合肥市场研究与分析Hefei Market analysis.docx

合肥市场研究与分析Hefei Market analysis.docx

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合肥市场研究与分析HefeiMarketanalysis

HefeiEconomicsOverviewandRealEstateMarketOverview

HefeiEconomicsOverview

Hefeihasahistorydatingback2,000yearsago,sincetheQinDynasty.Hefei’spillarindustryarelightindustrywithmanyreputablenationalandinternationalbrands,suchasMeilingrefrigerators,Rongshidawashingmachines,FangcaoRihua,Kaiyuantires,HefeiHaierandsoon.TodayHefeihasbecometheNationalHealthCity,theNationalClass-AOpenCity,oneofthetop50nationalcomprehensivestrengthcity,nationalenvironmentcomprehensivecontroloutstandingcity,oneofthefournationalmajorscienceandtechnologyeducationalbase,oneofthe45nationalhighwaytraffichubcitiesandrailwaytransporthubofthecountry,andbeingtheprovincialcenterforpolitics,economy,transportsandculture.

PopulationandGrowth

Hefei’spopulationhasbeenrisingsteadilyinthepast[6]yearswiththeexceptionof2004,wherethelocalpermanentpopulationexperiencedadecreaseof2.6%comparedto2003,duetothehandoverofsomevillageareatotheneighboringcityofHuainan.Thetotalregisteredpopulationincreasedsteadilyandreached[4.7]millionin[2006],withay-o-yincreaseofapproximately[3.1%]comparedwith[2005].

Source:

HefeiStatisticalYearbook,HefeiEconomicandSocialDevelopmentStatisticalAnnouncement（2001-2006）

GrossDomesticProduct

TheGDPofHefeihasincreaseddramaticallyandreachedRMB107.4billionasoftheendof2006withagrowthrateof25.8%y-o-y.It’sremarkablethatHefeiGDPhasbeinggrowingwithadouble-digitgrowthrateofover10%.

InaccordancewiththetendencyofGDPinrecent6years,GDPpercapitaalsoperformedasteadyincreasethatclimbedtoRMB23,205asoftheendof2006withay-o-ygrowthrateof22.4%.ThegrowthrateofGDPpercapitafrom2004to2005hasbeenmaintainingadouble-digitgrowth.

Source:

HefeiStatisticalYearbook,HefeiEconomicandSocialDevelopmentStatisticalAnnouncement（2001-2006）

ConsumerPriceIndex

Overtheyears,astherapiddevelopmentofcommunityeconomic,livingstandardofpeopleisonasteadyrise.Overallstandardofthecityresidents’consumptionrateissteadyandincreasingaswell,inanotherwordpricesofconsumergoodsandserviceitemspurchasedbyresidentshavebeensteadilyontheriseintherecentyears.

Note:

BaseYearisthepreviousyear

Source:

HefeiStatisticalYearbook,HefeiEconomicandSocialDevelopmentStatisticalAnnouncement（2001-2006）

UrbanDisposableIncomePerCapita

TheurbandisposableincomepercapitaofHefeihasincreasednotablybetween[2001]and[2006].ItreachedRMB[11,013]in[2006],withay-o-yincreaseofapproximately[13.7%]comparedwith[2005].Itistounderstandthatthelivelihoodoflocalresidentsisgettingbetterdaybyday.

Source:

HefeiStatisticalYearbook,HefeiEconomicandSocialDevelopmentStatisticalAnnouncement（2001-2006）

GDPComposition

Thesecondaryandtertiaryindustriesrespectivelyshared[47.6%]and[46.7%]whichisthehighestportioninGDPof[2006],whileonly[5.7%]ofGDPwassharedbyprimaryindustry.

Inmonetaryterms,thetertiaryindustrycontributedRMB[50.15]billionforHefei’stotaloutput,growingby[19.9%]y-o-y.ThesecondaryindustrycontributedRMB[51.06]billion,showinganincreaseof[33.4%]y-o-y.TheprimaryindustrycontributedRMB[6.18]billion,risingslightlyby[17.6%]y-o-y.

