中国和全球化.docx

中国和全球化.docx

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中国和全球化

ChinaandGlobalisation

Author:

MichaelDauderstadtandJurgenStettenTime:

July/August2005

Sincetheinitiationofeconomicreformsin1978Chinahasbecomeoneoftheworld’sfastestgrowingeconomiesandhasemergedasaglobaleconomicandtradepower.Whataretheimplicationsfortheworldeconomy,inparticularforthedistributionofincomeandwealth?

HowwillChinacontributetoshapingnotonlytheglobalisedworldeconomybutalsotheinstitutionsandpoliciesofglobalgovernance?

Recently,thatsectorhasitselfstartedtoinvestabroad.China’slargestcomputerfirm,Lenovo,expressedinterestinbuyingIBM’sPCbusiness.By2003,totalChineseinvestmentabroadamountedtoUS$37billion.Thusfar,migrationtoandfromChinahasbeenrelativelylow.TheimmigrationrequiredtomeettheneedsofChina’sboomingnewindustrieshaslargelybeenfromChina’sowndomestichinterland,plusalimitednumberofforeignerswhoworkasexpatriates.EmigrationfromChinacouldpotentiallybehugebutisstilllimitedthankstoofficialrestrictions.However,Chinesetourismhasbecomemoreandmoreimportant,particularlyinneighbouringcountries.Itcouldalsobe-comeamajorsourceofexportrevenueforcountriessuchastheUSAorEurope,balancingpaymentsmadeforimportsofChinesemanufacturedgoods.

However,itisbasicallythesizeofChina’spopulationthatisincreasinglyturningglobalisationintoaChineseprocess.Chinaisactuallystillaverypoorcountrywithapercapitaincome（atppp）ofUS$4900.Buttheoverwhelmingnumberofabout1.3billion

“capita”makesittheworld’ssecondlargesteconomy.Thesizeofitslabourforceiscorrespondinglylargeandstill,toalargeextent,madeupoftherightagecohort.China’slabourpoolisunderemployedandmarkedbyahugesurplus.ToquoteSandraPolaskioftheCEIP,“…ifallU.S.jobsweremovedtoChina,therewouldstillbesurpluslabourinChina.”Iftherewereatrulyglobalmarketforlabour,Chinawouldbeitslargestsupplier,exertingenormousdownwardpressureonwagesandworkingconditions.Ofcourse,thereisnofullyintegratedworldmarketforlabour;butwewilldealwiththesepotentialthreatsbelow.AslongasChina,withitshugepopulationandeconomicpotential,waswithdrawnfromtheworld,ithadverylittleimpactonthecourseoftheglobaleconomyandglobalisation.Toalargeextent,thenewimportanceofChinareflectsa“returntonormalcy”,ifweunderstandacertainlevelofeconomicopennessandintegrationasthenormalsituationofacountry.

Theworldhasto,andwillcontinuetohaveto,adjusttothewiderangeofopportunities（andrisks）thatemergewithamoreopenChina.Whenafifthoftheworldpopulationapproachestheglobalaveragepercapitaincome（whichisalmostdoublethecurrentChinesefigure,evenatppp,letaloneatexchangerates,whichisalmostfiveashighastheChineseaverage）,thenhugeshiftsintheglobalpatternofproductionandconsumptionmustbeanticipated.GermanypresentlyexportsalmostUS$10000percapitaperyear.IfChinaapproachedthatfigure,itsexportswouldamounttoaboutUS$13trillion（i.e.150%ofpresentUSGDP）.ThecomplaintstheworldisutteringaresimilartothoseheardwhenJapanortheotherAsian“tigers”startedtopouroutexports.Meanwhile,bothsideshaveadjusted:

theoldrichbyrestructuringand/orreducingwork;thenewindustrialpowersbyraisingtheirincomesto,orevenbeyond,theleveloftheotherOECDcountries.Buthowlongwilltheadjustmenttake,inparticularinChinaitself?

TheGlobalisationoftheChineseEconomyWhiletheworldisconcernedaboutanemergingChina,Chinaischangingrapidly,inparticularbecauseithasopeneduptotheworld.Formally,thatproc-essculminatedinChina’saccessiontotheWTOinMeasuringChinaMoststatisticsonChinaareshaky.

Officialdataandexpertestimatesvarydramatically.EvenbasicindicatorssuchasGDPgrowthrates,employmentorforeigntradeareopentointensivedebateandcontradictoryestimates,whichcanvarybymorethan100%.Beyondthatuncertainty,thereisamorebasicandmuchmorerelevantdifferenceinyardsticks,namelythatbetweenexchangeratesandpurchasingpowerparities（PPP）.Measuredintermsofexchangerates,Chinaisabigbutnotverybigeconomywithaverylowpercapitaincome.Measuredatppp,Chinaisalreadytheworld’ssecondbiggesteconomy,afactwhichhasservedtoreducethenumberofitspoorsubstantially.

Withdevelopmentandintegrationintoworldmarkets,Chineseandworldmarketpricesareslowlyconverging,thusreducingthebigdifferencebetweenthetwoyardticks.Butaslongasthedifferencepersists,ithashugeeffects.Lowincomes,inparticularwages,measuredintermsofexchangeratesareattractiveforforeigninvestors,buttheymeanlowpurchasingpoweringlobalmarkets.Themuchhigherpppincomeindicateshighrealconsumptionofrealgoodssuchasfood,clothingand–directlyorindirectly–rawmaterials.Itisprobablyabetterindicatorforpollution,too.

