The development prospects of Chinas civil airconditioning.docx
《The development prospects of Chinas civil airconditioning.docx》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《The development prospects of Chinas civil airconditioning.docx(22页珍藏版)》请在冰豆网上搜索。
ThedevelopmentprospectsofChinascivilairconditioning
ThedevelopmentprospectsofChina'scivilair-conditioning
Abstract:
Inthispaper,scenarioanalysis,onChina’scivilair-conditioningin2020madethedevelopmentprospectsofpredictiveanalysis.Pointedoutthatthedemandforairconditioningandenergyconstraintsofahugegapbetweentheproposed“opensource,cost-cutting”approach.
Keywords:
civilair-conditioningthedevelopmentprospectsoftheenergy
OneofChina’smacro-economicandurbandevelopmentscenariosarecivil
ShiliuDaPartyclearlyputforwardtheconcretedeploymentofChina’sthirdstrategicobjective,namely,in2020,“buildingamoderatelyprosperoussocietyinoptimizingthestructureandefficiency,basedon2000grossdomesticproductquadrupled,basicallyaccomplishindustrialization.“
ThisambitiousdevelopmentgoalsofChina’seconomyisboundtohaveaprofoundimpactatalllevels.
1.1EconomicStructure
Inthenext15years,firstproductionisexpectedtovalueaddedinthediminishingproportionofGDP;therapidgrowthofthetertiaryindustry,secondaryindustryshareofvalueaddedinGDPgrowthwilloccurbefore,afterloweringtrend.ThefirstproductionisexpectedtovalueaddedinGDP,theproportionin2020was13.6%;thesecondaryindustryintheGDP,theproportionin2020was42.9~46%;thetertiaryindustryinGDP,theproportionin202041%~43%in205051%~56%.
1.2ofGDPinnominalexchangerate
AccordingtoChina’soveralleconomicstrategicplanning,by2010,China’sGDPreached17.88trillionyuanRMB,2020reached26.82trillionyuanRMB.Theaverageannualgrowthrateoftwophases,respectively7.1%and4.14%.Shouldbenotedthatinrecentyears,drivenbyexcessiveinvestmentinmakingsuper-normalgrowthincapitalformation,aseriesofaccumulatedgraduallyexposedtheinefficiency,duplicationofinvalidformofcapital,alargenumberofinventorybacklog,theinternationalanti-dumpingonChina’ssuppressionofenterprises,corporateprofitabilitydecline,andtherapiddevelopmentofresourcesandenvironmentaldestruction,etc.allcontributetotheeconomicgrowthratewillshowadownwardtrendoftheimportantfactors.
1.3Population
ThetotalscaleofChina’spopulationisexpectedasfollows:
in2010approximately1.4billion;in2020around1.5billion.
1.4PercapitaGDP
TheRMBexchangeratepolicyisbeingadjustedisnolongerpegtheyuanU.S.dollars.Therefore,China’sGDPinthefutureinaccordancewithinternationallyacceptedstatisticalnecessarilypurchasingpowerparity(PPP)standard.IfyoupresstheWorldBankstatistics,China’s2003percapitaGDP(byPPPterms)hadreached4990U.S.dollars,surpassingtheyeartheleveloflow-andmiddle-incomecountries(4320U.S.dollars),whichisclearlyovervalued.Ifreferencetomiddle-incomecountries,percapitaGDPpurchasingpowerparitycalculationsthanthenominalexchangeratecalculatedfromtheratiowas1.9timeshigherthanin2010and2020China’spercapitaGDPwillreachrespectively2932and4104U.S.dollarsin2020,Chinawillentertheranksofmoderatelydevelopedcountries.
1.5Urbanization
ThelevelofurbanizationinChinafrom1985to22%in2004to41.8%paceofurbanizationistheworldtwiceoverthesameperiod.However,in2000theaverageworldlevelofurbanizationhasalreadyreached47%,ofwhich50%ofmedium-developedcountries,high-incomecountries79%.Theprocessofurbanizationfromtheworld’spointofview,urbanizationfrom36%to60%ofacceleratedphase,therefore,China’surbanizationratewillbeimproved.Ifyoupressfrom1985to2004theaveragegrowthbetweentheurbanizationrate,in2020morethan50%ofChina’surbanizationrate.AccordingtotheStateCouncilDevelopmentResearchCenter2020,whenChina’surbanizationrateisabout60%(58.7%).
1.6HousingConstruction
Asoftheendof2003,housingconstructionincitiesandtownsatotalareaof14.091billionm2,ofwhich8.911billionofresidentialflooraream2,totalareaofhousingconstructionaccountedfor63.24%.
AccordingtotheMinistryofConstructiontolivewell-offsocietyobjectives,canbeanalyzedtobe2010and2020oftheconstructionarea.
Table1China’surbanhousingandpublicbuildingsinthedevelopmentofprediction
Thelevelofurbanization%
Urbanpopulationof100million
Urbanpercapitahousingfloorspacem2
Thetotalareaofurbanresidentialbuildings100millionm2
Urbanpercapitaflooraream2
Thetotalareaof100millionurbanpublicbuildingsm2
Thetotalareaof100millionm2ofurbancivil
Table1intheforecastfortheyear2020isoneofthelowerlimitsetbyurbanizationscenarios;whilePrediction2isbasedonthehighurbanizationratelimitandawell-offlivinggoalsettingscenarios.
