中澳农产品英文稿.docx

中澳农产品英文稿.docx

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中澳农产品英文稿

Theanalysisofintra-industrytradeonagriculturalproductsbetweenChinaandAustralia

Abstract:

ByusingHSclassification,theauthorhasdividedtotalagriculturalproductsinto24categories.ThepapercalculatedtheG-Lintra-industrytradeindex,Brülhartmarginalintra-industrytradeindex,andThom&McDowellmarginalindustrytradeindexforeachtypeofagriculturalproductsduringtheperiodfrom1996to2009oftheSino-Australiatradeonagriculturalproducts.Theconclusionshowsthattheoveralllevelofagriculturalintra-industrytradebetweenChinaandAustraliaisrelativelylow,andBrülhartindexindicatesChina’sagriculturalproductsofimprovementmainlyfrominter-industrytrade,atthesametimeThom&McDowellindexshowsthatChina’sagriculturalintra-industrytradegrowthismainlyfromthegrowthofverticalintra-industrytrade.

Keywords：

intra-industrytrade；G-Lindex；marginalintra-industrytradeindex；

一、Introduction

SinceDecember1972,withChinaandAustraliaformallyestablisheddiplomaticrelations,TradebetweenAustraliaandChinahasbeenfastexpanding,especiallyinrecentyears.By2008,thestatisticsoftheDepartmentofForeignAffairsandTrade（DFAT）inAustraliarevealedthatChinahasbecomeAustralia'ssecondlargesttradepartner,Australia'ssecondlargestexportingcountriesandthefirstbigimportsource.ChinahasbecomeAustralia'ssecond-largesttradingpartnersingoods.ThebilateralCargovolumeamountsto15.1%ofAustralia'stotaltradegoods.Althoughthetradevolumefluctuatedduringtheperiod,butthewholetrendisuprising.Since1996theannualaveragegrowthrateofthebilateraltradevolumeonagriculturalis9.97%.Till2009,thetotalbilateraltradevolumehadamountedto1.537billiondollars,inwhichchinaimported984milliondollarsfromAustraliaandexported553milliondollarstoAustralia.WiththerapiddevelopmentofChina'seconomy,peoplewillhavemorematerialrequirements,especiallyonallkindsofagriculturalproducts.Intheforeseeablefuture,theAustralia-chinafarmtradewillstillhavevastdevelopmentspace.

Since1960s,alargenumberofscholarshavedoingresearchontheoryaboutthenewinternationaltrade，Linder.S.B.（1961）、Posner.M.A.（1959）、Vernon.B.（1966）、Kissing.D.B.（1968）putforwardthetheoryofDemandPreferenceSimilarity、Technologygaptheory、productcycletheory.Thenewtradetheorylayssolidfoundationforempiricalresearchofintra-industrytrade.Grubel（1970）foundthateventwocountrieshavesimilarpercapitaincome,onlydifferentincomedistributionwillresultinindustrytradebetweenthetwocountry.Lancaster.K.（1980）indicatedthatthehigherthedegreeofdifference,thelowertransactioncosts,andthehigherlevelofintra-industrytradewouldbeinindustry.ShakedandSutton（1984）、FalveyandKierzkowski（1987）、Fukao（2003）respectivelyexplainedtheintra-industrytradefromdifferentpointsofviewsuchasqualitydifference、R&Dspending、Internationaldirectinvestment.PreviousstudiesofbilateraltradebetweenAustraliaandChinahavelookedattradebetweenthecountriesfromdifferentangles.Forexample,Zhouetal.（2005）examinedAustralia-Chinaagriculturaltradebycalculatingthetradeintensityindex（TII）,therevealedcomparativeadvantageindex（RCA）andthetradecomplementaryindexTCI）andfoundthatthereisgreatpotentialforexpandedbilateralagriculturaltradeduetothetwocountries'individualcomparativeadvantages.ThisresultsuggeststhatanimportantfactorstrengtheningAustralia-ChinabilateraltradeisChina'sexportoflabor-intensivegoodsandgeneralmachinerytotheworld,whichgeneratesdemandforimportsfromAustralia.Zhang-YueZhou，Yan-RuiWu，WeiSi.（2006）foundthatAlargeportionofagriculturaltradebetweenAustraliaandChinaisinter-industrytrade.Intra-industryagriculturaltradebetweenthetwocountriesisnotextensive.AustraliaandChinaaretradinggreaterthanexpectedandthetradeis“intensifying”inrecentyears.Thisstudyclearlysuggeststhattherearefewareaswherethereisanoverlapinthetwocountries’comparativeadvantageandthusthetwocountriesdonotcompetewitheachotherinagriculturaltradeandindeed,thetradeisverycomplementary.YuSheng,LigangSong（2008）measuredthecomparativeadvantageindexandtheresultsuggeststhatanimportantfactorstrengtheningAustralia-ChinabilateraltradeisChina'sexportoflabor-intensivegoodsandgeneralmachinerytotheworld,whichgeneratesdemandforimportsfromAustraliaandthebilateraltradehasbeendrivenmainlybytherespectivedemandforeachother'sgoods，whichpromotesthewelfareofbothcountriesintermsofgeneratingmorevalue-addedfromexportsandbythismeasureAustraliaseemstogainmorefrombilateraltrade.YinHua、XiaoFang（2007）bycalculatingrevealedcomparativeadvantageindices（RCA）andtradeintensityindextoanalyzetheAustralia-chinatradeonagriculturalproductsandthecompetitivenessoftheagriculturalproducts.TheresultshowsthatAustraliahascomparativeadvantageofland-intensiveagriculturalproductsandChinahascomparativeadvantagesoflabor-intensiveagriculturalproducts.Huangzhaoying（2007）bycalculatingtheintra-industrytradeindex，foundinter-industrytradeisthemainformofagriculturaltradebetweentheChinaandAustraliaandmorethanhalfoftheagriculturalproductstradethroughinter-industrytrade.Traditionalinter-industrytradeisthefundamentalcharacteristicsofagriculturaltradebetweenthetwocountries,andalsoreflectstheactorendowmentsofthetwocountries.WangChunYu（2008）bycalculatingrevealedcomparativeadvantageindices（RCA）showsthatthereisgreatdifferenceforthecomparativeadvantagesofagriculturalproductsbetweenChinaandAustraliaandtheagriculturalproductstradebetweenthetwocountriesismorecomplementarythancompetitive.SunMeng（2009）bycalculatingAquinoindexandusingtheGHMmethodtosubdivideintra-industrytradeintohorizontalintra-industrytradeandverticalintra-industrytradefoundthattheoveralllevelislowforprimaryproductsbetweenChinaandAustraliabutAquinoindexrisingandtheintra-industrytradebetweenthetwocountrieshasvastdevelopmentspace.

