中英文双语关于经济增长外商直接投资FDI和贸易之间的关系毕业设计论文外文文献翻译成品.docx

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中英文双语关于经济增长外商直接投资FDI和贸易之间的关系毕业设计论文外文文献翻译成品

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外文标题：

Relationshipsbetweeneconomicgrowth,foreigndirectinvestmentandtrade:

evidencefromChina

外文作者：

PeterBurridge&P.J.N.Sinclair

文献出处:

AppliedEconomics.2018.34（11）:

1433-40（如觉得年份太老，可改为近2年，毕竟很多毕业生都这样做）

英文1898单词，10100字符（字符就是印刷符），中文2874汉字。

Relationshipsbetweeneconomicgrowth,foreigndirectinvestmentandtrade:

evidencefromChina

Thisstudyinvestigatesthecausallinksbetweentrade,economicgrowthandinwardforeigndirectinvestment（FDI）inChinaattheaggregatelevel.Theintegrationandcointegrationpropertiesofquarterlydataareanalysed.Long-runrelationshipsbetweengrowth,exports,importsandFDIareidentifiedinacointegrationframework,inwhichthispaperbi-directionalcausalitybetweeneconomicgrowth,FDIandexports.Economicdevelopment,exportsandFDIappeartobemutuallyreinforcingundertheopen-doorpolicy.

I.INTRODUCTION

Sincestartingtheprocessofeconomicreform,andopeninguptotheoutsideworldin1979,Chinahasbecomeoneofthefastestgrowingeconomiesintheworld.ExternaltradeandGDPgrewonaveragebyabout15%and9%p.a.,respectively,from1979to1997andChinaisnowthelargestrecipientofforeigndirectinvestment（FDI）inthedevelopingworld.1ManystudieshaveinvestigatedtherelationsbetweenChina'sinwardFDIandotheraspectsoftheChineseeconomy.However,therehasbeenlittledetailedempiricalstudyofcausallinksbetweenFDI,tradeandeconomicgrowthinChina,especiallyinamultivariateframework.UnderstandingthecausalconnectionsbetweenthesephenomenaisimportantfordevelopmentstrategiesinChinaandotherdevelopingcountries.

Thecontributionofthispaper,therefore,istoexaminethecausalrelationshipbetweeneconomicgrowth,tradeandFDIinChinabyusingmultivariateGrangercausalitytestsinacointegrationframework.Thisstudyteststheintegrationpropertiesofthedata,thenemploystheJohansenproceduretodetectthenumberofcointegratingvectors,andthentestscausalityintheresultingrestrictedVARECM.

II.METHODOLOGY

Thisstudyisinterestedintheinterplayoffourvariables,GDP,FDI,Imports,andExports;tosetthescene,therefore,consideraVARinvolvingfourvariables,W；X；Y；andZ.Inastationarysetting,aGrangercausalitytestinsuchastructurewouldbecarriedout（followingGhartey,1993）viathefollowingregressions:

Thisstudythustestsforunitroots,fitsaVAR,selectinglaglengthviatheusualcombinationofresidualdiagnosticsandcoefficientF-tests,testsforcointegratingrank,andfinallytestsforcausality.

Anticipatingslightly,sinceitisfoundthatthedataarecointegratedwithrankequalto2,ignoringthehigher-orderdynamicsandtheseasonalpattern,Equations1-4abovecanbere-writteninVARECMform:

III.DATA

Quarterlyexports（EX）andimports（IM）from1981:

1to1997:

4areobtainedfromtheInternationalFinancialStatisticsYearbook.Wetreatexportsandimportsseparatelytoallowforthepossibilitythattheirinfluenceisasymmetric.QuarterlyinwardFDIdataforthesameperiodareacquiredfromvarioussources,includingtheChinaStateStatisticalBureauandJournalofInternationalTrade（inChinese）.TheseseriesaredeflatedusingtheGDPdeflator（1990=100）.NoquarterlyormonthlyGDPstatisticsforChinaareavailable,onlymonthlygrossindustrialoutput（GIO）at1990constantprices,sothisstudymustconstructanestimatedquarterlyseries.FollowingLiuetal.（1997）,ithasbeenfoundthattheannualgrowthpatternofGDPissimilartothatofGIO,andtheGDPestimateconstructedasfollows.Letgt,t=1981;1982，...betheannualGDP/GIOratio,andGI〇qbethequarterlyvalueofGIO（sumofthreeconsecutivemonths）,thenthequarterlyGDPdataarecalculatedbythefollowingequation:

IV.EMPIRICALRESULTS

Testingforintegration

Table1givestheresultsofADFunitroottestswithlaglengthchosenbydownwardsearch（t-testonthelongestlag）.Thisstudyworksthroughoutwiththelogarithmsofthevariables,sothat®rstdierencescorrespondtogrowthrates.Thenullhypothesisofaunitrootinthelogarithmisnotrejectedforanyofthefourvariables.However,eachoftheloggedseriesisstationaryinfirstdifferences,soallthevariablesareintegratedoforderone.Therefore,thecausalitytestsinthispaperarebasedonestimationofEquation5withseasonaldummiesandfurtherlaggeddifferencesontheRHS

Maintainingacointegrationrankoftwo,twonormalizingandtwoexclusionrestrictionsforidentificationareintroduced;thatis,thisstudynormalizesonLGDPinEquation7below,andonLFDIinEquation8,andexcludesLFDIfromEquation7andLGDPfromEquation8,whichleadstothecointegratingrelationsbelow:

whereSDrepresentsseasonaldummyvariables.

