Unit 6 Risks新编大学英语第二版第四册课文翻译培训资料.docx

Unit 6 Risks新编大学英语第二版第四册课文翻译培训资料.docx

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Unit6Risks新编大学英语第二版第四册课文翻译培训资料

Unit6Risks

RisksandYou

Atsometimeorother,allofushaveplayedthepartofahypochondriac,imaginingthatwehavesometerriblediseaseonthestrengthofveryminorsymptoms.Somepeoplejusthavetohearaboutanewdiseaseandtheybegincheckingthemselvestoseeiftheymaybesufferingfromit.Butfearofdiseaseisnotouronlyfear,andneitherisriskofdiseasetheonlyriskwerun.Modernlifeisfullofallmannerofthreats-toourlives,ourpeaceofmind,ourfamilies,andourfuture.Andfromthesethreatscomequestionsthatwemustposetoourselves:

IsthefoodIbuysafe?

Aretoysformychildrenlikelytohurtthem?

Shouldmyfamilyavoidsmokedmeats?

AmIlikelytoberobbedonvacations?

Ouruncertaintiesmultiplyindefinitely.

Anxietyabouttherisksoflifeisabitlikehypochondria;inboth,thefearoranxietyfeedsonpartialinformation.Butonesharpdifferenceexistsbetweenthetwo.Thehypochondriaccanusuallyturntoaphysiciantogetadefinitiveclarificationofthesituation-eitheryouhavethesuspecteddiseaseoryoudon't.Itismuchmoredifficultwhenanxietyaboutotherformsofriskisconcerned,becausewithmanyrisks,thesituationisnotassimple.

Risksarealmostalwaysamatterofprobabilityratherthancertainty.Youmayask,"ShouldIwearaseatbelt?

"Ifyou'regoingtohaveahead-oncollision,ofcourse.Butwhatifyougethitfromthesideandenduptrappedinsidethevehicle,unabletoescapebecauseofadamagedseatbeltmechanism?

Sodoesthismeanthatyoushouldspendtheextramoneyforanairbag?

Again,inhead-oncollisions,itmaywellsaveyourlife.Butwhatifthebagaccidentallyinflateswhileyouaredrivingdownthehighway,thuscausinganaccidentthatwouldneverhaveoccurredotherwise?

Allofthisisanotherwayofsayingthatnothingwedoiscompletelysafe.Therearerisks,oftenpotentiallyseriousones,associatedwitheveryhobbywehave,everyjobwetake,everyfoodweeat-inotherwords,witheveryaction.Butthefactthattherearerisksassociatedwitheverythingwearegoingtododoesnot,orshouldnot,reduceustotremblingneurotics.Someactionsareriskierthanothers.Thepointistoinformourselvesabouttherelevantrisksandthenactaccordingly.

Forexample,largercarsaregenerallysaferthansmallonesincollisions.Buthowmuchsafer?

Theansweristhatyouareroughlytwiceaslikelytodieinaseriouscrashina

smallcarthaninalargeone.Yetlargercarsgenerallycostmorethansmallones（andalsousemoregas,thusincreasingtheenvironmentalrisks!

）,sohowdowedecidewhenthereducedrisksareworththeaddedcosts?

Theultimateriskavoidermight,forinstance,buyatankoranarmoredcar,thusminimizingtheriskofdeathorinjuryinacollision.Butistheaddedcostandinconvenienceworththedifferenceinprice,evensupposingyoucouldaffordit?

Wecannotbegintoanswersuchquestionsuntilwehaveafeelforthelevelofrisksinquestion.Sohowdowemeasurethelevelofarisk?

Somepeopleseemtothinkthattheanswerisasimplenumber.Weknow,forinstance,thatabout25,000peopleperyeardieinautomobileaccidents.Bycontrast,onlyabout300dieperyearinmineaccidentsanddisasters.Doesthatmeanthatridinginacarismuchriskierthanmining?

Notnecessarily.Thefactisthatsome200millionAmericansregularlyrideinautomobilesintheUnitedStateseveryyear;perhaps700,000areinvolvedinmining.Therelevantfigurethatweneedtoassessariskisaratioorfraction.Thenumeratorofthefractiontellsushowmanypeoplewerekilledorharmedastheresultofaparticularactivityoveracertainperiodoftime;thedenominatortellsushowmanypeoplewereinvolvedinthatactivityduringthattime.Allrisklevelsarethusratiosorfractions,withvaluesbetween0（norisk）and1（totallyrisky）.

Byreducingallriskstoratiosorfractionsofthissort,wecanbegintocomparedifferentsortsofrisks-likeminingversusridinginacar.Thelargerthisratio,thatis,thecloseritisto1,theriskiertheactivityinquestion.Inthecasejustdiscussed,wewouldfindtherelativesafetyofcartravelandcoalminingbydividingthenumbersofliveslostineachbythenumberofpeopleparticipatingineach.Here,itisclearthattheriskinessoftravelingbycarisabout1deathper10,000passengers;withmining,therisklevelisabout4deathsper10,000miners.Soalthoughfarmorepeoplearekilledincaraccidentsthaninmining,thelatterturnsouttobefourtimesriskierthantheformer.Thoseratiosenableustocomparetherisksofactivitiesorsituationsasdifferentasapplesandoranges.Ifyouareopposedtorisks,youwillwanttochooseyouractivitiesbyfocusingonthesmall-ratioexposures.Ifyouarereckless,thenyouarenotlikelytobeafraid