万科的投资学分析报告.docx

1、万科的投资学分析报告The investment analysis of Vanke Corporation The investment analysis of Vanke CorporationVanke Corporation Ltd. was established in May 1984, is the largest professional residential development company, Its Headquartered was founded in Shenzhen and has set up branch offices in 20 cities. It

2、s corporation shares was listed in May 1993,and the companys total share capital is more than1.02 million shares. Our analysis has been divided into six parts : Macroeconomic analysis, industrial analysis, financial statement analysis, equity valuation analysis and technique analysis and conclusion

3、and reference.Part one Macroeconomic analysisMacroeconomic and Industry Analysis1. The Global EconomyThe global economy is still in the stage of recovery from the world economic crisis. The economic sentiment indicators (such as GDP growth rate) of the worlds major economics continue to improve, as

4、well as the recovering international trade and investment. However, the problems brought by the financial crisis in 2008 still exist in some developed countries and have a possibility to outbreak, thus damaging the global recovering economy. The unemployment rate remains high in the worlds major eco

5、nomies, particularly in developed economies, which will bring a range of social and political problems and lead the economic recovery in the world to uncertainty.2Domestic MacroeconomicThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been beyond the market expectations for months since October, 2010 and there is

6、inflationary pressure in Chinas economic development (as suggested by the figure below). On 14th January, Chinas Central Bank announced to raise the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage from 20th January, 2011. The deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions wi

7、ll reach a new record of 19% after the adjustment while the reserve ratio of small and medium sized financial institutions will reach 15.5%, with the blocked fund amounting to approximately 350 billion. Central Bank statistics released in 2010 financial report. The financial report released by the C

8、entral Bank shows that by the end of 2010 the growth rate of money supply continues to rebound, with the broad money balance reaching 72.58 trillion (showed an increase of 19.7%) and narrow money balance reaching 26.66 trillion (21.2% increase); the annual net cash reached 6281 billion with an incre

9、ase of 235.4 billion; foreign exchange reserves showed a balance of $2.8473 trillion with an increase of 18.7%.In terms of the commodity markets, the overall capital adequacy will continue to provide support for the prices of bulk commodities; while in the view of the index, together with the changi

10、ng policies, Chinas stock market will experience a more substantial fluctuation in the year 2011 due to the sensitiveness of Chinas stock market.Part two industrial analysis1. Chinas huge urban housing development spaceWith the global trends of urbanization, developing countries will see the acceler

11、ated urbanization in the 21st Century. According to the statistics released by the Construction Department, Chinas urban housing area per capita was 14.87 square meters by the end of 2000, which lies in the same level with the worlds middle-income countries. 2. Solid foundation of real estate indust

12、ryReal estate industry is in nature policy-oriented and closely related to the macro-economy. In 1998, the government proposed to booming the domestic economy by booming the residential industry and announced supportive policies (lower the loan interest rate, for example), thus successfully increasi

13、ng consumer demand and improving the real estate industry. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the total investment in real estate development reached 624.5 billion in 2001, representing a double increase compared with the figure in 1997 and the amount of national commercial housin

14、g sold reached 382.5 billion with an increase of 29%.Meanwhile, the booming mortgage loan business greatly improved the residents ability of payment of own houses and provide solid support for the healthy development of the real estate industry. Data from the national bank suggested that at the end

15、of 2001, the national individual housing loans has reached 506.8 billion.Based on the government policy of expensing domestic demand, the real estate industry will continue to improve in the next 3 to 5 years.3. Standardized markets and concentrated industryWith the marketization of land transaction

16、s, due to the improved irregularities in land supply and disorderly competition and the constraint on premium payment increase the access threshold for the real estate industry, the profitability of the real estate industry as a whole tend to be reasonable. The next few years will see the survival of fittest domestic real estate enterprises and changes to marketization and concentration of the industry. Th