大学生论文旅游发展外文文献.docx
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大学生论文旅游发展外文文献
大学生论文旅游发展外文文献
MeasuringtheImpactofTourismuponUrbanEconomies:
AReviewofLiterature
KTHC–Knowledge,Technology,HumanCapital
UgoGasparino,ElenaBellini,BarbaraDelCorpoandWilliamMalizia
Abstract
Tourismisincreasinglyseenasapotentiallevertowardshigheconomicgrowth,measuredbothintermsofincomeandemployment.Inrecentyears,interestintourismhasspreadrapidlythroughoutmanysmallandmediumEuropeancities,whichpreviouslyhavenotconsideredthemselvesastouristdestinations.Thispaperreviewsandsummarizestheexistingliteratureontheeconomicassessmentoftourismwiththeobjectivesof,firstly,identifyingthemaincategoriesofimpactsand,secondly,constructinganinventoryofmethodologiesavailabletoassessthem.Wewillprogressstepbystep,startingfromthemostsimplisticapproachesandrelaxingassumptionsasweproceed.Firstly,weassumeastaticsetting,withsparecapacity.Insuchasetting(partialequilibrium),pricesdonotrespondtodemandshocks:
onlyquantities(production,incomeandjobs)adjust.Secondly,werelaxthisassumptionandassumethatthereisnosparecapacity:
pricesrespondtoincreasingdemand(generalequilibrium),leadingtoreallocationofresourcesacrosssectors.Wethenmovefromastatictoadynamicsettingandsurveythosecontributionsthatlookattherelationshipbetweentourismspecialisationandlong-rungrowth.
Keywords:
Tourism,EconomicImpacts,Input-OutputAnalysis,GeneralandPartial
EquilibriumAnalysis
1Thepartialequilibriumanalysis
Partialequilibriumanalysisassumesthatthereissparecapacityunemployedresourcesandthat,asaconsequence,pricesdonotrespondtoincreasingdemand(perfectelasticsupply).Adjustmenttakesplaceonlythroughquantities(production,jobs,andthereforeincome).
Thebasicconceptofpartialequilibriumanalysisisthatof‘multiplier’although,asnoticedbyArcher,«thereisperhapsmoremisunderstandingaboutmultiplieranalysisthanalmostanyotheraspectoftourismresearch»(Archer,1982).Multipliersmeasurethepresenteconomicperformanceofthetourismindustryandtheeffectsofshort-runeconomicadjustmentstoachangeintheleveloftouristexpenditure.
Thedefinitionofmultiplier,intermsofKeynes,isunequivocal:
themultipliermeasurestheincreaseineconomicactivitygeneratedinaneconomybyaunitincreaseintourismexpenditure.Atourismincomemultiplierisacoefficientthatexpressestheamountofincomegeneratedinanareabyanadditionalunitoftouristspending:
forinstance,iftouristsspendanextraEUR1millionintheareaandthisgeneratesEUR800,000ofincome,theKeynesianmultiplieris0.81.However,alternativedefinitionsofmultiplierscanbefoundintourismliterature.Themostpopularoftheseistheuseof‘ratio’multiplier,whereforexampletheincomemultipliertendstobeexpressedastheratioofa‘total’incomegeneratedbytourismexpenditure(seeSection1.1)tothe‘direct’income.Dependingonwhatismeantby‘total’income,threetypesof‘ratio’multiplierscanbegenerated.
Despitethestrongassumptionsimplicitintheircalculation,multipliersarewidelyusedinpolicy-making.Theyareusedtostudytheimpactoftourismonbusinessturnover,incomeandemploymentandcanbeusedtocomparetheimpactofincreaseddemandonothersectorsoftheeconomyordifferentpolicyoptions.
Inwhatfollows,wefirstlyintroducetheeconomicmeaningofmultipliers,analysinghowthetouristexpenditureripplesthroughtheeconomy.Secondly,wepresenttwowidelyusedmethodologiestocalculatemultipliers.Finally,webrieflydiscussandcomparesomeoftheempiricalresults.
2Theeconomicmeaningofmultipliers
Inthedestinationtouristsspendtheirmoneytobuycertaingoodsandservices.Thisinitialtouristexpenditureisgenerallydirectedtoveryspecificsectorsoftheeconomy(lodging,restaurant,amusement,retailtrade,transportation–whichwewillrefertoas
Althoughthecorrectmethodologywouldrequirethecalculationofthemultiplieratthemargin,itiscommonpractice(mainlybecauseofdatalimitation)tocalculateincomeeffectsintermsofaverage,ratherthanmarginal,tourismexpenditureandtoassumethatthereisnosignificantdifferencebetweenthem.Thisimpliesthattheeconomyhasavailablecapacitytomeetfuturedemand
Tourismindustriesandrepresentsadditionalrevenuesfortheseactivities.Thesearetheso-calleddirecteffects.
Partofthoserevenuesisusedtobuyintermediategoodsandservicesthatwillbeusedin‘futureproductioncycles’(intermediatedemand).Aremainingpartwillbeusedtobuytheservicesofproductionfactors:
labour,capitalandland(wages,interestsandprofits,andrents–grossvalueadded),topaytaxestocentralandlocalgovernments,orsaved.Inallcases,somemoneycouldgooutsidethearea,tointermediateproducersandproductionfactorslocatedoutsidethearea(i.e.,it‘leaks’outofthelocaleconomy).
