北美范文argument模版工具箱.docx

北美范文argument模版工具箱.docx

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北美范文argument模版工具箱

在准备argment的过程中，将北美范文中的攻击套路大概分了14类：

1）调查问题，2）错误因果，3）差异概念，4）过去推将来，5）错误类比6）整体规律用于个体，7）单个事

例说明整体，8）没有考虑其他影响因素，9）盈利问题，10）非充要条件，11）非此即彼，12）比例与总量混淆，13）对比实验问题，14）其他。

并且将各类问题的段落进行了

归纳和整理，下面就与大家共同分享这部分工作，希望能够对10G的兄弟姐妹有所帮助。

（段落前面的序号是段落所在题目的通用题号）

一.调查问题

11.Themayorprovidesnoevidencethatthesurvey’srespondentsarerepresentativeoftheoverallgroupofpeoplewhose...[被调查者的代表性]

Lackingsuchevidence,itisentirelypossiblethatpeopleinclinedto...weremorewillingtorespondtothesurveythanotherpeoplewere.

Inshort,withoutbetterevidencethatthesurveyisstatisticallyreliable[调查的统计是可靠的]themayorcannotrelyonittodrawanyfirmconclusionsabout....

28.Thenumberofparticipants,100,mightconstituteaninsufficientlysmallsampletodrawanyreliableconclusionsabout...

Also,thesamplemightbeunrepresentativeofdistrictstudnetsasagroup.

142.Theauthorprovidesnoevidencethatthestudy’sresultsarestatisticallyreliable.

Inordertoestablishastrongcorrelationbetweendietaryironandheartdiseases,thestudy’ssamplemustbesufficientinsize[样本大小]andrepresentativeoftheoverallpopulationof[样本代表性]heart-diseasevictims.

Lackingevidenceofasufficientlyrepresentativesample,theauthorcannotjustifiablyrelyonthestudytodrawanyconclusionwhatsoever.

144.Theauthor’sconclusionsabout...dependontheassumptionthatthepollresultsarestatisticallyreliable.

Yet,theauthoroffersnoevidencetosubstantiatethisassumption.

Theauthormustshowthat...polledconstituteasufficientlylargesampleof...[样本大小],andthissampleisrepresentativeofallsuch....[代表性]

Otherwise,theauthorcannotconfidentlydrawanygeneralconclusionsabout...

158.TheCouncilhasnotconvincedmethat...inthesurveyarerepresentativeof...—intermsof...

Itisentirelypossiblethat...

The300peopleinthestudyarenotnecessarilyrepresentativeofthestate’sgeneralpopulation—intermsof...

Forexample,perhaps...Orperhaps...

Inshort,lackingevidencethat...theCouncilcannotconvincemethat...

174.Thememoprovidesnoevidencethattheresultsofeitherofthetwosurveysarestatisticallyreliable.

Besides,thememoprovidesnoinformationaboutwhatpercentageof...respondedtothesurveys[参加调查的人数比例，也是样本大小];thelowerthepercentages,thelessreliabletheresultsofthesurveys.

181.

Afinalproblemwiththeargumentinvolvesthetwostudiesthemselves.Theletterprovidesnoinformationabouthoweitherstudywasconducted[调查是如何进行

的].

Withoutkonwingwhetherthesampleof...wasrepresentativeof[代表性]theoverall...population...,itisimpossibletoconfidentlyapplythestudies’

resultstothatpopulation.

Moreover,wearenotinformedaboutthesizeofthesample[样本大小]ineitherstudy;thesmallerthesample,thelessreliablethestudy’sconclusion.

186.

Athresholdproblemwiththeargumentinvolvesthestatisticalreliabilityofthesurvey.

Thedirectorprovidesnoevidencethatthenumberofrespondentsisstatisticallysignificant[样本大小]orthattherespondentswererepresentativeof...in

general[代表性].

Lackinginformationabouttherandomnessandsizeofthesurvey’ssample,thedirectorcannotmakeaconvincingargumentbasedonthatsurvey.

Evenifthesurvey’srespondentsarerepresentativeoftheentirepopulationof...,theargumentreliesontheassumptionthattheresponsesthemselves

arereliable[被调查者的可信性].

Yetthedirectorignoresthepossiblilitythat...

Lackingevidencethattherespondents’reportswerebothtruthfulandmeaningful,thedirectorcannotconfidentlydrawanyconclusionsabout...fromthem.

188.

Oneproblemwiththeargumentisthatsincethestudyinvolvedonly48peopleitisimpossibletoconfidentlydrawanyconclusionsaboutthegeneral

populationfromit.

201.

ThesurveymustbeshowntobereliablebeforeIcanacceptanyconclusionsbaseduponit.

Specifically,theresponsesmustbeaccurate,andtherespondentsmustbestatisticallysignificantinnumberandrepresentativeoftheoverall[样本大小和代

表性]...intermsof...

Withoutevidenceofthesurvey’sreliablity,itisimpossibletodrawanyfirmconclucionsabout...basedonthesurvey.

220.

Thearticle’sauthorhasnotshownthestudyuponwhichtheargumentdenpendstobestatisticallyreliable.

Thepeoplestudiedmustberepresentativeoftheoverallpopulationofpeoplewho...;otherwisetheauthorcannotdrawanyfirmconclusionsabout...based

onthestudy’sresults.

221.

Thesurveythattheargumentcitesispotentiallyproblematicinthreerespects.

