Bill Gates1.docx

Bill Gates1.docx

《Bill Gates1.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《Bill Gates1.docx（7页珍藏版）》请在冰豆网上搜索。

BillGates1

AboutBillGates:

Apassionatetechieandashrewdbusinessman,BillGateschangedtheworldonce,whileleadingMicrosofttodizzyingsuccess.Heplanstodoitagainwithhisownstyleofphilanthropy（慈善事业）and…

Aboutthistalk:

AtTED2010,BillGatesunveilshisvisionfortheworld'senergyfuture,describingtheneedfor"miracles"toavoidplanetarycatastropheandexplainingwhyhe'sbackingadramaticallydifferenttypeofnuclearreactor.Thenecessarygoal?

Zerocarbonemissionsgloballyby2050.

Script:

I'mgoingtotalktodayaboutenergyandclimate.Andthatmightseemabitsurprisingbecausemyfull-timeworkatthefoundationismostlyaboutvaccinesandseeds,aboutthethingsthatweneedtoinventanddelivertohelpthepooresttwobillionlivebetterlives.Butenergyandclimateareextremelyimportanttothesepeople,infact,moreimportantthantoanyoneelseontheplanet.Theclimategettingworse,meansthatmanyyearstheircropswon'tgrow.Therewillbetoomuchrain,notenoughrain.Thingswillchangeinwaysthattheirfragileenvironmentsimplycan'tsupport.Andthatleadstostarvation.Itleadstouncertainty.Itleadstounrest.So,theclimatechangeswillbeterribleforthem.

Also,thepriceofenergyisveryimportanttothem.Infact,ifyoucouldpickjustonethingtolowerthepriceof,toreducepoverty,byfar,youwouldpickenergy.Now,thepriceofenergyhascomedownovertime.Really,advancedcivilizationisbasedonadvancesinenergy.Thecoalrevolutionfueledtheindustrialrevolution,and,eveninthe1900'swe'veseenaveryrapiddeclineinthepriceofelectricity,andthat'swhywehaverefrigerators,air-conditioning,wecanmakemodernmaterialsanddosomanythings.Andso,we'reinawonderfulsituationwithelectricityintherichworld.But,aswemakeitcheaper--andlet'sgoformakingittwiceascheap--weneedtomeetanewconstraint,andthatconstrainthastodowithCO2.

CO2iswarmingtheplanet,andtheequationonCO2isactuallyaverystraightforwardone.IfyousumuptheCO2thatgetsemitted,thatleadstoatemperatureincrease,andthattemperatureincreaseleadstosomeverynegativeeffects.Theeffectsontheweatherand,perhapsworse,theindirecteffects,inthatthenaturalecosystemscan'tadjusttotheserapidchanges,andsoyougetecosystemcollapses.

Now,theexactamountofhowyoumapfromacertainincreaseofCO2towhattemperaturewillbeandwherethepositivefeedbacksare,there'ssomeuncertaintythere,butnotverymuch.Andthere'scertainlyuncertaintyabouthowbadthoseeffectswillbe,buttheywillbeextremelybad.Iaskedthetopscientistsonthisseveraltimes,dowereallyhavetogetdowntonearzero?

Can'twejustcutitinhalforaquarter?

Andtheansweristhat,untilwegetneartozero,thetemperaturewillcontinuetorise.Andsothat'sabigchallenge.It'sverydifferentthansayingwe'rea12fthightrucktryingtogetundera10ftbridge,andwecanjustsortofsqueezeunder.Thisissomethingthathastogettozero.

Now,weputoutalotofcarbondioxideeveryyear,over26billiontons.ForeachAmerican,it'sabout20tons.Forpeopleinpoorcountries,it'slessthanoneton.It'sanaverageofaboutfivetonsforeveryoneontheplanet.And,somehow,wehavetomakechangesthatwillbringthatdowntozero.It'sbeenconstantlygoingup.It'sonlyvariouseconomicchangesthathaveevenflatteneditatall,sowehavetogofromrapidlyrisingtofalling,andfallingallthewaytozero.

Thisequationhasfourfactors.Alittlebitofmultiplication.So,you'vegotathingontheleft,CO2,thatyouwanttogettozero,andthat'sgoingtobebasedonthenumberofpeople,theserviceseachperson'susingonaverage,theenergyonaverageforeachservice,andtheCO2beingputoutperunitofenergy.So,let'slookateachoneoftheseandseehowwecangetthisdowntozero.Probably,oneofthesenumbersisgoingtohavetogetprettyneartozero.Nowthat'sbackfromhighschoolalgebra,butlet'stakealook.

Firstwe'vegotpopulation.Now,theworldtodayhas6.8billionpeople.That'sheadeduptoaboutninebillion.Now,ifwedoareallygreatjobonnewvaccines,healthcare,reproductivehealthservices,wecouldlowerthatby,perhaps,10or15percent,butthereweseeanincreaseofabout1.3.

Thesecondfactoristheservicesweuse.Thisencompasseseverything,thefoodweeat,clothing,TV,heating.Theseareverygoodthings,andgettingridofpovertymeansprovidingtheseservicestoalmosteveryoneontheplanet.Andit'sagreatthingforthisnumbertogoup.Intherichworld,perhapsthetoponebillion,weprobablycouldcutbackanduseless,buteveryyear,thisnumber,onaverage,isgoingtogoup,andso,overall,thatwillmorethandoubletheservicesdeliveredperperson.Herewehaveaverybasicservice.Doyouhavelightinginyourhousetobeabletoreadyourhomework,and,infact,thesekidsdon't,sothey'regoingoutandreadingtheirschoolworkunderthestreetlamps.