However,somewillremainwithinthearea:
localtourismindustrieswillhirenewlocalworkers(payingabiggernumberofwages)anddemandadditionalgoodsfromlocalproducers.Asaresult,localoutputincreases,employmentopportunitiesincreaseandlocalincomerises(duetotheincreaseinthenumberofwages).Thesearetheso-calledindirecteffects.
Theincreaseinemploymentbringstoanincreaseinthetotalincomeoflocalresidents.
Partofthisincomeissavedandpartisspentinconsumptiongoods.Thisinturngeneratesadditionaldemandwhich,asbefore,translatesintoadditionalproductionandemployment(andsoon).Thesearetheso-calledinducedeffects.Indirectandinducedeffectsareoftencalledsecondaryeffects.Theeffectoftourismonthelocaleconomyisinfluencedbyafewkeyfactors:
Thecharacteristicsandthespendingpatternsofthelocaltourists,affectingthedirectimpactontheeconomy.Essentialfeatureshereinclude:
Thereasonfortravel(touriststravellingforculturalreasonsspendmore/lessandputmore/lesspressureonnaturalandculturalresourcesthansun&beachtourists);
Thelengthofstay(touristsstayingforthedayarelikelytospendasmallershareoftotalexpenditureinlocallyproducedgoods);Theaccommodationchosen(hotelsaremoreexpensivethancampsites).
Thecharacteristicsofthetourismindustriesandofthelocaleconomy.Keyfeatureshereincludetheabilityoflocaleconomytosatisfythedemandoftourismindustries,aswellasthesizeandthesharesoftourismindustriesthatarelocallyowned.Theextentoftheindirecteffectsdependsonthesizeoftheareaunderstudy(e.g.,municipal,regional,national)andontheextenttowhichbusinessfirmsintheareasupplyeachotherwithgoodsandservices(themorelikelythemorediversifiedandinterlinkedisthelocaleconomy).Ingeneral,thesmallerthescaleoftheeconomyandthehighertheshareofinitialexpenditurethatleaksoutofthelocalarea,thefeweraretheselinkagesandthesmalleraretheindirecteffects.Moreover,themagnitudeofindirectandinducedeffectsdependsontheshareofcapital,landandlabourthatislocallyowned.Forinstance,smallfamily-ownedhotelsandrestaurantsaremorelikelytobuylocalintermediateinputsthanchainhotelsandtouristvillages.Iffactorsarelocallyowned,theirremunerations–profits,rentandwages–willstaylocallyandlocalcommunitywillstronglybenefitfromthem.
3.Direct,indirectandinducedbenefitsandeffectsontheeconomytriggeredbytourist
SpendingSeveraltypesofmultiplierarecommonlyused:
Sales(ortransactions)multiplierreferstotheeffectonbusinessturnover(valueofbusinessturnovercreatedbyaunitaryincreaseintourismexpenditure);Outputmultiplierreferstotheeffectonthelevelofoutputoftheeconomy.Withrespecttothesalesmultiplieritdoesnotonlytakeintoaccounttheimpactonturnoveroflocalbusinesses,butalsoanychangesinthelevelofstockstheyhold.Thiscanbeusefulinidentifyingpotentialsupplyshortfalls,orbottlenecks;Governmentrevenuemultiplierreferstotheeffectsongovernmentalrevenuesfromallsources(e.g.,directandindirecttaxation,duties,licensesandfees);Incomemultiplierreferstotheeffectonincomes(salesnetofintermediateconsumption,includingwages,salariesandprofit).Thisiscommonlyregardedasthemostimportantindicatoroftheeconomicperformanceoftourismindustry.Incomemultipliersvarydependingonwhethertheyincludeornotincomesaccruingtononnationalsresidingintheregionunderinvestigation,andwhethertheyincludeornotincomeaccruingtogovernments.Themultipliercanbemeasuredasdisposableincome–theincomeavailabletoindividualstospendorsave,whichisnetoftax–orvalueaddedincome–theincomewhichincludestaxandotherexpenditureswhicharedefinedaccordingtonationalincomeaccountingrules;
Employmentmultiplierreferstotheeffectonemployment.Itisusuallyderivedfromtheoutputorincomemultipliers.Itcanbeexpressedastheratioofthenumberof‘total’additionaljobs(e.g.,directandindirectordirectandsecondary)toeitherthenumberofdirectjobs(‘ratio’multiplier)ortotheinitialtouristexpenditure(Keynesianmultiplier).Employmentcanbemeasuredintermsoffulltimeequivalentjobs,ortheactualnumberofjobsincludingpart-timejobs.
SupposeadditionaltouristexpenditureofEUR1milliongeneratingEUR2.5millionofextraoutputandEUR500000ofdirectandsecondaryincome.Italsocreates200jobsdirectlyand180secondarily.InKeynesiantermsthemultipliersare,respectively:
2.5(output),0.5(income)and3.8jobsfor10000EURoftouristexpenditure(employment).
Onthe