Inspiteofthatlargeshare,theabsolutefigures,aboutUS$300,forexports/capitaarestilllow（3%oftheGermanvalue!

）becauseofChina’slowGDP（inparticularwhenmeasuredintermsofex-changerates）.ExportsandimportsasashareofGDPincreasedfrom33%in1993to60%in2003（incomparison,Japan’ssharegrewfrom14%to18%duringthesameperiod）.Grossforeigndirectinvestmentin-creasedfrom1.2%ofGDPin1990to4.9%in2001.Chinastillcontrolsinwardandoutwardcapitalflows,thoughnotcompletely.Ontheonehand,itisslowlyliberalisingitscapitalaccount;ontheotherhand,itcannotpreventcapitalinflowsdisguisedbytransferpricingandtheoverbillingofexportsorunderbillingofimports.ThisallowsChinatomaintainthepresentexchangeratevis-à-vistheUSdollarinspiteofagrowingstockofforeignexchangereservesthatresultslargelyfromcapitalinflowsandtradesurpluses.Buttheexportsurpluses,mainlywiththeUSmarket,havecontributedlesstotheaccumulationofreservesthanthecapitalinflows.

Since1995,tradesurpluseshaveaveragedUS$30billionperyear,whileinmostyearsFDIinflowshavebeenhigherthanUS$40billion.Atthesametime,ChinaispayingannuallybetweenUS$10and20billioninfactorincometoforeigninvestors.However,thispictureiscontestedbysomeexperts,whoestimatethatChina’stradesurplusisaboutfourtimes（!

）higherthantheChinesestatisticsindicate.TheybasetheirmuchhigherfiguresonthetradedataofChina’stradingpartners.

Thesediscrepanciescouldpossiblybeexplainedinpartbytrade-relatedactivitiesthatdisguisecapitalinflows.ThefactthattherearelargecapitalflowsevenwithoutfullcapitalaccountliberalisationmightexplainwhyChinaistryingtokeepitsexchangerateasitisandtoaccumulateahugestockofforeignexchange.Capitalinflowscould–undercertaincircumstancessuchaspoliticaloreconomiccrisis–turnintooutflowswhichwouldbeashardtocontrolastheformerinflows.Withoutcountervailingpolicies,acapitalflightofthiskindcouldprovokeacrisissimilartotheAsiancrisisof1997.GiventheshakinessofChina’sfinancialsystem,withitshugeburdenofnon-performingloans,suchafinancialorbankingcrisisisfarfromimprobableandcouldinterruptChina’sgrowthdramatically.ExportsfromChinaarelargelyproducedbysubsidiariesofforeignfirms.In2002,foreignaffiliatesaccountedforabout50%ofallChineseexports（upfrom9%in1989）.Inhigh-techindustries,thesharewasevenhigher,reachingmorethan90%（e.g.mobilephones）.

Theforeign-fundedfirmsarealsoabsorbingalargeshareofallChineseimports（5%in1985;15%in1989;52%in2000）.AbouthalfoftheoverallvalueofChina’sforeigntradeisthusrelatedtoFDI.In2002,foreign-ownedfirmsproduced28.9%ofthegrossoutputvalueofallindustrialenterprisesinChina（upfrom11.7%in1995）.MostofthatforeigninvestmentandcorrespondingexportproductiontakesplaceintheexportprocessingzonesthatarelocatedinthecoastalareasofeasternChina.Therapidgrowthoftheseexplodingurbanisedregionsintheeasthasledtoadramaticincreaseinregional,sectoralandpersonalincomedisparities.Whiletheeasternregionshaveexperienceddramaticgrowth,theruralhinter-land,whichhadbeenthefirstandmajorbeneficiaryofthemarket-orientedreformsduringthe1980s,hasfallenbackinrelativeterms.Labourhasmovedfromthehinterlandtotakeupnewjobsofferedbytheemergingmodernsector,whichnowemploysatleast20millionworkers1inforeign-ownedfirmsplusadditionalmillionsinChinesefirmsthatareeitherrelativelymodernorsuppliersofthemodernexport-orientedsector.Whilenominalwagesaresubstantiallyhigherinthemodernurbansector,realwagesarelesshighbecausepricesinthecoastalprovincesarealsomuchhigher.Chinahasbecomeaneconomynotonlyoflargeandincreasingincomedisparitiesbutalsoonewithpricelevelsandstructuresthattendtodiffergreatlyinregionalterms.

ChinaextremeexampleswhichareunlikelytobepartoftheconsumptionbasketofatypicalChineseworker:

aBigMachasapriceinChinaofUS$1.26（USA:

US$3.00;Europe:

US$3.75）.InShanghai,acoffeeatStarbucksonPeople’sSquareorascoopoficecreamatHäa-gen-DazsinthecentrecostsasmuchasinEurope,orabouttheaveragedailywageofaChinesemanufacturingworkerandhalfthedailywageofanemployeeinShanghai,wherewagesaremorethandoubletheChineseaverage.ThenewlyrichChineseuppermiddleclassandforeignerslivinginorvisitingChinashareconsumptionpatternsthatmakepossibleasupplyofhigh-qualitygoodsatcorrespondingl