AsisapparentfromFig.1,thereisacommonrisingtrend,andthemostplausibleinterpretationofEquation7isthatGDPandexternaltradearebroadlyproportional.

Testingforweakexogeneityandcausality

Tables4and5reporttheweakexogeneityandcausalitytests,inwhich,inthenotationofEquation5,Wt=LFDI，Xt=LGDP;Yt=LIMandZt=LEX.

Noticethatthefourweakexogeneity（weakcausality-afterHallandMilne）tests（thateachsuccessiverowofthematrix,a,iszero）massivelyrejectthenullhypothesisforeachofthefourvariables.Therefore,thisstudyconcludesthateachisweaklycausedbytheotherthree,whichimpliesinturnthatthereisabi-directionalGrangercausalitybetweenallpairsofvariables.ThisconclusionisreinforcedbytheresultsinTable5.TherethisstudyreportsWaldtestsofthehypothesisthatallhigher-orderlaggedcoe-cientsintheVARECM,oneachvariableinturn,arezero-thatis,thesecondsetofrestrictionsimpliedbyGrangernon-causality（seeagainHallandMilne,1994;600,Equation14）.TheseWaldtestsrevealbi-directionalcausallinksintheshort-rundynamicsbetweenGDP,ExportsandFDI,butonlyaone-waycausallinkappearsrunningfromthesethreevariablestoImports.

Furtherinterpretingtheempiricalresults

Thereisintenseinterestinthecausalconnections,ifany,betweeneconomicgrowth,FDI,exportsandimports,especiallyinthecontextofdevelopmentstrategies.TheresultsreportedinTables4and5appeartoconfirmtheexistenceofcausalconnectionsinbothdirectionsforthreevariables,GDP,FDIandexports.TheseresultsareconsistentwithpreviousfindingsthatFDItakesplaceinChinabecausegrowthandforeigntradeprospectshavemadethecountrymoreattractivetoforeigninvestors,reflectedhereinthecausallinkfromgrowth,andexportstoFDI（BroadmanandSun,1997;Sun,1998）.Ontheotherhand,two-waycausallinksbetweenthesevariablesalsoimplyFDIaectsgrowthasfoundnotonlyinthecaseoftheUKandGermany（BarrellandPain,1997）,butalsoin69developingcountries（Borensztinetal.,1998）.

ExportpromotionisamajoraimofFDIpolicyinChina.Thegovernmenthascreatedanexport-promotingtraderegimeforFIEswithminimumadministrativeinterference.TheshareofFIEs’exportsontotalexportshasincreasedsubstantiallyduringthe1990s,andaccountedfor41%in1997.Thereforeitisnotsurprisingto®ndtwo-waycausallinksbetweenexportsandFDI.However,intheshort-rundynamics,onlyaunidirectionalcausallinkexistsrunningfromGDP,exportsandFDItoimports,suggestingthateconomicgrowth,exportexpansionandinflowsofFDIaectimportsintheshortrun,ratherthantheotherwayround.ThepossiblereasonforthisisthattheChinesegovernmentstillrestrictsimportsthroughimportplanning,tariffsandnon-tariffbarriers.Thismaycauseeconomicdistortionandineciency（Corden,1997）,sothattheimmediateeectofimportsonGDP,FDIandexportsislikelytobetoosmalltobevisibleattheaggregatelevel.

V.CONCLUSION

Multivariatecausalitytests,appliedtoquarterlydatafrom1981:

1to1997:

4,conductedintheVARECMframeworkshowthattwo-waycausalconnectionsexistbetweeneconomicgrowth,FDIandexports,withratherweakerevidenceoffeedbackfromimportstotheotherthree.TheresultsalsoshowthatfailuretoaccountforinteractionbetweenFDI,growthandexternaltradecanproducespuriousresultsintheanalysisoftherelationshipsbetweenthesefourvariables,asmaybeevidentinsomepreviouslyreportedstudies.

REFERENCES

Barrell,R.andPain,N.（1997）Foreigndirectinvestment,technologicalchange,andeconomicgrowthwithinEurope,TheEconomicJournal,107,1770-85.

Ben-David,D.andLoewy,M.（1997）Freetrade,growthandconvergence,NBERWorkingPaper,No.6095.

Borensztin,E.,Gregorio,J.andLee,J.（1998）Howdoesforeigndirectinvestmentaecteconomicgrowth,JournalofInternationalEconomics,45,115-35.

Broadman,GandSun,X.（1997）ThedistributionofforeigndirectinvestmentinChina,WorldEconomy,20,339-61.ChinaStateStatisticalBureau（1988）Monthlydataoftotalvalueofindustrialoutputfrom1981:

1to1997:

4,TheCentreof

EconomicInformation,（1998）Beijing.ChinaStateStatisticalBureau,QuarterlyinwardFDIdata,DivisionofForeignEconomicRelations,Beijing.

Corden,W.M.（1997）TradePolicyandEconomicWelfare,2nded.,ClarendonPress,Oxford.

Dees,S.（1998）ForeigndirectinvestmentinChina:

determinantsandeffects,EconomicsofPlanning,31,175-94.

Ghartey,E.（1993）Causalrelationshipbetweenexportsandeconomicgrowth:

someempiricalevidenceinTaiwan,JapanandtheUS,AppliedEconomics,25,1145-52.

Hall,S.andMilne,A.（1994）Therelevanceofp-staranalysistoUKmonetarypolicy,TheEconomicJournal,104，597-604.

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