First,wearenotinformedwhetherthesurvey’srespondentswererepresentativeoftheoverallpopulationof.Thesmallerthesample,thegreaterthe

possiblityforbiasedresults,andthelessreliablethesurvey.

Second,...;yetitisentirelypossiblethat...

Third,wearenotinformedthat...;however,if...,thenthesurveyresultswouldbelessreliablethanifthesurveyembracedawiderrangeof...

Thesmallertherangethelessreliableanygeneralconclusionsdrawnfromthesurvey.

二.错误因果

3.

The15%declinethattheauthorcitesisnotnecessarilyduetothevocationalpreferencesofnewlaw-schoolgraduates.Itisentirelypossiblethatthe

numberofnewgraduatespreferringtoworkforlargefirmshasnotdeclined,butthatduringthelastthreeyearsMegalopolis’largefirmshavehadfewer

jobopeningsforthesegraduates.Sincethearticlefailstoaccountforthisalternativeexplanationforthe15%decline,thearticle’sauthorcannotmake

anysoundrecommendationstolawfirmsbasedonthatdecline.

19.

AssumingthattheMegalopolissuccesswasinfactduetoDR’spopularitythere,themanageroverlooksthepossibilitythatAdLib’scampaignhadnothingto

dowiththatpopularity.PerhapsthebandrecentlybecameoverwhelminglypopularduetoanewhitsongorarevivalofthetypeofmusicDRplays.

Eitherscenario,ifture,wouldservetounderminethemanager’sclaimthatAdLib’seffortsaretobecreditedfortheMegalopolissuccess.

26.

ThechairpersonunfairlyassumesthatthethreebandawardswereattributabletoSchade’sabilitiesandefforts.Lackingevidencetoconfirmthis

assumption,itisentirelypossiblethatSchadewasnottheschool’sbandinstructorwhenthebandwontheseawards.Or,perhapsthebandwonallthree

awardsearlyinSchade’stenure,andhispredecessoristobecredited.Forthatmatter,perhapsitwastheimprovedqualityoftheband’smusical

instrumentsthatshouldbecreditedfortheawards.Afterall,thechairpersonprovidesnoevidencethatSchadewasactuallyresponsibleforthisimprovement.

WithoutconsideringandrulingoutotherpossiblereasonswhythebandwontheawardsthechairpersoncannotconvincemeofSchade’sabilitiesor,inturn,

thatheshouldbeappointedtothedistrictjob.

142.

Evenassumingthatthestudyisstatisticallyreliable,adirectcorrelationbetweenahigh-irondietandheartdiseasedoesnotnecessarilyprovethatthe

formercausesthelatter.Whileahighcorrelationisastrongevidenceofacausalrelationship,initselfitisnotsufficient.Theauthormustalso

accountforallotherpossiblefactorsleadingtoheartdisease,suchasgeneticpropensity,amountofexercise,andsoforth.Lackingevidencethatthe

heart-diseasesuffererswhomthestudyobservedweresimilarinallsuchrespects,theauthorcannotjustifiablyconcludethatahigh-irondietisthe

primarycause,orevenacontributingcause,ofheartdisease.

Similarly,acorrelationbetweenadietthatincludeslargeamountsofredmeatandheartdiseasedoesnotnecessarilyinferacausalrelationship.Itis

possiblethatred-meateatersarecomparativelylikelytoincurheartdiseaseduetofactorsthathavenothingtodowiththeamountofredmeatintheir

diet.Perhapsred-meateatersarethesamepeoplewhogenerallyovereat,anditisobesityrathertheconsumptionofredmeatspecificallycausesheart

attacks.Theauthormustconsiderandeliminatethisandotherpossiblereasonswhyred-meateatersaremorelikelythanotherpeopletosufferfromheart

disease.Otherwise,Icannotaccepttheauthor’simplicitclaimthateatingredmeatsisanymorelikelytocauseheartdiseasethaneatingotherfood.

156.

TheadreliesontheunsubstantiatedassumptionthattheMegaemployeesattendingtheseminararepositionedtoinfluenceMega’ssalesanditscustomer

relations.Perhapsthesenewemployeeswerehiredforproduction,editorial,personnelpositionsthathavenothingtodowithcustomerrelationsandthat

haveonlyanindirectandnegligibleimpactonsales.WithoutprovidingevidencethatthesenewemployeesdirectlyinfluenceMega’scustomerrelationsand

sales,IcannotaccepttheargumentthattheDickensseminarwasresponsibleforanyofMega’ssalesorcustomer-relationsimprovementssubsequenttothe

seminar.

173.

Thefactthatthemagazine’spoorest-sellingissuesweretheoneswithinternationalcoverstoriesmightbeexplainedbyavarietyoffactors.Perhaps

internationaleventsthemselveswerenotasinterestingduringthoseperiods.Ifso,itmightbeamistaketorefrainfromemphasizinginternationalevents

whenthoseeventsareinterestingenoughtostimulatesales.Orperhapsthenewsmagazineisseasonal,orcyclical,andthoseparticularissueswouldhave

soldmorepoorlyregardlessofthecoverstory.Inshort,withoutrulingoutotherpossibleexplanationsfortherelativelypoorsalesofthoseparticular

issuesthepublishercannotjustifiablyconcludethatinternationalcoverstorieswerethecauseoftherelativelypoorsales.

220.

Evenifthestatisticscitedaccuratelyreflecttheamountoftelevisionpeoplewatchcomparedtothenumberoffiction,itwouldbehastytoinferbased

merelyonthisfactthatthetelevisionindustryismoreprofitablethanthe