.弹性测算:
铝价、氧化铝价格上涨,中国铝业业绩弹性最大.........................22
4.3.投资建议.................................................................................................................25
1、中国铝业(601600)....................................................................................................25
2、云铝股份(000807)....................................................................................................26
5.风险提示.............................................................................................26
图表目录
图1:
电解铝总供给量增速逐步收窄..................................................................................................5图2:
7-8月份国内电解铝总供给量逐步收缩......................................................................................5图3:
电解铝消耗依赖国内供给,净进口体量小.................................................................................5图4:
中国铝消费增速高于世界平均..................................................................................................5图5:
2016年国内铝消费结构............................................................................................................6图6:
房地产投资完成额同比增速7.9%-9.3%....................................................................................6图7:
电网基本建设投资同比增9.9%.................................................................................................6图8:
交通运输固定资产投资增速14.3%-18.8%.................................................................................6图9:
电解铝社会库存151万吨,处于历史高位.................................................................................7图10:
本月下旬,电解铝8地社会库存拐点渐现...............................................................................7图11:
LME期铝库存近3年持续去化...............................................................................................7图12:
LME期铝降低至123万吨......................................................................................................7图13:
SHFE期铝库存攀升至近3年最高点.......................................................................................8图14:
SHFE期铝库存攀升至56.2万吨.............................................................................................8图15:
国内电解铝产能增至4340万吨,6年增91%..........................................................................8图16:
电解铝开工率维持85%以上高位............................................................................................8图17:
中国电解铝产能各省分布情况,山东占23%...........................................................................9图18:
违规及环保限产影响52%电解铝产能.....................................................................................9图19:
2017H1有色板块归母净利润190亿......................................................................................11图20:
铝板块净利率2.85%,远低于行业平均..................................................................................11图21:
铝板块资产负债率最高64.08%..............................................................................................11图22:
电解铝综合能耗最高1685千克标准煤/吨...............................................................................11图23:
矿采企业营收回升,7月同比上涨10%..................................................................................11图24:
矿采企业利润回升,7月同比上涨41%..................................................................................11图25:
矿采行业负债3757亿元,止升趋稳......................................................................................12图26:
矿采行业负债率53%,仍处高位..........................................................................................12图27:
冶炼延压企业营收回升,7月同比上涨17%..........................................................................12图28:
冶炼延压利润回升,7月同比上涨46%.................................................................................12图29:
冶炼延压企业负债2.6万亿,7月涨幅8%............................................................................12图30:
冶炼延压企业负债率64%,仍处高位...................................................................................12图31:
采选固定资产投资累计同比下降20%...................................................................................13图32:
冶炼、延压固定资产投资同比下降5%.................................................................................13图33:
氧化铝价格突破历史高位......................................................................................................13图34:
山东氧化铝价格已达3630元/吨............................................................................................13图35:
氧化铝产能快速攀升,与电解铝相匹配.................................................................................14图36:
2017年中国氧化铝产能7931万吨.........................................................................................14图37:
中国氧化铝产能各省分布情况,山东占33%.........................................................................14图38:
中国十大氧化铝企业(万吨)...............................................................................................14图39:
氧化铝供需仍保持“紧平衡”...............................................................................................14
图40:
三地氧化铝社会库存下降至48万吨......................................................................................14图41:
普通拜耳法成本拆分(中铝及内地)....................................................................................15图42:
低温拜耳法成本拆分(山东及沿海)....................................................................................15图43:
华东地区预焙阳极价格4462元/吨........................................................................................17图44:
商用预焙阳极产能排名.........................................................................................................17图45:
电解铝成本拆分(山东地区)...............................................................................................19图46:
氧化铝成本拆分(普通拜耳法)...........................................................................................19图47:
电解铝价升,理论毛利润下降...............................................................................................19图48:
氧化铝涨价,分享电解铝利润...............................................................................................19图49:
前15家公司电解铝产能合计约3000万吨.............................................................................20图50:
前15家公司氧化铝产能合计约6100万吨.............................................................................20
表格目录
表格12015-2019年中国电解铝供需平衡表(万吨)........................................................................6表格2电解铝行业违规产能关停落实情况统计...................................................................................9表格3电解铝行业整顿力度持续加码.................................................................................................9表格4电解行业标的,云铝、中铝受供给侧改革负面影响较小,业绩弹性可期...............................10表格52015-2019中国氧化铝供需平衡表(万吨).........................................................................15表格6中铝及内地氧化铝成本拆分(万吨)——普通拜耳法..........................................................16表格7山东及沿海氧化铝成本拆分(万吨)——低温拜耳法..........................................................16表格8“2+26”城市影响“自备”预焙阳极产能统计(万吨)........................................................17表格9“2+26”城市影响“商用”预焙阳极产能统计(万吨)........................................................17表格102015-2019中国预焙阳极供需平衡表(万吨)....................................................................18表格11各公司电解铝成本、利润估算(元).................................................................................19表格12各地区电解铝成本、利润估算(元).................................................................................19表格13前15家电解铝企业分项产能汇总......................................................................................20表格14电解铝厂产能臵换指标详细情况(万吨)..........................................................................21表格15电解铝收入、销量弹性测算...............................................................................................22表格16电解铝、氧化铝产能市值弹性测算....................................................................................22表格17主要电解铝公司业绩弹性测算...........................................................................................23表格18主要电解铝公司PE值测算...............................................................................................23表格19:
中国铝业(601600)业绩弹性测算.....................................................................................23表格20:
云铝股份(000807)业绩弹性测算.....................................................................................24表格21:
神火股份(000933)业绩弹性测算.....................................................................................24表格22:
中孚实业(600595)业绩弹性测算.....................................................................................24表格23:
中国铝业盈利预测................................