2Chineseairconditioningmarketdemandanddevelopmentprospect
2.1Developmentofresidentialair-conditioning
RoomairconditionerproductioninChinastartedin1978.1991~1993enteredtheinitialstage,from1994to1996,enteredarapiddevelopmentperiod,from1997to2003intothehighstageofdevelopment,productionanaverageannualincreaseof24~59%.Aftermorethantenyearsofdevelopment,China’sroomairconditionerindustryalreadyhasmorethanhalfoftheworld’stotaloutputofproductionscale,tobecometrulytheworld’sfirstroomairconditionerproducer.
AccordingtotheJapaneseair-conditioningheatingandrefrigerationnews(JARN)predictsthatin2004theworld’saroomairconditioner(RAC)andcell-typeairconditioners(PAC)ofthetotaldemandfor56millionunits,ofwhichChinais20millionunits,accountingfor36%ofthe.AscanbeseenfromFigure2,China’soutputofacountryhasexceededtheactualneedsoftheworld,China’sdomesticair-conditionerhasexcesscapacity.
Figure2showsthattheproductionofroomair-conditionersinChinaanannualrateof40.5%.TheFigure3reflectsthecityforevery100householdsinChinahaveavolumeofroomair-conditionergrowth.In2002,only10provincesandmunicipalitiesofChina’sairconditionerhasavolumeof100familiesformorethan50,butby2003,itincreasedto16provincesandcities.Growthisveryfierce(seeFigure3),buttheaverageannualgrowthrateof27.04%,ornotkeepupwithproductiongrowth.
Thestudyfoundthattheownerofthefamilyroomair-conditionerspercapitaGDPgrowthinvolumeandhaveagoodlinearcorrelation.Figure4isawriterinShanghaioftheanalysisofthecorrelation.WhenthepercapitaGDPreached4,000to4,500dollars,theresidentialair-conditioningtobeuniversal(uptoanexistingdwellingunits).
Chinaistheworld’slargestcountryintheheatwiththeeasternregionandtheworld,comparedtothesamelatitude,summeroverheatingandwintercolder.Inourdenselypopulatedcity,indoorneedbothwinterheating,summercoolingneeds.Well-offsocietyinChinaforresidential,willsatisfytheneedtoachievetothecomfortablesurvivalmode.Agoodindoorthermalenvironmentisanimportantpartofimprovingthequalityoflife.Therefore,thepopularityofresidentialair-conditioningisaninevitabletrend.
2.2TheDevelopmentofcentralairconditioning
AccordingtoChinaRefrigerationandAirConditioningIndustryAssociationstatistics,from2000to2003Nationalrefrigerationandairconditioningindustry,averageannualeconomicgrowthrateishigherthanChina’sGDPgrowthrate.
Table22000-2003hostcountrycentralairconditioningproduction(units/sets)
Piston-typewaterchiller
ScrewChillers
Centrifugalchillers
Steam/hotwater-typelithiumbromidechiller
Direct-firedlithiumbromidechiller
Air-cooledchillerunit
Householdcentralairconditioningunitwithhotandcoldwater
Total
Averageannualgrowthrateof
Note:
The2003air-cooledchillerunitstatisticsgroupedinascrew-type,piston-stylehotandcoldwater,centralair-conditioningunitandindoor-stylehotandcoldwaterunitthreestatistics.
Combinedair-conditioningunit
Newairhandlingunits
FanCoilUnit
Total
Averageannualgrowthrateof
Table32000-2003centralizedair-conditioningsystemterminalequipment,thenationalproduction(units/sets)
AccordingtohistoricalstatisticsofChinaRefrigerationandAirConditioningIndustryAssociationsurveydataandsummaryofkeymanufacturingenterprises,in1993and2003China’spower-drivenchillersyieldanaverageannualgrowthrateof13.4%,absorptionchillersyieldanaverageannualgrowthrateof16.2%,includingdirect-firedmachineproducesanaveragegrowthrateofashighas18.7%,higherthantheelectric-drivenchillersoutputgrowthrates.Overall,from1993to2003thegrowthoftotaloutputofChina’srefrigerationunitsfasterthaneconomicgrowth.
2.3Forecastofthedevelopmentofresidentialair-conditioning
Accordingtotheauthor’sanalysisofair-conditionersper100urbanresidentshaveavolumeandpercapitadisposableincomeofurbanresidentsandpercapitaelectricityconsumptionoflifeofthesetwofactorsshowedapositivecorrelation,thecorrelationcoefficient0.9928and0.9681,respectively.Therefore,air-conditionersper100urbanresidentsinpossessionasthedependentvariable,percapitadisposableincomeofurbanresidentsandpercapitaelectricityconsumptionoflife,astwoindependentvariables,youcancreatemultiplelinearregressionmodel.Whichcanbein2010forevery100residentsinChina’surbanairconditionerhasacapacityof125.8