万科的投资学分析报告.docx

万科的投资学分析报告.docx

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万科的投资学分析报告

Theinvestmentanalysisof

VankeCorporation

TheinvestmentanalysisofVankeCorporation

VankeCorporationLtd.wasestablishedinMay1984,isthelargestprofessionalresidentialdevelopmentcompany,It’sHeadquarteredwasfoundedinShenzhenandhassetupbranchofficesin20cities.It'scorporationshareswaslistedinMay1993,andthecompany'stotalsharecapitalismorethan1.02millionshares.Ouranalysishasbeendividedintosixparts:

Macroeconomicanalysis,industrialanalysis,financialstatementanalysis,equityvaluationanalysisandtechniqueanalysisandconclusionandreference.

PartoneMacroeconomicanalysis

MacroeconomicandIndustryAnalysis

1.TheGlobalEconomy

Theglobaleconomyisstillinthestageofrecoveryfromtheworldeconomiccrisis.

Theeconomicsentimentindicators（suchasGDPgrowthrate）oftheworld'smajoreconomicscontinuetoimprove,aswellastherecoveringinternationaltradeandinvestment.However,theproblemsbroughtbythefinancialcrisisin2008stillexistinsomedevelopedcountriesandhaveapossibilitytooutbreak,thusdamagingtheglobalrecoveringeconomy.Theunemploymentrateremainshighintheworld'smajoreconomies,particularlyindevelopedeconomies,whichwillbringarangeofsocialandpoliticalproblemsandleadtheeconomicrecoveryintheworldtouncertainty.

2．DomesticMacroeconomic

TheConsumerPriceIndex（CPI）hasbeenbeyondthemarketexpectationsformonthssinceOctober,2010andthereisinflationarypressureinChina'seconomicdevelopment（assuggestedbythefigurebelow）.

•

•On14thJanuary,China'sCentralBankannouncedtoraisethedepositreserveratiooffinancialinstitutionsby0.5percentagefrom20thJanuary,2011.Thedepositreserveratiooflargefinancialinstitutionswillreachanewrecordof19%aftertheadjustmentwhilethereserveratioofsmallandmediumsizedfinancialinstitutionswillreach15.5%,withtheblockedfundamountingtoapproximately350billion.

•CentralBankstatisticsreleasedin2010financialreport.ThefinancialreportreleasedbytheCentralBankshowsthatbytheendof2010thegrowthrateofmoneysupplycontinuestorebound,withthebroadmoneybalancereaching¥72.58trillion（showedanincreaseof19.7%）andnarrowmoneybalancereaching¥26.66trillion（21.2%increase）;theannualnetcashreached¥6281billionwithanincreaseof¥235.4billion;foreignexchangereservesshowedabalanceof$2.8473trillionwithanincreaseof18.7%.

Intermsofthecommoditymarkets,theoverallcapitaladequacywillcontinuetoprovidesupportforthepricesofbulkcommodities;whileintheviewoftheindex,togetherwiththechangingpolicies,China'sstockmarketwillexperienceamoresubstantialfluctuationintheyear2011duetothesensitivenessofChina'sstockmarket.

Parttwoindustrialanalysis

1.China'shugeurbanhousingdevelopmentspace

Withtheglobaltrendsofurbanization,developingcountrieswillseetheacceleratedurbanizationinthe21stCentury.AccordingtothestatisticsreleasedbytheConstructionDepartment,China'surbanhousingareapercapitawas14.87squaremetersbytheendof2000,whichliesinthesamelevelwiththeworld'smiddle-incomecountries.

2.Solidfoundationofrealestateindustry

Realestateindustryisinnaturepolicy-orientedandcloselyrelatedtothemacro-economy.In1998,thegovernmentproposedtoboomingthedomesticeconomybyboomingtheresidentialindustryandannouncedsupportivepolicies（lowertheloaninterestrate,forexample）,thussuccessfullyincreasingconsumerdemandandimprovingtherealestateindustry.DatafromtheNationalBureauofStatisticsshowthatthetotalinvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentreached624.5billionin2001,representingadoubleincreasecomparedwiththefigurein1997andtheamountofnationalcommercialhousingsoldreached382.5billionwithanincreaseof29%.

Meanwhile,theboomingmortgageloanbusinessgreatlyimprovedtheresidents'abilityofpaymentofownhousesandprovidesolidsupportforthehealthydevelopmentoftherealestateindustry.Datafromthenationalbanksuggestedthatattheendof2001,thenationalindividualhousingloanshasreached506.8billion.

Basedonthegovernmentpolicyofexpensingdomesticdemand,therealestateindustrywillcontinuetoimproveinthenext3to5years.

3.Standardizedmarketsandconcentratedindustry

Withthemarketizationoflandtransactions,duetotheimprovedirregularitiesinlandsupplyanddisorderlycompetitionandtheconstraintonpremiumpaymentincreasetheaccessthresholdfortherealestateindustry,theprofitabilityoftherealestateindustryasawholetendtobereasonable.Thenextfewyearswillseethesurvivaloffittestdomesticrealestateenterprisesandchangestomarketizationandconcentrationoftheindustry.Th