Source:

HefeiStatisticalYearbook,HefeiEconomicandSocialDevelopmentStatisticalAnnouncement（2001-2006）

ForeignDirectInvestment

Hefei’sforeigndirectinvestment（“FDI”）hasbeenrisingsteadilyinthepast[5]years.TheFDIactuallyutilizedofHefeihasincreaseddramaticallyandreachedRMB722millionbytheendof2006,agrowthof[77.40%]overthepreviousyear.

Source:

HefeiStatisticalYearbook,HefeiEconomicandSocialDevelopmentStatisticalAnnouncement（2001-2006）

RealEstateInvestment

Therewassignificantgrowthintherealestateinvestmentalongwiththerobusteconomy.Thetotalinvestmentinrealestatehasbeengrowingrapidlyduringtheperiod.RealestateinvestmentinHefeiincreasedsteadilysince2001andreachedRMB28,064millionintotalin2006,whichwasapproximately11timesofthatin2001.

Source:

HefeiStatisticalYearbook,HefeiEconomicandSocialDevelopmentStatisticalAnnouncement（2001-2006）

EstablishmentofForeignEnterprises

Thecitygovernmentisgoingtoseparatehigh-techdevelopmentdivision,newgovernmentculturaldivision,economicandtechnologicaldevelopmentdivision,Xinzhanintegrateddevelopmentexperimentdivision,Longgangintegratedeconomicdevelopmentdivisionandseveralmajorfunctionalareasonthebasisoffouradministrativedivisionsthatalreadyexists.Eachnewdivisionwillattractinvestmentanddevelopaccordingtoitsowncharacteristics.In2006,atotalof155foreign-investedenterpriseswerenewlyapprovedthroughouttheyear,representinganannualincreaseof70%or64enterprisesinnumericalterms;contractedandutilizedforeigninvestmentaccountedtoUS$924millionwithanannualincreaseof1.68times;actualutilizedforeigninvestmentUS$722milliongrowingby77.6%y-o-y.In2006,Shushandistricthadpresenceof460enterprises,settledatotalofUS$24millionofforeigncapital;BaohedistrictattractedatotalofRMB5.21billionofforeigninvestment.Theworld'stop500enterprisescurrentlystationedinHefeiareHitachi,Mitsubishi,Sanyo,SumitomoElectrics,Unilever,Coca-Cola,KFC,McDonald's,Carrefour,ABB,BouyguesandPraxair.

TourismIndustryPerformanceandOutlook

Hefeihasalonghistory,theancientcityisrichinculturalrelics.Hefeigovernmentisvigorouslypromotingtheconstructionofthenewcity,promotingChaohuarea’srealestateandtourismindustry,Binhunewareaisplannedtobeamajorresidentialareastoalleviatethehousingpressureoftheoldcitycenter.Large-scaleecologicalparkisplannedinXinzhanarea,whichwouldstimulatethedevelopmentofanumberoftheregion'snewresidentialprojects,itisexpectedtoenhancetoresidentialpricesinthisarea.