SuchstudieshelpustounderstandthedevelopmentofAustralia-Chinabilateraltradeanditsdeterminants.However,thereareareaswherefurtherstudiesarerequired.Firstitisusefultolookatbilateralagriculturaltradefromtheperspectiveofintra-industrytrade.Second,itisinstructivetoanalyzethelevelofbilateralintra-industrytradeonagriculturalfrombothstaticanddynamicperspectivesanditsdeterminantsfromamoregeneralperspective.Alsotheissueisnotonlyexaminedthebilateraltradelevelonthewholebutalsotoeverychapteroftheagriculturalproducts.Toachievethisobjective,thispaperadoptsthecurrentinternationallyusedindicatorsofmarginalintra-industrytradeandHSclassificationcriteriatoanalyzethepresentsituationofintra-industrytradeonagriculturalproductsbetweenChinaandAustraliaandtoidentifythecharacteristicsofintra-industrytradeofthetwocountries.ThefindingshavepolicyimplicationsforforgingfuturetradeandeconomiccooperationbetweenAustraliaandChina.

二、Analysismethodanddata

（一）Themeasurementofintra-industrytrade

1．Grubel-Lloydindex

Atpresent,relativelycommonmeasurementofthedegreeofintra-industrytradeindicatorisGrubel-Lloydindex:

GLIi=1-{｜Xi-Mi｜/（Xi+Mi）}

whereGLIiistheintra-industryindexforagriculturalproducti,ifitisthecloserto1,meaningintra-industrytradeismoreimportant,otherwisethecloserto0indicatesthattradeinagriculturalproducts,inter-industrytradeismoreimportant.XiandMiareexportsandimportsinproducti.Wemeasurenotonlythelevelofintra-industrytradeofacertaintypeofindustrialproductsintheagriculturalindustrybutalsotheoverallagriculturalindustry.

GLIa=∑GLIi/n

wherenisthenumberofproducts,andGLIaistheaverageIITindexofIntra-industrytradeonagriculturalproductsofChina.

G-Lindexreflectsthelevelofintra-industrytradeforaparticulartypeofproductandtheindustryasawholeinasingleperiod.Itisastaticindicator.Theindexdoesnotreflecttradeincrementalchangesintradepatternsoftheindustryinsometime.However,itisimportanttoresearchonthedevelopmentofforeigntradethroughthechangesintradepatterns.Therefore,HamiltonandKniest（1991）begantoexploretheuseofmarginalintra-industrytradetomeasurethedynamicchangesofintra-industrytrade.Atpresent,Brüelhartmarginalintra-industrytradeindexandThom&McDowellmarginalintra-industrytradeindexarethewidelyusedindicatorsofmarginalintra-industrytrade.

2.Brülhartmarginalintra-industrytradeindex

Inordertoreflectthedynamiclevelofintra-industrytradeinacertainspanoftime,Brülhart（1994）raisedthemarginalintra-industrytradeindex:

BIi=1-{｜△Xi-△Mi∣/∣△Xi∣+∣△Mi∣}

whereBIiisthemarginalintra-industrytradeindexinacertainperiodoftimespanofagriculturalproducti,andi△Xiand△Mistandforexportandimporttradevolumechangesduringtwoperiods.WhereBIiisbetween0and1,andwhenBIiiscloserto1,itmeanstheincreasevolumeoftradeismainlycausedbyintra-industrytrade,onthecontrary,closerto0indicatesthattheincrementofsuchtradeinagriculturalproductsismainlycausedbyinter-industrytrade.WealsocanusetheweightedaveragemethodtocalculateBrülhartmarginalintra-industrytradeindexoftheentireagriculturalproducts.

BI=WiBIi=∑{｜△Xi｜+｜△Mi∣/∑（∣△Xi∣+∣△Mi∣）}×BIi

WhereWiistheproportionofagriculturalproductitothetotal