Now,efficiency,E,theenergyforeachservice,here,finallywehavesomegoodnews.Wehavesomethingthat'snotgoingup.Throughvariousinventionsandnewwaysofdoinglighting,throughdifferenttypesofcars,differentwaysofbuildingbuildings.therearealotofserviceswhereyoucanbringtheenergyforthatservicedownquitesubstantially,someindividualserviceseven,bringitdownby90percent.Thereareotherserviceslikehowwemakefertilizer,orhowwedoairtransport,wheretheroomsforimprovementarefar,farless.Andso,overallhere,ifwe'reoptimistic,wemaygetareductionofafactorofthreetoeven,perhaps,afactorofsix.Butforthesefirstthreefactorsnow,we'vegonefrom26billionto,atbest,maybe13billiontons,andthatjustwon'tcutit.

Solet'slookatthisfourthfactor--thisisgoingtobeakeyone--andthisistheamountofCO2putoutpereachunitofenergy.Andsothequestionis,canyouactuallygetthattozero?

Ifyouburncoal,no.Ifyouburnnaturalgas,no.Almosteverywaywemakeelectricitytoday,exceptfortheemergingrenewablesandnuclear,putsoutCO2.Andso,whatwe'regoingtohavetodoataglobalscale,iscreateanewsystem.Andso,weneedenergymiracles.

Now,whenIusethetermmiracle,Idon'tmeansomethingthat'simpossible.Themicroprocessorisamiracle.Thepersonalcomputerisamiracle.Theinternetanditsservicesareamiracle.So,thepeopleherehaveparticipatedinthecreationofmanymiracles.Usually,wedon'thaveadeadline,whereyouhavetogetthemiraclebyacertaindate.Usually,youjustkindofstandby,andsomecomealong,somedon't.Thisisacasewhereweactuallyhavetodrivefullspeedandgetamiracleinaprettytighttimeline.

Now,Ithought,howcouldIreallycapturethis?

Istheresomekindofnaturalillustration,somedemonstrationthatwouldgrabpeople'simaginationhere?

IthoughtbacktoayearagowhenIbroughtmosquitos,andsomehowpeopleenjoyedthat.（Laughter）Itreallygottheminvolvedintheideaof,youknow,therearepeoplewholivewithmosquitos.So,withenergy,allIcouldcomeupwithisthis.Idecidedthatreleasingfireflieswouldbemycontributiontotheenvironmentherethisyear.Soherewehavesomenaturalfireflies.I'mtoldtheydon'tbite,infact,theymightnotevenleavethatjar.（Laughter）

Now,there'sallsortsgimmickysolutionslikethatone,buttheydon'treallyadduptomuch.Weneedsolutions,eitheroneorseveral,thathaveunbelievablescaleandunbelievablereliability,and,althoughthere'smanydirectionspeopleareseeking,Ireallyonlyseefivethatcanachievethebignumbers.I'veleftouttide,geothermal,fusion,biofuels.Thosemaymakesomecontribution,andiftheycandobetterthanIexpect,somuchthebetter,butmykeypointhereisthatwe'regoingtohavetoworkoneachofthesefive,andwecan'tgiveupanyofthembecausetheylookdaunting,becausetheyallhavesignificantchallenges.

Let'slookfirstattheburningfossilfuels,eitherburningcoalorburningnaturalgas.Whatyouneedtodothere,seemslikeitmightbesimple,butit'snot,andthat'stotakealltheCO2,afteryou'veburnedit,goingouttheflue,pressurizeit,createaliquid,putitsomewhere,andhopeitstaysthere.Nowwehavesomepilotthingsthatdothisatthe60to80percentlevel,butgettinguptothatfullpercentage,thatwillbeverytricky,andagreeingonwheretheseCO2quantitiesshouldbeputwillbehard,butthetoughestonehereisthislongtermissue.Who'sgoingtobesure?

Who'sgoingtoguaranteesomethingthatisliterallybillionsoftimeslargerthananytypeofwasteyouthinkofintermsofnuclearorotherthings?

Thisisalotofvolume.Sothat'satoughone.

Next,wouldbenuclear.Italsohasthreebigproblems.Cost,particularlyinhighlyregulatedcountries,ishigh.Theissueofthesafety,reallyfeelinggoodaboutnothingcouldgowrong,that,eventhoughyouhavethesehumanoperators,thatthefueldoesn'tgetusedforweapons.Andthenwhatdoyoudowiththewaste?

And,althoughit'snotverylarge,therearealotofconcernsaboutthat.Peopleneedtofeelgoodaboutit.Sothreeverytoughproblemsthatmightbesolvable,andso,shouldbeworkedon.

Thelastthreeofthefive,I'vegroupedtogether.Thesearewhatpeopleoftenrefertoastherenewablesources.Andtheyactually--althoughit'sgreattheydon'trequirefuel--theyhavesomedisadvantages.Oneisthatthedensityofenergygatheredinthesetechnologiesisdramaticallylessthanapowerplant.Thisisenergyfarming,soyou'retalkingaboutmanysquaremiles,thousandsoftimemoreareatha