RealEstateMarketAnalysis

OverallRealEstateMarketPerformanceandTrend

In2006,Hefeirealestatemarketdevelopedsteadily,commercialresidentialbuildingpriceissteadywithslightupwardtrend,butthegrowthrateofsellingpricesissignificantlylowercomparedtobefore,whichindicatesthemacro-controlandadjustmentpolicyhaveremarkablyimpactedforthestabilizationofhousingpricesinHefei.Duetotheriseofborrowingrates,holdingperiodoffrom2yearshasincreasedto5years,businesstax,individualincometaxandaseriesofpolicieshasinverselyaffectedtheresidentialmarket,whichalsocausedpartialinvestorsswitchedtheircapitalstocommercialrealestateduetotheriskinresidentialrealestate.Thisresultedinstimulationinthecommercialrealestatemarket,whichisalsocontributedbytheoldcityrebuildingpolicysetbytheHefeigovernment.Asrebuildingtheoldcityandconstructingthenewcityisspeedingup,thedistricts’landscapewillbemoreobvious,wherecommercialactivitiesisexpectedtobeconcentratedintheinneroldcity,inordertofurtherenhancebusinessenvironmentandalleviatehousingpressureofthecenteroldcity.MeanwhiletheconstructionsofBinhunewarea,residentialareaintheoldindustrialdistrictintheeastandXinzhanarea’sresidentialdistrictinthenorthareexpectedtobevigorouslydeveloped.

LandMarket

GovernmentPolicyonLandSupply

根据新近出台的《合肥市土地局关于土地收购储备制度的实施方案

的通知》，下列国有土地应当进行储备：

市辖区范围内的无主地；新修订《土地管理法》实施前为政府代征的土地；土地使用期限已满被依法收回的土地；以出让方式取得土地使用权后无力继续开发又不具备转让条件的土地；拟改变用途用于商业经营、房地产开发或拟转让的划拨土地；被依法收回的荒芜、闲置国有土地；依法没收的土地；因单位搬迁、解散、撤消、破产、产业结构调整或者其他原因调整出的划拨土地；因实施城市规划和土地整理，市政府指令收购的土地；征地转户后的剩余土地及新修订《土地管理法》实施前征而未用的土地（含以重点工程或市政配套工程项目名义征而未用的土地）；城市规划区内经依法征用的土地；其它需要进行储备的国有土地。

RecentLandTransactionsAnalysis

ThetotallandsoldareainHefeiexperiencedacontinuousupwardtrendduring[2000]to[2005].In[2005],therewasatotalof[0.59]millionsqmoflandtransacted,withay-o-yincreaseof[62.4%]whencomparedto[2004].

Source:

HefeiLandResourceAdministrationBureau

Thetotalresidentiallandtransactionsexperiencedacontinuousupwardtrendinthepastsixyears.In2005,thetotalresidentiallandtransactionsinHefeiamountedto5.37millionsqm,representinganincreaseof74.1%comparedto2004.

Source:

HefeiLandResourceAdministrationBureau（2006）

FromSeptember2006toMay2007,[ShuShan]Districtsharedthelargestportionoflandtransactionof[0.92]millionsqm,oraround[39.1%]oftotallandareatransactedinHefei.[BaoHe]Districtrankedsecondwith[0.85]millionsqm,oraround[36.3%]oftotallandareatransacted.

Source:

DTZValuation&AdvisoryService

FromSeptember2006tomay2007,intermsofresidentiallandareatransactedbydistricts,[Shushan]Districtsharedthelargestportionoflandtransactionof[0.66]millionsqm,oraround[57.4%]oftotalresidentiallandareatransactedinHefei.Atotalof[11.5]millionsqmofresidentialareawastransactedinthepastninemonths,accountingfornearly[48.7%]oftotallandareatransactedinHefei.

Source:

DTZValuation&AdvisoryService

Hefei’sLandTransactions（2006.9-2006.12）

District

LandUse

SiteArea（sqm）

Accommodationvalue

Transferby

Baohe

Residential

26666.8

地价130万元/亩（含契税）

安徽皖投置业有限公司

Baohe

Residential

16980.0849

地价189万元/亩（含契税）

安徽方正房地产开发有限责任公司

Baohe

Office

38000.19

地价130万元/亩（含契税）

金坚勇、杜嘉伟陈爱和

Baohe

Office

52000.26

地价193万元/亩（含契税）

鑫苑地产（河南）发展有限公司

Shushan

Residential

68187.0076

地价178万元/亩（含契税）

刘士强

Shushan

Residential

60306.9682

地价176万元/亩（含契税）

合肥政务文化新区开发投资有限公司

Shushan

Residential

74