证据的分析 Analysis of Evidence.pdf

证据的分析 Analysis of Evidence.pdf

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ThispageintentionallyleftblankAnalysisofEvidenceThisisanenjoyableandrigorousintroductiontotheconstructionandcriticismofargumentsaboutquestionsoffact,andtothemarshallingandevaluationofevidenceatallstagesoflitigation.Itcoverstheprinciplesunderlyingthelogicofproof;theusesanddangersofstory-telling;standardsfordecisionandtherela-tionshipbetweenprobabilitiesandproof;thechartmethodandothermethodsofanalyzingandorderingevidenceinfact-investigation,inpreparingfortrial,andinconnectionwithotherimportantdecisionsinlegalprocessesandincriminalinves-tigationandintelligenceanalysis.Mostofthechaptersinthisneweditionhavebeenrewritten;thetreatmentoffactinvestigation,probabilitiesandnarrativehasbeenextended;andnewexamplesandexerciseshavebeenadded.Designedasaflexibletoolforundergraduateandpostgraduatecoursesonevidenceandproof,students,practitionersandteachersalikewillfindthisbookchallengingbutrewarding.TerenceAndersonisProfessorofLawattheUniversityofMiami.Heisanexperiencedlitigatorandteacherofcoursesonmethodsofanalysis,evidenceandtrialpractice.Hiswritingsincludearticlesdevelopingandillustratingtopicscoveredinthisbook.DavidSchumisProfessorofLawandofSystemsEngineeringatGeorgeMasonUniversityandHonoraryProfessorofEvidenceScience,UniversityCollegeLondon.WilliamTwiningisQuainProfessorofJurisprudenceEmeritus,UniversityCollegeLondon,andaregularVisitingProfessorattheUniversityofMiamiSchoolofLaw.HiswritingsonevidenceincludeRethinkingEvidence（2ndedn.,CambridgeUniversityPress）.LawinContextTheseriesisavehicleforthepublicationofinnovativescholarlybooksthattreatlawandlegalphenomenacriticallyintheirsocial,politicalandeconomiccontextsfromavarietyofperspectives.Theseriesparticularlyaimstopublishscholarlylegalwritingsthatbringfreshperspectivestobearonnewandexistingareasoflawtaughtinuniversities.Acontextualapproachinvolvestreatinglegalsubjectsbroadly,usingmaterialsfromothersocialsciences,andfromanyotherdisciplinethathelpstoexplaintheoperationinpracticeofthesubjectunderdiscussion.Itishopedthatthisorientationisatoncemorestimulatingandmorerealisticthanthebareexpositionoflegalrules.Theseriesincludesoriginalbooksthathaveadifferentemphasisfromtraditionallegaltextbooks,whilemaintainingthesamehighstandardsofscholarship.Theyarewrittenprimarilyforstudentsoflawandofotherdisciplines,butmostalsoappealtoawiderreadership.Recentpublicationsincludebooksonglobalization,transnationallegalprocesses,andcomparativelaw.Inthepast,mostauthorshavecomefrom,orbeenbasedin,EuropeortheCommonwealth.Inthefuture,wealsoexpecttopublishauthorsfrom,orbasedin,theUnitedStatesorCanada,particularlythosewhoadoptacleartransatlanticperspective.Thebookswillincludesubjectareasthathaveatransnationalsignificance,drawingonEuropeanaswellasNorthAmericanscholarship.SeriesEditorsWilliamTwining,UniversityCollegeLondonChristopherJ.McCrudden,UniversityofOxfordBooksintheseriesAnderson,Schum&Twining:

AnalysisofEvidenceAshworth:

SentencingandCriminalJusticeBarton&Douglas:

LawandParenthoodBell:

FrenchLegalCulturesBercusson:

EuropeanLabourLawBirkinshaw:

EuropeanPublicLawBirkinshaw:

FreedomofInformation:

TheLaw,thePracticeandtheIdealCane:

AtiyahsAccidents,CompensationandtheLawClarke&Kohler:

PropertyLaw:

CommentaryandMaterialsCollins:

TheLawofContractDavies:

PerspectivesonLabourLawdeSousaSantos:

TowardaNewLegalCommonSenseDiduck:

LawsFamiliesElworthy&Holder:

EnvironmentalProtection:

TextandMaterialsFortin:

ChildrensRightsandtheDevelopingLawGlover-Thomas:

ReconstructingMentalHealthLawandPolicyGobert&Punch:

RethinkingCorporateCrimeHarlow&Rawlings:

LawandAdministration:

TextandMaterialsHarris:

AnIntroductiontoLawHarris:

RemediesinContractandTortHarvey:

SeekingAsylumintheUK:

ProblemsandProspectsHervey&McHale:

HealthLawandtheEuropeanUnionLacey&Wells:

ReconstructingCriminalLawLewis:

ChoiceandtheLegalOrder:

RisingabovePoliticsLikosky:

TransnationalLegalProcessesMaughan&Webb:

LawyeringSkillsandtheLegalProcessMoffat:

TrustsLaw:

TextandMaterialsNorrie:

Crime,ReasonandHistoryODair:

LegalEthicsOliver:

CommonValuesandthePublic-PrivateDivideOliver&Drewry:

TheLawandParliamentPicciotto:

InternationalBusinessTaxationReed:

InternetLaw:

TextandMaterialsRichardson:

Law,ProcessandCustodyRoberts&Palmer:

DisputeProcesses-ADRandthePrimaryFormsofDecisionMakingScott&Black:

CranstonsConsumersandtheLawSeneviratne:

Ombudsmen:

PublicServicesandAdministrativeJusticeStapleton:

ProductLiabilityTurpin:

BritishGovernmentandtheConstitution:

Text,CasesandMaterialsTwining:

GlobalisationandLegalTheoryTwining&Miers:

HowtodoThingswithRulesWard:

ACriticalIntroductiontoEuropeanLawWard:

ShakespeareandLegalImaginationZander:

CasesandMaterialsontheEnglishLegalSystemZander:

TheLaw-MakingProcessAnalysisofEvidenceSecondeditionTerenceAndersonProfessorofLaw,UniversityofMiamiDavidSchumProfessorofSystemsEngineeringandLaw,GeorgeMasonUniversityWilliamTwiningQuainProfessorofJurisprudenceEmeritus,UniversityCollegeLondonwithonlineappendicesatwww.cambridge.org/9780521673167byPhilipDawid,UniversityCollegeLondoncambridgeuniversitypressCambridge,NewYork,Melbourne,Madrid,CapeTown,Singapore,SoPauloCambridgeUniversityPressTheEdinburghBuilding,Cambridgecb22ru,UKFirstpublishedinprintformatisbn-13978-0-521-67316-7isbn-13978-0-511-12725-0TerenceAnderson,DavidSchumandWilliamTwining20052005Informationonthistitle:

www.cambridge.org/9780521673167Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexceptionandtotheprovisionofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements,noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewrittenpermissionofCambridgeUniversityPress.isbn-100-511-12725-1isbn-100-521-67316-xCambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracyofurlsforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredtointhispublication,anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuchwebsitesis,orwillremain,accurateorappropriate.PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyCambridgeUniversityPress,NewYorkwww.cambridge.orgpaperbackeBook（EBL）eBook（EBL）paperbackToourchildrenandgrandchildrenToAnne,Carolyn,andPenelopeContents:

summaryPrefacexviiAcknowledgmentsxxvTablesofcasesandstatutesxxviiListofabbreviationsxxxii1Evidenceandinference:

somefoodforthought12Factinvestigationandthenatureofevidence463Principlesofproof784Methodsofanalysis1125Thechartmethod1236Outlines,chronologies,andnarrative1457Analyzingthedecidedcase:

anatomyofacausecelebre1598Evaluatingevidence2249Probabilities,weight,andprobativeforce24610Necessarybutdangerous:

generalizationsandstoriesinargumentationaboutfacts26211Theprinciplesofproofandthelawofevidence28912Thetriallawyersstandpoint315Glossaryoftermsandsymbols379References388Index396ixContentsPrefacexviiAcknowledgmentsxxvTablesofcasesandstatutesxxviiListofabbreviationsxxxii1Evidenceandinference:

somefoodforthought1A.Introduction1B.Evidenceandinferenceinnon-legalcontexts21.WhosebabyI?

ThejudgmentofSolomon22.Theintelligenceanalyst:

anintelligencescenario“fromthetop-down”33.Thedoctorandthedetective:

JosephBellandSherlockHolmes8a.Thedoctor8b.Thedetective94.Generalizationsandstories:

Samsparty10C.Evidenceandinferenceinlegalcontexts101.Twomurders10a.ThemurderofY10b.BywatersandThompson102.Imaginativereasoning:

TheNineMileWalk113.Generalizations,stories,andarguments18a.Bridesinthebath:

closingspeech18b.Huddlestonv.UnitedStates19c.Millerv.Jackson204.Evidencefromtwocausescelebres21a.Commonwealthv.SaccoandVanzetti21b.Peoplev.Simpson235.UnitedStatesv.RichardAble236.Sargentv.SouthernAccidentCo.287.WhosebabyII?

Morrisonv.Jenkins318.Aninvestigation:

basicconceptsinanalysisandevaluation40xixiiContents2Factinvestigationandthenatureofevidence46A.Introduction:

connectingthedots46Post9/11investigation:

anexercise52B.Factinvestigation:

generatingdotsandexplanationsforthem551.Typesoflogicalreasoningandjustification552.Abductivereasoningandthegenerationofanewidea563.Generatingexplanationsfordotsortrifles58C.Onthecredentialsofevidence601.Evidentialfoundationsofargument602.Onrelevance623.Thecredibilityofevidenceanditssources63a.Tangibleevidence64b.Thecredibilityoftestimonialevidence65c.Ancillaryevidenceabouttestimonialcredibilityattributes67d.Credibilitypetence704.Ontheprobativeforceofevidence71D.Asubstance-blindapproachtoevidence713Principlesofproof78A.Introduction:

evidenceinlegalcontexts78B.TheRationalistTradition781.Thetraditiondescribed792.Principlesofproof,rulesofprocedureandevidence,andtheRationalistTradition81C.Rationale87Notesandquestionsonrulesofevidenceconcerningrelevance88D.Notesonterminologyandinferentialrelationships90Apreliminaryexercise:

Statev.Archer（I）94E.Probativeprocessesandlogicalprinciples961.Probativeprocesses962.Thelogicalprinciples983.Applicationoftheprinciplesinlegaldisputes103Theexercisecontinues:

Statev.Archer（II）109TheProsecutorsstandpoint1094Methodsofanalysis112A.Introduction112B.Themethodsandaprotocolfortheiruse113Contentsxiii1.Methodsofanalysisandanalyticdevices1132.Aseven-stepprotocolforanalysis:

ageneralizedaccount1145Thechartmethod123A.Thechartmethod:

anoverview123B.Theseven-stepprotocolforthechartmethod:

adetailedaccount124C.Thesymbolsandtheiruse1341.ThebasicWigmoreanpalette1342.Thechartmethodillustrated1363.Additionalsymbols,conventionsandtheirutility1404.Threeadvantagesofsymbolsandcharting141Theexercisecontinues:

Statev.Archer（III）1431.Defensecounselsstandpoin